Брокер Nomura сохраняет позитив к индийским нефтяным компаниям на фоне ожидаемого глобального переизбытка нефти

Nomura remains bullish on OMCs despite high crude prices; prefers IOC, BPCL Nomura maintains its bearish medium-to-long-term outlook on crude oil, citing the potential for the largest-ever global oil surplus in 2027E based on IEA forecasts. Listen to This Article Global brokerage Nomura remains positive on oil marketing companies (OMCs) despite a sharp decline seen in their stocks so far in 2026, as it expects oversupply concerns to weigh on crude oil prices from the medium-to-long-term perspective.    Crude oil prices are hovering around $86 per barrel, down 2 per cent, on Wednesday amid fresh hopes of the opening of the crucial Strait of Hormuz. This follows a 3 per cent plunge seen a day ago after the US announced a sweeping sanctions package to isolate Iran from the global financial system.   Amid ease in crude oil prices, OMC stocks, namely Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), gained 1.7 per cent, 2.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.    However, the PSU oil companies' stocks remain 15-25 per cent lower on a year-to-date (YTD) basis as geopolitical tensions in West Asia and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep crude prices elevated.  The US earlier this week launched Operation Economic Outcast, but Nomura believes the impact would be much lower than anticipated. "We think that the most likely impact may come in the form of Iranian crude going off the market." Currently, Iran exports ~0.5- 0.6 mbpd of crude oil, almost entirely to China.   The brokerage notes that crude continues to move through the Strait of Hormuz despite higher transportation costs. TotalEnergies’ management indicated that transportation costs through the Strait have risen to around $10/bbl, but these remain offset by steep discounts of $30-40/bbl offered by Iraq and Qatar. Also Read At the same time, India’s dependence on Russian crude is facing increasing uncertainty. Russian crude accounted for around 51 per cent of India’s crude imports in July, with volumes averaging 2.79mbpd. "We believe India’s oil imports from Russia may fall sharply in August following Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russia’s Primorsk oil port (which handles ~1mbpd crude oil), and increased competition from China-based importers which resulted in the discount evaporating for Russian Urals," the brokerage said.   China’s oil imports had corrected from a 5-year average of ~11mbpd to ~7.8mbpd by June, close to decade lows. These Chinese oil imports have been one of the largest offsets to the oil shock brought by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz beginning March 2026.  Nomura, therefore, maintains its bearish medium-to-long-term outlook on crude oil, citing the potential for the largest-ever global oil surplus in 2027E based on IEA forecasts. It expects Brent prices to normalise toward pre-crisis levels once geopolitical tensions ease. Lower crude prices would be particularly positive for OMCs, as their integrated marketing margins tend to improve when crude prices decline.   OMCs are currently generating healthy integrated margins of around $8-13/bbl, including LPG under-recoveries. Nomura sees meaningful upside to these margins if crude prices correct, although part of the benefit could be offset if the government reverses the ₹10/litre excise duty cuts announced in March 2026. Against this backdrop, Nomura maintains its positive stance on OMCs and prefers IOC and BPCL. Nomura on RIL Nomura also expects the refining margins to remain higher even if crude oil prices stabilise because refinery runs take longer to scale up, and some refineries may require repair from damages incurred.    Against this backdrop, it sees Reliance Industries as a key beneficiary of structurally higher refining margins in the near to medium term as its SEZ refinery with ~52 per cent of its refining capacity can realise market GRMs without any SEAD (special additional excise duty) deduction.  Disclaimer: Views and outlook shared belong to the respective brokerages/analysts and are not endorsed by Business Standard. Readers' discretion is advised. More From This Section Don't miss the most important news and views of the day. Get them on our Telegram channel First Published: Aug 26 2026 | 10:52 AM IST