Аналитик оценивает вероятность успешного переворота в США в 2025 году в 25%

September 7, Labor Day 2026 Chances of attempted Coup: 100% Chances of a successful Coup: 25% Happy Labor Day!, 2026 The chances of a successful Coup 2025 have remained the same since May 1, when they dropped 10% from Trump’s second election because of the Iran War and other failures. They have not changed because the situation remains….fluid. If you want to read all of my Coup2025 predictions and other analysis, such as the role of the U.S. military in all thi s or on thinking about a General Strike to resist a coup, see my website.       Some things have made the chances of a Trump 2025 Coup succeeding better, some worse. They will be detailed below. But first let us look at the November elections and why they are so important.  Labor Day used to be the traditional date for campaigning in major elections kicking off. No longer. Now, since the survival of democracy is at stake, every election is major, the campaigning is continuous. But this election, the Midterms in Trump’s second ascension, is the most important. Not just because it is the latest election, but because Trump and the forces that are trying to use him know that if there is a fair election the chances of Coup 2025 succeeding drop precipitously…as in off a cliff. But, if the Trump regime can disrupt the elections enough to keep control of the Senate, or ideally for them to even implement some martial law and seize control over some elections making a 2028 coup much easier, then we are in deep trouble. While the 2020 Coup attempt was almost laughable, the current effort is quite serious. Planned out in Project 2025, it has consciously aimed at weakening democratic (as in small d) centers of power and creating the context for the abrogation of all real power to the Executive Branch, led by Donald Trump.  That is their biggest problem. Donald Trump is a very weak strongman to build a cult around, let alone give absolute power to.  And he is clearly in cognitive decline, incapable of finessing the Epstein files, firing up his base, or hiding his pathetic greed for gold and attention. His Iran and tariff wars are unforced errors that will prove fatal to Republican control of Congress if a semi-legitimate election is held.  Still, in the other important centers of power the signs are mixed: Elections. So far, the vast majority of direct attempts to subvert the elections have been blocked by the courts, but the latest (and least legal so far) attempt using the Post Office to take control of all voter lists and purge them has not yet been stopped by the Supreme Court. However, in their twisty attempts to empower Trump they will have to achieve new heights of hypocrisy and anti-democratic self-deception in order to grant Trump’s appeal to sabotage the election through USPS/Palantir cleansing of the voter rolls.. Purging the voter rolls of possible Democratic votes is not a new tactic. It helped capture the presidency for George W. Bush when the Florida Governor, his brother Jeb, rejected Black voter ballots at 4 times the rate of white’s. Thus, almost stealing the Florida vote count but it turned out Al Gore still narrowly won. The U.S. Supreme Court had to step in to seal the thef t. Not that is how you have a legal coup! Lower courts have blocked the USPS, and the Federal government, becoming the deciding authority for who gets to vote anywhere in the U.S., most recently on September 4. Trump has appealed and as of this writing the U.S. Supreme Court has refused to reject this approach yet, recently claiming the very States that the Constitution grants sole authority for managing elections do not have standing! Still, most experts opine that it is too late for this approach to work. Most likely, any effective election preemption will involve intervention at the polls and stopping vote counting while seizing ballots. But it turns out, even many Republicans object to election tampering. This was clear in 2020 when the Republican officials in Georgia in charge of the elections refused Trump’s outright demand they “find 11,780 votes” so he could steal the state’s electoral votes. More recently, the Republican governor of Wyoming and the Laramie Chief Election Clerk, also a Republican, have strongly objected to aggressive Federal poll watchers from the DOJ. The “inspectors” didn’t offer credentials while demanding voter data. Wyoming wasn’t pleased. Gov. Mark Gordon said, “I feel very strongly about federal government coming in and taking our guns. I don’t like that. And I don’t like federal government coming in and taking our votes either.” Still, with the right Reichstag Fire or false flag attack there could be a serious attempt to steal the election, so all attempts to prevent a November election coup need to be supported —from the marshaling of lawyers by liberals to the organizing of poll protectors by unions and communities to mass protests, if necessary a general strike.  The Judiciary. While Coup 2025, and the Trump Imperial Presidency, have overwhelming lost law suits at all the lower levels of the judiciary in the United States, at the highest levels, especially the U.S. Supreme Court, the record is decidedly more mixed. This is profoundly disquieting, because to a large extent if Trump tries a full coup, the U.S. military will follow the lead of the Supreme Court, as they should. They swear an oath to the Constitution, after all, even if that court orders the return of escaped slaves, pretends separate but equal is possible, or grants the President King-like powers.  The U.S. Military. While Hegsgeth and other culture warriors have tried to subvert the basic culture of the U.S. military, including the openly racist and sexist blocking of promotions, they have not succeeded yet. It is concerning that the stupid, irrational random murdering of at least 227 brown men in small boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific continues, an ongoing war crime that some day some people will certainly be prosecuted for.  It is even more concerning that Hegsgeth open racist and sexist denial of promotions to women and people of color, and the resignations in protest of other officers, is changing the “color’ of top leadership and spreading fear, with over 10% of top uniformed positions empty. He has inserted rightwing veterans from the blogosphere into dozens of positions and has sent military lawyers to help prosecute ICE detainees.    Early in is time as Secretary of Defense I thought most of Hegsgeth’s personnel moves were just his personal racism and sexism. But while he is certainly acting on those views, it is also clear that some people in DoD, to the very top, are working toward getting the military to support not only a flimsy (but perhaps validated by the Supreme Court we have now) national emergency, but even acts not rubber stamped by the Court, such as the full imposition of martial law and suspension of future elections “until the crisis is over.”        But overall it seems the military is still led by an majority of officers who know their duty, and continues to try and do its duty, even if it is to a commander-in[chief who despises them (this they know…which is why Trump is the most unpopular President among the military ever) and asks them to win wars when it is impossible.  We can’t blame the military for promulgating illegal wars because it is Congress, and the people of the U.S. who have been allowing this for decades (if not centuries), in the service of Manifest Destiny (aka the U.S. Empire). While the latest attacks on Iran, starting with assassinating the very Iranian leaders the U.S. and Israel were negotiating with, have been particularly dishonorable they don’t really depart from U.S. Imperial policy, going back to the first time settlers in North America lied to, killed and stole lands from the people already there.  Since the U.S. became the dominant Empire in the world after World War II Congress gifted its war-making powers totally over to the Imperial Presidency. Trump has made full and crazy use of this license.  These are the main forces to watch, but there are a few other data points worth keeping track of:  Trump’s first administration included a significant number of conservative non-MAGA Republicans and professional military men. We now know they played a major role in restraining Trump from most of his most authoritarian or just plain crazy actions. Many of them are now open critics of Trump and Coup 2025. The current administration is different. It is a pathocracy — a government of psychopaths. It has been clear for some time that Trump is a psychopath with narcissistic personality disorder. But what has only recently become undeniable is that whole institutions can become self-reinforcing alliances of psychopaths and that is clearly what we have now, top to bottom, in the Executive Branch of the United States of America. * It is now clear that the Epstein class that controls the commanding heights in Washington, D.C., Wall Street., and Silicon Valley—are not committed to the system codified in the U.S. Constitution. This has been pretty much true throughout the Republic’s 250 years but recently the gap between that 1% and the rest of us has become gapping. Today, the Epstein class doesn’t even pretend to support democracy. Corporations that supported the Voting Rights Act now openly give money to Republican State Attorney Generals spreading election denial.  Much MAGA evil is not directly related to Coup 2025. Obama and Biden deported shocking numbers of people but the Trump campaign is fundamentally different. Besides deporting lots of brown people, it seems designed to create the infrastructure of surveillance systems, a large militarized and politicized federal police force, and concentration camps…you know, for concentrating people who deserve to be locked up.  Criminalizing dissent and fabricating “official” terrorist designations, even groups, out of political beliefs—such as opposing fascism and genocide—is creating the justification for mass arrests under martial law. But as with the shoddy claims of armies of undocumented people voting, and Trump’s claim that Democrats (big D) are traitors and Communists, the evidence is so weak it might not be enough to convince the courts, local officials, or the public that the end of democracy is necessary to save it from antifa, Palestine Action, and the Democratic Socialists of America. * The labeling of all opponents inhuman, including the Democratic Party, is a step toward something even darker. While making dissent a crime is McCarthyism on steroids, calling half of America inhuman is a big step toward a final solution that will save the U.S. for Aryan Christianity. This comes from the top, of course, with Vance echoing Trump…. But it is now being taken up by what can best be described as foot soldiers for fascism. Unhuman is a NYT bestselling book that argues anyone that supports socialist ideals is not a human. Trump has strongly endorsed it. Apparently, the crony socialism Trump practices is morally beyond reproach but seek justice for working people? That’s inhuman!