Старение населения и климатические риски: новые вызовы для кредиторов и инвесторов

Make sure that your air conditioning is in good condition, as well as clients’. Loan servicers are wondering about their collateral: “Heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year. The powerful 2023-24 El Nino contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and we should not be surprised if this record is broken. El Nino is a natural part of the weather cycle, and is not caused by climate change.” Weather prediction can be dicey, especially months in advance, but predicting population trends that lenders and investors should be aware of is easier. The world is getting older, faster than ever before. In the U.S., the share of population age 65 and over is projected to jump from 18.9 percent in 2025 to 23.4 percent by 2060. Despite continued growth of its older population, the nation will still be younger than nearly half the world’s countries by 2060. “In 2025, the United States ranked as the 48th oldest country out of 227… “By 2060, the country will fall to 110th place because countries in other regions are aging much more rapidly.” By 2025, for the first time in human history, the share of adults age 65 and over outnumbered the share of children ages 0 to 5 in the world’s population, a gap projected to increase in the coming years. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loan’s loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with RETR’s Steven Wynands on putting mortgage and real estate data in the hands of originators.) Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services More professionals are looking at reverse mortgages to reengage clients with strong home equity who may be living on a limited or fixed income. What’s holding you back? HomeSafe Second, a second-lien reverse mortgage, gives you another way to help senior homeowners leverage their equity. Roughly 36 percent of homeowners aged 75+ are denied a HELOC. That represents a meaningful share of otherwise viable borrowers who may be turned away from traditional financing. If you’re running into deals that don’t fit traditional eligibility requirements, HomeSafe Second could help you capture volume that might otherwise be lost. Fill out this form to get a whitepaper on the $14.5 trillion senior home equity market. Finance of America | NMLS 2285 Renovation lending doesn't have to feel overly intimidating. Whether you're launching a new renovation lending platform, fixing one that isn't working, or ready to scale production, Jennifer "The Reno Gal®" Goldsby helps lenders prevent the problems that make renovation lending unnecessarily difficult. From program development, workflows and training to LOS enhancements, process audits and post-closing strategy, tap into more than two decades of specialized renovation lending experience instead of learning everything the hard way. Want a preview? Jennifer will join other industry experts at the Mortgage Bankers Association's upcoming Expanding Production Through Construction and Renovation Lending workshop, sharing practical insights on the renovation loan lifecycle, where transactions commonly break down, lessons learned in the field, and considerations for building a successful renovation lending platform. Need help untangling your renovation lending challenges? Let's talk. Rural Property: More land, more lending possibilities. American Heritage Lending (AHL) has expanded its All-Star Program to accept eligible rural properties, giving mortgage professionals more options for borrowers looking beyond traditional suburban markets. Rural property financing is available with a minimum of 680 FICO and up to 80 percent LTV on purchases, 75 percent LTV on rate-and-term refinances, and 70 percent LTV on cash-out refinances. Eligible properties may include up to 10 acres and must be located on a paved road, with at least two comparable sales located within five miles of the subject property. Have a rural scenario? Connect with AHL today to see how its flexible non-QM solutions can help get it closed. Program terms, eligibility, and restrictions apply. Contact James Gueltzow or visit www.ahlendtpo.com. “AI gives LOs, processors, and underwriters the same tools as tech engineers, which they’re using daily with or without permission. The lender goal isn’t to squash this; it’s to operationalize and scale it. Our CI&T mortgage team helps lenders find these ground-level AI use cases, then prioritize custom builds/integrations into your current tech stack in months, not quarters. This is how you get faster tools your teams actually want, need, and use. No more endless adoption battles with off-the-shelf SaaS because the winning ideas now come directly from the trenches. This is how it’s done in the AI era. Let’s compare notes on how to actually get it done. We’ll be at the Digital Mortgage Conference September 15-17. Please reach out to Tim Von Kaenel and Dawn Svedberg to connect.” How much time and money are your company investing in training? What if your company had live mortgage training, teaching subjects you need, when you need them? The solution is interactive training that actually teaches, uses practical examples, focuses on real situations teams face, helping keep the company compliant. Mortgage Education Institute (MEI) is your live training resource. From live NMLS CE webinars and in-person classes to private company training built around your priorities, MEI makes education engaging, practical, and enjoyable. In addition to education, MEI provides compliance training and compliance support services, including policies and procedures and BSA/AML Independent Audits. Whether you need recurring company training, private NMLS CE, or compliance support, MEI brings mortgage education and compliance together, turning complex requirements into practical, real-world training everyone can understand, apply, and actually enjoy. MEI creates mortgage education that engages, energizes & empowers mortgage professionals. Need company training? Contact MEI. Lawyers, compliance officers, risk executives, and consumer finance leaders: this one is for you. Join Saul Ewing LLP’s Consumer Financial Services group for a free CLE webinar on September 30th from 12-3:20 PM ET: “From Algorithm to Enforcement: AI Risk Across the Consumer Finance Lifecycle.” Artificial intelligence is reshaping consumer finance - and intensifying regulatory and litigation scrutiny. This program will examine how AI-related risks develop, where regulatory regimes intersect, and how governance gaps can escalate into investigations and courtroom disputes. Attendees will gain practical strategies to strengthen compliance frameworks and mitigate emerging AI litigation and enforcement exposure. Click here to learn more and register! On September 17, MortgageFlex will showcase LoanQuest at the inaugural Chrisman Demo Days, demonstrating how lenders and servicers can modernize operations through a unified, cloud-native platform spanning origination, servicing, default management, workflow automation, and AI. Built on accessible screen-level APIs, LoanQuest exposes real business functions that enable rapid integration, automation, and innovation without the constraints of legacy technology. Attendees will see how MortgageFlex's AI-forward approach keeps organizations in control through governed workflows, AI agents, approvals, compliance checks, and complete auditability. Through LQ Orchestration, lenders can leverage MortgageFlex AI, integrate third-party AI services, deploy their own agents, and create dynamic workflow functions. A forthcoming AI Marketplace will expand access to MortgageFlex-built, client-developed, and third-party agents. The result is lower origination costs, streamlined servicing, greater efficiency, improved borrower experiences, and higher customer satisfaction that strengthens retention and supports growth. Every action remains transparent, compliant, auditable, and lender-controlled. AI Thinks. You Control. LoanQuest Executes. For more information, contact John McCrea. Affordability pressure doesn't disappear when the loan closes. It comes back later as repurchase risk. Your borrowers are stretched, leaving less room for errors in the file. Truework, a Checkr company, verifies income, employment, and assets before you close, replacing error-prone processes with fast, automated reports pulled directly from sources. Lenders see up to 50 percent cost savings on verifications, with faster turn times and higher accuracy. Learn more. Whether you book a hotel room directly, through a travel agent, or on a third-party site like Expedia, you still expect the same room, amenities, and quality of service. nCino’s new TPO Experience brings that same consistency to mortgage origination. Retail and brokered loans may come through different channels, but lenders using ICE Mortgage Technology’s Encompass LOS can now manage both through the nCino Mortgage Point of Sale. TPO loans are routed to the right loan officer and synced to Encompass with the proper channel information, while borrowers get the same experience applying, uploading documents, and tracking loan status. See how nCino gives every borrower a 5-star stay, no matter how they book. Underwriting at the Speed of Now. The future of mortgage underwriting isn’t coming. It’s here, and Gateless is already ahead of it. Gateless Smart Underwrite® combines speed, precision, and intelligent automation to deliver underwriting outcomes lenders can act on with confidence. Smart Underwrite® processes a real loan file in minutes, not hours. Documents are processed rapidly; income is calculated with precision, and the results demonstrate a level of speed and accuracy that raises the bar for automated underwriting. The proof is in the numbers: 1.2M applications. 230K closed loans. ZERO buybacks. 99.9 percent accuracy. While others are working to catch up, Gateless is pushing the technology forward, automating more of the underwriting process and giving lenders the capacity to move faster without adding headcount. The standard is changing. Gateless is setting it. Gateless Smart Underwrite®. Automate Intelligently. Scale Logically. Chrisman Demo Day is a free perk for all Chrisman Marketplace members. If you're a technology or service provider and haven't joined the Marketplace yet, reach out to Jake Perkins at [email protected] to learn more. The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at [email protected]. Capital Markets With mortgage rates still elevated and prepayment risk muted, investors are favoring longer-duration exposure lower in the coupon stack. GSE and bank demand for Agency MBS has slowed, despite August Agency MBS supply rising to $116 billion, up 4.6 percent from July and 5 percent year-over-year, but the increase was largely seasonal rather than a sign of renewed refinancing activity, with higher mortgage rates pushing refinance-driven issuance to its lowest share in a year while purchase volumes remained relatively stable. Keep in mind that September is historically the weakest month for MBS performance; the preferred strategy remains capital preservation, low-payup pools, and a short-duration posture. MBS loan production was up 3.3 percent from August 2025, with Ginnie Mae production particularly strong. Conventional 30-year UMBS issuance jumped 13 percent month-over-month in August and shifted decisively toward higher coupons as borrowers’ rates remained around 6.7 percent overall. For mortgage-backed securities, the resulting slowdown in prepayments is extending aggregate MBS duration to a year-to-date high of 5.75 years, increasing sensitivity to further rate moves. That more than 96 percent of borrowers have no refinancing incentive also improves convexity and limits near-term prepayment risk. Shorter-duration securities, such as Fannie Mae 15-years, may therefore offer relative protection if rates remain elevated. The supply mix is moving up in coupon and increasingly reflecting purchase activity rather than refinance-driven turnover. MSR valuation and MSR risk are related, but traditional rate and spread factors explain relatively little of current bulk valuation levels. They do remain effective at explaining month-to-month price movements, meaning uncertainty about an asset’s value does not necessarily make it difficult to hedge. For portfolio construction and stress testing, historical lookbacks can provide valuable understanding of how MSRs behave when rates, curves, mortgage spreads, and liquidity shift simultaneously, while also defining the range of outcomes that forward-looking models may miss. Rather than relying on a single multiple, duration, or convexity estimate, effective MSR risk management requires comparing forward-looking models with long-term realized behavior, recognizing where they diverge, and building hedges that remain directionally sound across changing market cycles. In terms of news impacting mortgage rates, Fed Governor Waller said yesterday that he would vote to hold the fed funds rate range steady at the FOMC meeting later this month if there are no negative surprises in upcoming data. So, let’s review some data. August data showed services activity accelerated, with ISM Services PMI rising to 55.4 percent and S&P Global’s final reading reaching 56.5, but persistently elevated input costs raise the risk of continued price pass-through and inflation. The wider-than-expected $88.6 billion trade deficit is likely to weigh on Q3 GDP growth, although a downward revision in unit labor-cost growth to 1.2 percent bodes well for inflation relief. The labor market also remains relatively healthy, with initial claims at just 206k signaling continued low layoffs. While growth is holding up, sticky service-sector costs could make it harder for the Fed to ease policy aggressively. After The ADP Employment Change report pointed to the addition of 38k nonfarm payrolls in August (versus 47k expectations) today’s payrolls report is likely to set the stage rather than determine the Fed’s September 16 decision, with August CPI and PPI ultimately carrying the most weight in determining whether policymakers deliver a “hawkish hold” or hike rates. Today brings the all-important August jobs report. Nonfarm Payrolls were +162k versus expectations of +45k in August after a -23k reading in July. The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, unchanged as expected. With the Fed increasingly focused on the stability of the labor market rather than weak headline job growth, the strong jobs numbers are pushing the narrative for a rate increase by the Fed, leaving the inflation data as the determining factor of whether underlying price pressures have eased enough to justify holding rates or instead force the Fed to tighten later this month. After the strong employment news Agency MBS prices are worse .125-.250 versus Thursday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 4.41, and the 10-year yielding 4.79 after closing yesterday at 4.76 percent: the yield curve is flattening.