Строительство нового российского военно-морского база в Абхазии замедлилось

Russia quietly forged ahead with work on a site touted as a new Black Sea naval base last year, but satellite imagery shows construction slowed down in recent months, suggesting Moscow has de-prioritized building an alternative haven for its military ships further away from Ukraine's reach. Images seen by Newsweek and reviewed by analysts suggests a flurry of construction took place at the port of Ochamchire, in the breakaway Russian-backed Abkhazia region of Georgia, throughout 2025. Then-Abkhazian leader Aslan Bzhania told Russian state outlet Izvestia in 2023 that Moscow would establish a new naval base in the Black Sea territory, designed to increase the "defense capability" of Russia and Abkhazia. Abkhazia is internationally recognized as a part of Georgia, but it is controlled by de facto separatist authorities—as is the region of South Ossetia to the east. Moscow has deemed Abkhazia an independent state, while Tbilisi considers it occupied by Russia. Historically, Ochamchire has been primarily a coal terminal and an outpost for Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) Coast Guard. But there is evidence of a new large cargo storage shed, a fenced field popping up and the laying of concrete foundations at Ochamchire, as well as a railway line appearing in the first half of 2025, according to satellite imagery captured by space-based intelligence company BlackSky. While not always indicative of military preparations, this type of activity has previously preceded the carving out of deep-water ports that can be used for large naval ships. Visible development had stalled by early 2026, although five buildings at Ochamchire disappeared at some points after July 2025, and one new building was constructed. It's not clear what purpose this edifice serves, said a former U.S. Navy analyst familiar with the BlackSky imagery. Newsweek withheld their name because of security concerns arising from their previous intelligence work. Ukraine has shown it can extend its war with Russia deep into the Black Sea, and Ochamchire would give Moscow an "additional, more distant location to shelter and potentially operate naval assets, making it a potentially useful 'least worst' temporary solution," said Natia Seskuria, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) defense think tank in London. But the Kremlin would need to pour investment into the port to make it suitable for large Russian ships, and it wouldn't be far enough away from Ukraine to be out of Kyiv's drone range, Seskuria told Newsweek. Against the backdrop of growing pressure on the Russian economy and Ukraine's long reach, "Russia does not appear to have so far committed to the kind of large-scale investment that would indicate a serious effort to transform Ochamchire into a fully operational naval base," said Seskuria. Mysterious Ships In January 2026, BlackSky satellite imagery showed approximately 50 ships moored at Ochamchire. An image from January 14, 2026, showed the dozens of ships at the port. The vessels are visible in other commercially available satellite imagery on February 10, but by February 21, most of the vessels had disappeared. Most of the ships seen in Ochamchire were not broadcasting AIS data, which advertises a ship's location. While odd for most Western non-military ships, this is not as unusual for Russian or Chinese vessels—and experts say location signals are jammed around Ochamchire, which would further scramble tracking efforts. Lots of maintenance, support or other general-purpose vessels appearing, as they do in Ochamchire in early 2026, is "a likely operational indicator that major onshore or offshore infrastructure development is underway," said a senior intelligence analyst for data-fusion firm EMDYN, who reviewed the material for Newsweek. Their name is being withheld because of physical and cybersecurity concerns related to their previous work with British military intelligence. Imagery snapped in March 2026 then showed floating orange boom defenses around the port for the first time, which Russia has widely employed at the mouths of its Black Sea naval bases to fend off Ukrainian naval drone assaults. As of August 27, the boom was still there. "Location intelligence data also showed movement between the southern section of the port and the Moscow Technical College of Space Instrument Engineering from late February through the end of April," the senior intelligence analyst said. The mobile data signal picked up by the analyst then traveled to the Zvezda Shipyard, Russia's largest modern shipbuilding site. This indicates Russia is still keen to link advanced technical and industrial knowledge to Ochamchire, they said. But "despite continued interest in finding alternative eastern ports to protect the Black Sea Fleet from Ukrainian during attacks, Russia's build out of the Ochamchire port has seemingly stalled, as evidenced by slowed infrastructure updates and sparse marine traffic from late 2025 into early 2026," the senior intelligence analyst said. Recent Western intelligence assessments indicate no new major activity at Ochamchire, Newsweek understands. The working theory among intelligence experts points to Russia's preoccupation with the land war in Ukraine, its stretched economy and painful Ukrainian long-range drone attacks on its cities and oil refineries. "However, sustained strategic interest in the location remains evident, marked by the deployment of a floating boom structure in April that continues to protect the harbor today," the analyst added. Ukraine's Dogged Campaign in the Black Sea A base at Ochamchire would put Russia's Black Sea Fleet slightly further from Ukraine's grasp after years of dogged drone and missile attacks that Kyiv says have slashed the fleet by a third. Ukraine has heavily targeted Sevastopol, the main Black Sea Fleet base in annexed Crimea, and Novorossiysk, in mainland Russia. Both are major naval centers northwest of Ochamchire. Ukraine's flying drones and unmanned boats skipping over the waves on the Black Sea have made the northwestern corner of the area dangerous for Russia's naval fleet, despite Kyiv's lack of any notable navy. By early 2026, Ukraine said only two thirds of the entire Black Sea fleet was still fully operational. Among the losses were Russia's flagship, the Moskva, and one of Russia's submarines that was struck by missiles as it sat in dry docks in Sevastopol. Ukraine has been clear: Crimea is no longer safe for Russian vessels. Then-Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in June Kyiv would make Crimea an "island," amputating its fuel and supply sources. After repeated strikes on Sevastopol in the first months of the war, Russia started moving its ships to Novorossiysk. While an established naval base—at a more comfortable distance from mainland Ukraine—Novorossiysk was historically a smaller, less capable naval hub. Ukrainian officials said in 2024 some of the personnel from Sevastopol had been moved to Novorossiysk. Western intelligence quickly assessed Russia was sketching decoy silhouettes of submarines at the port, and analysts picked out protective booms popping up at the entrance to Novorossiysk. Meanwhile, satellite imagery from December 2023 indicated construction work and dredging at Ochamchire, the BBC reported at the time. The port could now handle larger cargo ships, the broadcaster said, citing officials in control of Abkhazia. New images from mid-2024, published by the Bellingcat investigative outlet, then showed work at Ochamchire had sped up since the start of that year, with freshly-dug foundations, a new perimeter road linking the military base to the town, and patches of cleared land visible from space. However, since the announcement of a naval base in Abkhazia, Ukraine has vastly improved its drone fleet, carrying out attacks far beyond the Black Sea and raising questions over how useful the additional distance from mainland Ukraine would be in shielding Russian vessels. Even when the base was announced, Ukraine had the ability to strike Abkhazia. In July, Ukraine said it hit an oil refinery in Siberia, around 1,700 miles away. The Caspian Sea and Russian oil sites looking out onto the Gulf of Finland have also been in Ukraine's sights. The Ideological Tug of War Salome Zourabichvili, who was serving as Georgia's president at the time of Bzhania's 2023 statement, said a permanent Russian military base in Ochamchire was a "direct threat to Georgia, our EU aspirations and the Black Sea security." Georgia is neither a European Union member state nor part of NATO, but walks a tightrope between the pull westward to Europe and ties to Russia. Zourabichvili and other pro-European officials have accused Russia of waging a hybrid war against Georgia, including spreading misinformation and election meddling. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, ending up in control of roughly a fifth of Georgian territory. This was met with only muted international reaction, which is widely seen as a precursor to Moscow's seizure of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, and the full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022. Currently, Russia now has a grip on a fifth of Ukrainian soil. Georgia has broadly hoped to join the EU, although Tbilisi's accession plans have now effectively stalled. The Georgian Dream party currently in power has tightened up its repressive measures and been accused of democratic backsliding while keeping the country in limbo between European integration and a pragmatic approach to Moscow. Abkhazia was a popular holiday destination before the Soviet Union disintegrated more than 30 years ago. But the region's economy still hinges on visitors from Russia, even though Abkhazia's residents are deeply wary of a Russian move to formally annex the territory. After Bzhania resigned following protests over a now-scrapped pro-Russia bill, the Moscow-backed candidate tor replace him, Badra Gunba, came out victorious. Just days after he was elected, he visited Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Relations between Russia and Abkhazia "are developing rapidly," Gunba told Putin during a meeting at the Kremlin in May 2026. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Tony Phillips.