Цены на сельхозпродукцию в Зимбабве остаются значительно выше мировых из-за дефицита зерна

HARARE — Zimbabwe’s agricultural commodity prices continued to trade at substantial premiums to regional and international benchmarks last week, with tightening domestic maize supplies providing additional support to local prices, according to the Zimbabwe Financial Mail. Maize emerged as one of the strongest price movers, with the Zimbabwe Mercantile Exchange (ZMX) benchmark increasing 4.09% to US$365 a tonne, from approximately US$350 previously. Sunflower prices rose 5.8% to US$450 a tonne, while soya beans remained firm at US$550.70 a tonne, underscoring continued firmness across key agricultural commodities. The divergence between Zimbabwean prices and international benchmarks remains particularly pronounced in maize. The ZMX price of US$365 a tonne compares with approximately US$228.68 on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, US$277.20 on the Ghana Commodity Exchange, US$305 on the Nigerian Commodity Exchange and US$193.30 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. However, analysts say the headline premium needs to be considered alongside Zimbabwe’s import economics. ZMX said the estimated maize import parity price of US$404 a tonne remained substantially above the domestic benchmark, leaving locally produced grain about US$39 a tonne cheaper than the landed import-equivalent price. “The domestic price remains below the landed import-equivalent price,” ZMX said, indicating that local maize prices remain supported by the economics of replacing domestic supplies with imports. Supply shortage tightens maize market The physical market is showing evidence of tightening availability. Only 480 tonnes of white maize were offered by farmers against buyer requirements of about 3,000 tonnes, creating a significant supply deficit. Available grain in Harare was being offered at US$365 a tonne, while buyers across Harare, Mutare and Bulawayo indicated purchasing prices ranging between US$325 and US$350 a tonne. The disparity between available supply and buyer requirements has strengthened the bargaining position of farmers holding commercial grain. ZMX said the imbalance was consistent with a tightening commercial maize market and was providing sellers with greater negotiating leverage. There were no reported firm supply or demand volumes for yellow maize, although indicative farmer asking prices remained above buyer indications. The development comes as Zimbabwe’s domestic commodity market continues to operate under a complex interaction of local supply conditions, international prices and the cost of importing agricultural commodities. Soya beans and sunflower remain elevated Soya bean prices also maintained a significant premium over several international benchmarks. The ZMX price of US$550.70 a tonne compared with US$499.72 on the JSE, US$461.62 on the GCX and US$400 on the Agricultural Commodities Exchange, although it remained below the NCX benchmark of US$695. Import parity of approximately US$630 a tonne provides further potential support for domestic prices should local production prove insufficient to meet processors’ requirements. Sunflower showed an even wider gap between local pricing and import economics. At US$450 a tonne, the domestic price was above the ACE benchmark of US$350 but significantly below the JSE price of US$654.40. The estimated import parity of US$784 a tonne, however, suggests substantial upside protection for domestic prices if Zimbabwe needs to replace local supplies with imported sunflower. The contrasting benchmarks demonstrate why international prices alone do not necessarily determine the price paid by Zimbabwean buyers. Wheat market shows price resistance Wheat was trading at approximately US$470 a tonne on the ZMX, compared with US$377.01 on the JSE and US$528.36 on the NCX. Its estimated import parity stood at about US$507 a tonne, putting the domestic price relatively close to the landed import-equivalent level. ZMX said this limited the scope for domestic prices to decline materially without making imported wheat increasingly competitive. The physical wheat market, meanwhile, showed a different dynamic from maize. Farmers indicated approximately 5,000 tonnes of supply at US$490 a tonne, while buyers were indicating US$440–US$470. The gap suggests that sellers and buyers remain some distance apart on price expectations. Popcorn displayed a similar disconnect, with about 150 tonnes reportedly available at US$780–US$800 a tonne against buyer indications of around US$650. Domestic costs complicate international comparisons For market participants, the widening differential between Zimbabwean commodity prices and international exchanges cannot simply be interpreted as evidence of domestic shortages. ZMX said local prices also incorporate the cost of transport, financing, storage and distribution, as well as domestic supply conditions and import economics. “The persistent premium over international exchanges should therefore not be interpreted solely as a shortage premium,” ZMX said, pointing instead to the broader cost structure associated with supplying Zimbabwe’s market. The distinction is important for farmers, processors and commodity traders because import parity effectively establishes a ceiling against which domestic prices can be assessed, while local availability determines how close prices move towards that ceiling. For maize, the combination of constrained supply and a US$404-a-tonne import parity is providing a relatively strong price floor. For other commodities, thin reported volumes suggest that price discovery remains limited. ZMX said reported supply of soya beans, sunflower, sorghum, groundnuts and pulses remained limited or absent, leaving current market activity concentrated in a relatively narrow range of commodities. The exchange is scheduled to hold a live agricultural commodity auction at the Zimbabwe Agricultural Show on Wednesday, providing another opportunity for buyers and sellers to establish price signals as the domestic market enters a period of heightened attention to grain availability.