Исследование предсказывает прекращение добычи нефти в Калифорнии к 2055 году

A new academic study predicts that California's in-state oil and gas production will reach zero between 2042 and 2055, with industry workers transitioning to other sectors and Kern County maintaining strong public service funding. The report from UC Merced challenges local assumptions about the relationship between oil production, revenue, jobs, and government budgets, emphasizing the need for state investment in worker training, oil-field remediation, and a stabilization fund for economic disruptions. Local reactions to the report have been skeptical, with industry representatives criticizing what they see as politically driven attacks on workers and government policies that hinder energy production, while community leaders stress the importance of supporting displaced oil workers and investing in the county's future economic potential. A new academic study on California's transition away from oil and gas envisions a time between 2042 and 2055 when in-state production finally falls to zero, industry workers have found comparable jobs in other industries and funding for public services in Kern County holds strong. It says getting there will take substantial state investment in areas like training and other help for industry workers, greater investment in oil-field remediation, focused support for certain public sectors and creation of a stabilization fund for use in "moments" of economic disruption. The report from the University of California, Merced's Community and Labor Center may help refine the state's "high road" plan for achieving carbon neutrality by 2045. Most notably, it challenges local assumptions about the relationship between oil production, revenue, jobs and government budgets. Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement "While oil and gas decline is likely to continue in the coming years — due to rising concerns with climate change and increasing investment in renewable energy — California counties are hardly dependent on oil and gas property taxes for fiscal stability," the report states. Local reaction has been skeptical, not just within the industry but in government. A county spokeswoman noted the university's researchers did not consult Kern's budget division. She said by email the report fails to recognize the county's relatively steady general fund balance partly reflects disciplined efforts to save for large projects such as a new animal control facility. Moreover, oil continues to be a major local industry whose benefits extend beyond its still-substantial property tax contributions, spokeswoman Erin Briscoe-Clarke wrote. Advertisement Advertisement Chairman Phillip Peters of the county Board of Supervisors pointed to what he termed a "glaring contradiction" in a state policy of intentionally shrinking an industry Californians still rely on while ramping up its "energy outsourcing policy." He took the opportunity to criticize continued efforts to deny counties property tax revenue from solar projects they host. "If Sacramento truly wants a just transition, it should start by treating the communities powering California's energy future as partners, not as places to impose the costs," Peters said by email. Industry was no less critical of the report. Western States Petroleum Association spokesman Jim Stanley called for moving away from "politically driven attacks that hurt workers and focus on producing the energy we need here at home." Advertisement Advertisement CEO Rock Zierman of the California Independent Petroleum Association noted half of Kern's top 10 taxpayers this year are oil producers, and he asserted that the production declines the report highlights are "manmade by government, not natural." Executive Director Michael Turnipseed at the Kern County Taxpayers Association said the report blurs the distinction between losing a single revenue line and losing "an irreplaceable industrial tax base" whose financial backing for specific towns and special districts disproportionately affects areas like Taft and Maricopa. The bright side, he said by email, is that Kern County has what the next economy needs: available industrial land, surplus power, existing heavy-industry permitting and a skilled technical workforce. "That is the foundation for carbon management, data centers, advanced manufacturing and next-generation energy," Turnipseed wrote. Advertisement Advertisement "The only real question is whether we put those assets to work and bring new taxable value onto the roll or let them idle and call the idling a transition. Managing the end of oil and building what comes after it are not two projects. They are one." Some of the work recommended in the report has begun on a limited level. Plugging and abandonment of wells has become more regular, and steps have been taken to begin to address the large backlog of "orphan" wells. Additionally, finding alternative employment for local oil workers has begun in Kern. More than 200 former oil-field workers in the county have found new employment under an $11.2 million state grant from 2024, according to Employers' Training Resource, a government supported jobs agency. There is a concern, though, that retraining may require a much bigger commitment to help support breadwinners who aren't bringing home a paycheck during what would ideally be many months of instruction. Advertisement Advertisement "When it comes to this idea of just, well you know, let's just end fossil fuels and let's find jobs for these folks, the No. 1 thing we've found for these folks, in order to be trained in a completely new field, that takes time," said Chief Workforce Development Officer Brandon Evans at ETR. The report, titled "Fueling Transitions: California's Oil and Gas Industry Decline, and its Implications for Employment, Property Taxes, and County Budgets," highlights a more than 20-year slide in state production, in which volume flattened only in the years when prices held high in the early 2010s. It shows industry property tax contributions peaked and plummeted at different points during that period. The study noted the significant pay premium oil workers earn relative to their educational level. It also acknowledged that while Kern's general fund has stayed relatively healthy, county budget cuts over the years have eliminated a relatively large number of jobs in public health. Researchers at UC Merced, in consultation with a community advisory board consisting of labor unions and community organizations, suggested the state create social and economic assistance, or programmatic support, for displaced oil and gas workers. Advertisement Advertisement They called for refinery and oil-field remediation programs. They said maybe the state should prioritize displaced oil workers in state hiring or procurement policies. Another recommendation was the state set up a fund to cover times of economic disruption when local governments struggle to maintain minimum spending and employment in key areas of public and social service.