Старые диктаторы с ничем не рискующим: почему возраст усиливает угрозу глобальной безопасности

George Bernard Shaw said; ‘old men are dangerous because they have nothing to lose.’ I used to tease a couple of our elderly fun-loving bar customers with this line many years ago. You see, in the innocence of my youth, I took Georgie’s words to be referring, sort of tongue in cheek, to ‘dirty old men’. Watching CNN news last night, it hit me like a bolt that the words of GBS; ‘old men are dangerous because they have nothing to lose’ isn’t funny at all. On the contrary, the thought sent a chill down my spine. Our entire planet is in grave danger of extinction from ‘old men who have nothing to lose.’ We are talking here about powerful old dangerous men with their finger close to the button First of all of course we have to balance this argument. Not all men with nothing to lose are dangerous – so let’s deal with that end of it first. Pope Leo at 70 is not a dangerous man. Nelson Mandela was not a dangerous old man. Jimmy Carter spent his 80s and into his 90s  going around building houses for poor people and devoting all of his time to serving humanity. Pakistan’s Abdul Satter Edhi worked into his 80s building the world’s largest volunteer ambulance network. He only owned one change of clothes and devoted his entire life looking after neglected children and sheltering the homeless. We see good old men working tirelessly in our local communities. Charitable organisations, the GAA and many other groups could never function without the input of good old men. Yes, we all know those good old men, but most of us also know the old man out there held together with spite and bitterness and this man has indeed nothing to lose. The difference between this old man and the ones that GBS is referring to is that the ones closest to us don’t have the power to do anything other than minor damage and make fools of themselves. Dangerous old men with nothing to lose become more dangerous the longer they remain with the power to destroy. Their fingers get itchier, their brain more twisted and the heart colder. Would any of you like to throw up a couple of examples? Yes, they were top of my list too; Putin and Trump; and if we have space left we can mention Netanyahu as well. Benjamin is 76. He has nothing to lose as long as he is at war and has Trump’s backing; but his greatest personal enemy is the risk of peace. Iranian despot, Ali Khamenei, aged 86 was ‘taken out’ by trump earlier this year and replaced by worse. Putin is 74 years old and Trump is 80. Both men were always bullies but now possess what they both consider to be limitless power. The petrol being added to the fire in their belly and what they fear most is a dread of irrelevance. When you haven’t been challenged for decades; surrounded by ‘yes men’ and needing the next surge, this unchecked judgement leads to wars because dictators always believed their legacy justifies the risk and the cost. Old men aren’t dangerous because of their age; they are dangerous when they exercise so much power and control and believe they have immunity from any consequences. Donald Trump is the foremost example of an old man being dangerous because he has nothing to lose. He has already destroyed the political norm which may never recover. He treats lies as fair game and leaves no space for ordinary decency. When elections or court rulings go against him he throws a tantrum and declares the verdict fake or ‘politically motivated.’ His trademark purges against those who disagree with him and his crony-filled agencies become extensions of his personal grievances. He intimidates and threatens journalists with retribution and bizarrely his reckless unpredictability makes for a certain type of scary entertainment. Loyalty to Trump has to be absolute from those in his circle. We have read all this before about a certain gentleman in the 1930s; as Donald Trump cosies up to his like-minded enemies, whilst turning against his friends. Vladimir Putin is probably the most dangerous old man with nothing to lose. Whilst somebody in the Pentagon might get to pull back Trump’s finger from the button, this will not happen in Russia. There is not even a pretence of democracy around the Kremlin. Putin retains power through repression, assassination and information control. He has recently upped the ante by threatening tactical use of a nuclear bomb. The Russian regime specialises in cyber attacks and election interference. Putin’s disregard for national borders – as demonstrated by Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine is a major wake-up call for all of Europe. He keeps goading NATO countries as we write. The other few powerful autocrats – all dangerous old men with nothing to lose, are watching closely and If Putin were to succeed on this one, millions of ‘harmless ol’ scruts’ like you and me won’t be sleeping easily in our beds. Don’t Forget We herd sheep, we drive cattle, we lead men.