UBS прогнозирует сохранение ставки ФРС на прежнем уровне на фоне роста цен на жилье и инвестиций в ИИ

UBS, the Swiss bank, expects the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged despite competing pressures from a strained housing market and strong artificial intelligence (AI) investment. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who is approaching 100 days in office, faces this dilemma as the annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole runs from Thursday to Saturday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 in July to hold the benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, with three regional presidents voting for an immediate rate increase. Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates have spiked to 6.66%, a one-year high, with a typical family now spending 34% of income on payments for a median-priced home, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Weekly mortgage applications have fallen 6.4% and annual home sales have slowed to around four million units, UBS said, well below the historical norm of 5.2 million. Technology companies are expected to invest $820 billion in data centres this year, spending that UBS says is largely insulated from borrowing costs. Surging memory chip prices linked to AI demand have added 20 to 30 basis points to core inflation, UBS estimates, but the bank considers the effect a temporary bottleneck rather than broader overheating. Wage inflation remains subdued compared with the dotcom boom, when it approached 6%, while UBS argues that AI could restrain wage pressures through workforce automation.