Узбекистан диверсифицирует трудовую миграцию: Европа и Азия становятся новыми рынками для рабочей силы

Uzbekistan is looking for new destinations for labor migration at a time when aging populations are creating worker shortages from Germany to Japan. For a country whose migration model has for decades been closely tied primarily to Russia, labor shortages in developed economies offer an opportunity to diversify, but they also require workers to meet significantly higher standards. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has analyzed the outlook for the global labor market through 2030. It expects demand for foreign workers to grow across sectors ranging from healthcare and construction to logistics and information technology. Europe is one of the largest potential markets. Aging populations and a shrinking working-age population are expected to intensify existing labor shortages. These shortages are expected to be particularly pronounced in engineering, construction, healthcare, and technology. Germany faces one of the most serious demographic challenges. The country’s Institute for Employment Research estimates that annual net immigration of around 400,000 people would be needed to keep its labor force potential broadly stable. Demand is expected to grow particularly rapidly in healthcare and elderly care. Germany already had nearly 5.7 million people officially classified as requiring care in 2023. In England, Skills England estimates that around 90,000 additional care workers and home carers could be needed between 2025 and 2030. Another growing labor market is linked to the energy transition. The construction and maintenance of solar and wind power facilities is increasing demand for installers, mechanics, engineers, and technical personnel. Major labor shortages are also expected in East Asia. Japan could face an overall shortage of around 6.4 million workers by 2030, according to a widely cited projection by Persol Research and Consulting. South Korea is also facing labor shortages in shipbuilding and other industrial sectors. Another potential destination is the Gulf. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are investing heavily in construction, tourism, transport, healthcare, and services as they diversify their economies. One 2025 forecast estimated that the UAE alone could add more than 1 million jobs by 2030. For Uzbekistan, these changes coincide with a gradual expansion in the geography of its own labor migration. Russia remains the main foreign labor market for Uzbek citizens, but tighter Russian migration rules and rising costs for workers are increasing interest in other destinations. In the first half of 2026, work-purpose entries into Russia by citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan fell by 15% compared with the same period a year earlier. Uzbekistan already organizes employment opportunities for its citizens in South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, and other countries. In its labor market review for the first quarter of 2026, the Central Bank specifically noted the continuing diversification of migration and an increase in the number of Uzbek citizens in Turkey and South Korea. The shift is also visible in remittances. Uzbekistan received $9.3 billion in cross-border transfers in the first half of 2026, up 13% from a year earlier. Transfers from the United Kingdom increased by 62%, those from European Union countries by 27%, and those from the United States by 19%. The Central Bank directly links this trend to the continuing diversification of labor migration destinations. These growth rates, however, are coming from a much smaller base. Russia still accounts for the majority of remittances and remains the largest labor market for Uzbek workers. In the first quarter of 2026, it accounted for 72.4% of transfers received by Uzbekistan, down from 77.6% a year earlier. The scale of the Russian market explains why it is difficult to quickly replace it with other destinations. Germany, Japan, and South Korea impose higher requirements for language skills, qualifications, and professional training. The requirements are particularly demanding in healthcare, engineering, and technical occupations. Uzbekistan’s own challenge is therefore changing as well. The traditional migration model has relied heavily on mass demand for workers with relatively low barriers to entry. The growing markets of Europe and East Asia more often need workers with formal qualifications and technical skills. Uzbekistan has a demographic advantage: its young and growing population is entering the labor market at a time when many wealthier economies are aging and seeing their working-age populations shrink. But turning that advantage into access to new labor markets will require better language and vocational training, alongside systems for recognizing qualifications and arranging legal employment.