Альманах «Старый фермер» предсказал мягкую зиму с дефицитом снега для Нью-Гэмпшира и Коннектикута

While many in the Northeast are gearing up for the onset of fall and leaf peeping season, America’s oldest continuously published periodical is already making predictions for the winter season, and it’s looking like a mix of rain, sleet, and wet snow for Connecticut. The New Hampshire-based Old Farmer’s Almanac recently released in its extended winter forecast, predicting that the Northeast will face a complicated, tricky winter pattern featuring an unpredictable mix of rain, sleet and heavy inland snow. The Old Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1792, claims to have 80% accuracy in its predictions, according to its publisher. The publication uses solar science, climatology and meteorology in deciding its predictions. “Winter 2026–2027 is shaping up to be a season of sharp contrasts, with an active southern storm track, quick bursts of snow and bitter cold across the north, and a tricky mix of rain, sleet, ice, and heavy wet snow in the Northeast. Keep the shovel, rain boots, and ice scraper close — this winter may bring plenty of surprises,” the almanac said. Temperatures are expected to be above normal in the Northeast. The coldest periods will be from early and mid-January with precipitation below normal. Snowfall is predicted to be below normal in the north and above normal in the southern part of the Northeast. The snowiest periods are predicted from mid- and late December, mid-January, and early and late March. The Northeast may face one of the season’s most complicated winter patterns, according to the almanac. “Coastal communities could receive more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas may be hit by several rounds of heavy, wet snow — particularly during January and February. Small shifts in storm tracks and temperatures could make the difference between rain, sleet, freezing rain and accumulating snow,” the almanac said. Chad Merrill, senior meteorologist and long range forecaster with AccuWeather, said the weather agency predicts a mostly mild fall and beginning winter season due to the effects of Niño. El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months. There have been 27 El Niños since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years. The last one, a mild El Niño, happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024. Last year, the Hartford region logged its 14th snowiest winter season on record, with 52.3 inches of snow between December through the end of February, according to Merrill. This year, however, may shape up to be very different, which is welcome news for those seeking less snow to shovel. “The polar jet is expected to be fairly weak. It will take a fairly unique combination of cold air in place and moisture at the same time to bring a good bit of snow. So the overall prediction will most likely be that any snowfall that comes will be just a few storm events and not multiple events like last winter. The prediction is we will see less snowfall due to the impacts of El Niño,” Merrill said. During previous El Niño years, snowfall is usually less than average with above average temperatures, according to Merrill. In 2015-16, the last year of a super El Niño event, the Hartford area logged its 21st least snowiest year on record. In 1992, during a fairly moderate El Niño year, the Hartford area logged just 13 inches of snow. “The snow signal would be how much cold air is available,” Merrill said. “The interior sections of the country have a chance to log some real snowfall. But that would be tough for southern New England. Some early snowfall is not out of the question in late November or early December. But that won’t set the tone for the entire winter season. Early snow events most likely will be wet or mixed precipitation events.” Merrill said that of the top 10 warmest winters on record in the Hartford area, three were either strong or moderate El Niño years. He said the strong historical trend will likely continue into this winter season. In 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24, El Niño events created some of the most mild winters on record in Connecticut. “Last year saw a lot of snow in the Hartford region with multiple storm events,” he said. “This year, its shaping up to be a much more mild winter season with less snowfall.” Stephen Underwood can be reached at [email protected].