Канадский эксперт предостерег, что Пакистан может нарушить ядерный табу из-за слабости государства

Geopolitical discourse has increasingly turned toward South Asian strategic stability following provocative comments by Chinese-born Canadian educator and commentator Professor Jiang Xueqin during an appearance on popular YouTuber Raj Shamani’s podcast. When probed on which nation might break the decades-long global nuclear taboo, Professor Jiang offered a stark and alarming assessment pointing toward India’s western neighbor. The Asymmetry of Nuclear Postures While acknowledging a broad international consensus against the actual deployment of nuclear weapons in modern warfare, Professor Jiang stated that if forced to speculate on a flashpoint, the risk centers squarely on South Asia. His analysis relies heavily on the profound doctrinal contrast between New Delhi and Islamabad: India’s No First Use (NFU): India maintains a clear, declared NFU policy, anchoring its nuclear capability strictly around strategic deterrence against nuclear coercion. Indiatimes - Strategic Ambiguity: Conversely, Pakistan has historically refused to adopt an NFU posture, treating its nuclear arsenal as an asymmetric equalizer to offset conventional military imbalances vis-à-vis India’s larger armed forces. Indiatimes Institutional Fragility and Escalation Risks Elaborating on his prediction, Professor Jiang characterized Pakistan as a weak, economically distressed, and politically fragmented state. He argued that structural disarray and internal institutional vulnerability severely complicate the secure command and control of weapons of mass destruction during a high-stakes military crisis. “India doesn’t have to use nuclear weapons against Islamabad, whereas Pakistan has to in order to survive against India,” Jiang remarked, emphasizing that severe conventional disadvantages combined with internal instability could drive a cornered administration toward extreme escalatory options. The commentary has reignited intense global debate among defense analysts regarding the safety margins of nuclear deterrence, command integrity, and crisis management frameworks in developing asymmetric theaters. To watch the full discussion on geopolitical predictions and global power dynamics, you can check out Why Professor Jiang thinks Pakistan could use nuclear weapons first