Неопределенность стала новой нормой для индустрии садоводства Орегона из-за трудовых ограничений и торговых рисков

Uncertainty is nursery industry ‘s new norm Published 8:20 am Wednesday, September 2, 2026 A year ago, Oregon’s nursery industry was bracing for an economic downturn. While many of those fears never materialized, prolonged uncertainty has become the industry’s new norm as nurseries look ahead. The last 12 months have “been better than expected with all the headwinds that we’re experiencing,” said Jeff Stone, executive director and CEO of the Oregon Association of Nurseries. But, as nurseries plan for the coming year, they are grappling with a mounting list of unknowns related to labor restrictions, trade, production costs, and public policy that are largely outside their control. The industry still wears the crown as Oregon’s largest agricultural commodity by value. The state’s nurseries generated about $1.3 billion in sales in 2024, the latest figures available from the Oregon Department of Agriculture. They employ more than 10,400 workers, provide $487.4 million in annual payroll, and are represented by some 600 members of the Oregon Association of Nurseries, according to association statistics. The state also trails only California and Florida as the largest nursery producers and leads the nation in sales of conifers, shade trees, Christmas trees, and flowering trees. About 74% of gross sales are shipped to customers outside Oregon, including other states and countries, predominantly Canada. While sales have been stronger than expected over the past year, Stone said growers are facing pressure from multiple fronts. Transportation costs have spiraled, fertilizer prices strain production budgets, and labor expenses keep skyrocketing, in part due to Oregon-specific labor policies. “In the past, it feels like you’d have one of these challenges every four or five years,” said Tyler Muskers, owner of Oregon Flowers in Aurora and an OAN board member. “Well, now they’re coming at us every year, and there’s not enough time in between to adapt the company to absorb some of these challenges and costs.” Because the state’s nurseries compete nationally, growers often have little ability to raise prices enough to offset those increases without losing customers. Customers once paid a premium for Oregon-grown nursery stock because of its superior quality, said Amanda Staehely, owner of Columbia Nursery in Canby, but hit with labor costs that far exceed competitors like Tennessee, growers are testing the limits of what buyers will pay. “We’re pricing ourselves out of that competition,” she said. Trade policy has also become less predictable. Canada continues to be Oregon’s largest foreign customer, but Stone said some members have reported canceled orders as political tensions between the United States and Canada have fueled anti-American buying sentiment among consumers. “It’s something that’s completely out of our control,” Stone said. But the main issue that nursery owners and growers are losing sleep over is Oregon’s phased agricultural overtime law, he said. In the first phase in January 2025, the agricultural overtime threshold dropped from 55 to 48 hours per week, a requirement of House Bill 4002. Beginning on Jan. 1, 2027, the overtime threshold will drop again, from 48 to 40 hours per week. Many nursery operations cannot absorb those additional labor costs without trimming employee hours, Stone said. Unlike factory production, nursery work revolves around living plants that must be planted, pruned, watered, and shipped when conditions demand. “We’re not a widget factory,” Stone said. “These are live plants.” In response, more growers are investing in automation, expanding their use of the federal H-2A guest worker program, and choosing plants that require less manual labor over time. Oregon Flowers bought one automated flower-processing line last year and is purchasing two more this year. Muskers said the company may add a robot next year to stack and move products. “It just prompted us to buy more equipment and run less hours, so we’re just more efficient, faster,” he said. Staehely described the latest phase of the overtime law as “dire” for growers. Columbia Nursery has responded by changing some of its product line, reducing some of its specialty plants such as rare dwarf conifers, which require hand watering and pruning. “These items that take real people working on them, we’re having to do less of because we can’t do those overtime hours,” Staehely said. One major uncertainty, however, has been temporarily resolved. Earlier this year, growers feared the expiration of funding for Oregon’s Japanese beetle eradication program could unleash shipping restrictions from other states. Lawmakers ultimately restored funding after OAN and others advocated it, highlighting how devastating the alternative would be. The funding enabled the Oregon Department of Agriculture to continue the eradication effort and preserve open shipping lines for Oregon-grown nursery stock. Stone called the outcome a major victory for the industry. “If we didn’t work this out,” he said, “the first question you asked me, ‘How was the year?’ would have been vastly different.” Looking ahead, Stone believes Oregon’s nursery industry can adapt to whatever comes next within limits. “Nurseries are resilient and they can deal with a lot of stuff,” he said, “if they’re able to plan for it.”