Серебряный рынок 2026 года: структурный дефицит и риск «сжатия» цен

Continues here Is There a Silver Shortage in 2026? The Silver Squeeze, Explained The Silver Squeeze, Explained As long as the paper market dwarfs deliverable metal and the deficit keeps thinning the float, the kindling remains in place. TL;DR: Is there a silver shortage? Authored by GoldFix Short answer: no, not the empty-vault, can’t-buy-a-coin shortage the doom crowd sells. What is real is a structural deficit and that is enough. In 2026, the silver market is on track for its sixth straight year of using more metal than mines and recycling can supply. That keeps draining above-ground stockpiles, and those stockpiles are not infinite. A silver squeeze happens when that slow physical drain collides with a paper market many times larger than the metal behind it. Buyers demand actual bars, shorts who sold silver they never owned scramble to cover, and price gaps higher. We saw the live version in early 2026, when silver ripped out of the $80s, crossed $100, and printed an all-time high of $121.62 on January 29, 2026. This page is a breakdown of some of the plumbing: COMEX vs. LBMA, paper vs. physical, and the deficit math. So the next time the tape moves, you’re reading it, not reacting to it. What is a silver squeeze, actually? A short squeeze is simple in principle: more people are obligated to deliver or buy back something than can easily be sourced, so price is forced higher until sellers appear. Silver adds a physical twist. The futures and unallocated markets let players go short, meaning they promise silver, in sizes far larger than the metal actually sitting in vaults. That works fine until it doesn’t. As long as almost nobody asks for delivery, the game runs. A squeeze begins when enough buyers do ask for bars, all at once, and shorts have to either find real metal, which is scarce and slow, or buy their positions back, which is expensive and fast. Price becomes the release valve. Here is the distinction most headlines miss: a squeeze does not mean the world ran out of silver. It is a settlement stress, a mismatch between paper claims and deliverable metal. It shows up as a violent price move long before any vault literally empties. It is also important to separate two things that constantly get mashed together. A corner is when one buyer deliberately accumulates enough of the deliverable supply that shorts cannot source metal to settle. A squeeze is the broader, usually leaderless version. No mastermind. Just a crowd reaching for physical at the same time while the float is thin. Most modern silver episodes are squeezes, not corners. That is why they usually ignite off a news catalyst or a social-media wave instead of one billionaire’s trade. Same mechanism, different spark. Is there really a silver shortage? The deficit, in plain English Here is the part that actually is about physical supply. The Silver Institute expects 2026 to be the sixth consecutive year the silver market runs a deficit, with demand outrunning mine output plus recycling. The projected gap is a meaningful 67 million ounces against total supply near 1.05 billion ounces. Year after year, that gap gets covered by drawing down above-ground inventories built up over decades. A buffer only drains once.