Мозамбик меняет фокус: от газовых месторождений к роли логистического хаба для Южной Африки

Mozambique has spent a decade being defined by one story. It may be time to pay attention to another. The first is well known. The discovery of vast offshore gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin attracted TotalEnergies, Eni and significant long-term capital, positioning Mozambique as one of Africa’s most consequential energy stories. That trajectory was interrupted by the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, which led TotalEnergies to declare force majeure in April 2021 and suspend construction. That story is moving again. TotalEnergies lifted force majeure in November 2025 and resumed construction in January 2026, with first LNG production now targeted for 2029. Eni’s Coral South FLNG has been producing since 2022. Mozambique projected record FDI of USD 5.9 billion for 2026, underpinned by these developments. The energy story is recovering, not over. But it is no longer the only investment story that matters. Investors looking again at Mozambique are finding something else worth examining: an opportunity the LNG story has spent a decade overshadowing. It sits not in the Rovuma Basin but in the country’s ports, its transport corridors and its position at the junction of Southern and East Africa. Mozambique’s geography, transport corridors and its raw material endowment position it as a potential manufacturing and logistics platform for Southern Africa. That geography is structurally difficult for any competitor to replicate. Geography changes the equation Mozambique occupies a unique place on the African continent. With more than 2,700 kilometres of Indian Ocean coastline and borders with six neighbouring countries, it serves as a natural gateway between global markets and the landlocked economies of Southern Africa. Through the Maputo, Beira and Nacala corridors, goods move between ports on Mozambique’s coast and landlocked markets such as Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and beyond. The three corridors are at different stages of development and serve distinct hinterlands but together they give Mozambique a regional reach that few neighbouring countries can replicate. The Port of Maputo is the country’s largest and busiest port, handling 30.9 million tonnes in 2024, while upgrades to Maputo and Beira Ports, along with rail improvements on routes such as Machipanda and Maputo-Ressano Garcia, are improving regional connectivity. Road freight remains a significant part of this system, carrying overland cargo between ports, industrial areas and inland markets. Mozambique’s ports and transport corridors connect Southern Africa’s landlocked interior to the Indian Ocean. This logistics advantage is increasingly tangible. The Port of Maputo, operated by DP World, handled 30.9 million tonnes of cargo in 2024, with a USD 165 million investment underway to double container capacity. Persistent congestion at South Africa’s Durban and Richards Bay ports is already prompting Botswana, Zambia and Malawi to reroute trade through Mozambique. For investors, the ability to move components, kits and finished products reliably between ports, factories and inland markets can be as important as the factory floor itself. Mozambique’s corridor position makes it central to that movement. It is the logistics spine of landlocked Southern Africa. The ports sit on its coast. That geography is the strategic asset. Mozambique’s corridor advantage should also be understood in the context of the broader regional picture. The Lobito Corridor in Angola is emerging as a significant Atlantic-facing route for DRC and Zambia. Rather than a competitive threat, this reflects the same underlying trend: landlocked Southern and Central Africa is actively building out its access to global markets. Mozambique’s Indian Ocean position serves different markets and different trade flows. The future of regional logistics will comprise several complementary gateways. And Mozambique’s three corridors give it a role in that system that is difficult for any other country on the Indian Ocean coast to replicate. The industrial opportunity The case for Mozambique as a regional industrial platform rests on a combination of geography, transport corridors, special economic zone infrastructure, raw materials and trade architecture. The opportunity spans mineral processing, fertilisers, agri-processing, construction materials, logistics and warehousing, light manufacturing, component supply and assembly activity serving both the domestic market and the wider corridor region. The model that evidence supports is complementarity rather than competition with the established industrial economies of the region. South Africa is the dominant manufacturing hub in Southern Africa. Neighbouring countries that have succeeded have done so not by replicating South Africa’s industrial base but by identifying specific activities, component supply, raw material processing, logistics services, where their cost structure, resource endowments and geographic position give them a genuine advantage. Mozambique’s graphite, aluminium and rubber, combined with its corridor position and lower labour costs, provide exactly that kind of foundation. South African companies are already present across multiple sectors in Mozambique, providing the first layer of a regional commercial ecosystem. The more compelling path is not to build an industry from scratch but to deepen and formalise what is already forming, across processing, manufacturing, logistics and supply chain activity oriented toward the region as a whole. Road infrastructure remains a challenge. Mozambique’s road network is constrained. Much of it is unpaved away from the main corridor routes and inland connectivity is uneven. For manufacturers, this means location selection is critical. Operations anchored to established industrial zones with direct port access, such as Beluluane near Maputo, are significantly better placed than those relying on secondary road networks. For manufacturers dependent on moving inputs and finished goods, this is a real operational risk: it adds time, cost and unpredictability to supply chains and cannot be wished away. But it can be planned around. Mozambique’s established industrial zones sit at precisely the points where the infrastructure works best. Beluluane’s experience illustrates that an industrial zone succeeds not merely because it has a designated legal status but because it combines port access, energy supply, incentives and an existing industrial ecosystem. Mozambique generates a large share of its electricity from hydropower, anchored by the Cahora Bassa facility, and business electricity tariffs run well below both the African and global average. Its major river systems, including the Zambezi and the Limpopo, provide water availability that many competing locations cannot match. Transmission capacity and the reliability of supply are not uniform across the country, however, and grid expansion remains important. For energy-intensive industries such as mineral processing, aluminium and fertilisers, the combination of comparatively low-cost energy, water access and corridor connectivity can make an investment viable. The constraint and the advantage point to the same conclusion: locate in the right place and the industrial case is strong; locate in the wrong place and it is not. Supporting frameworks and advantages Mozambique’s position is reinforced by several additional advantages. The country offers a young and growing labour force, sustaining long-term growth potential. It further possesses significant reserves of strategic minerals, including graphite, an input that is becoming increasingly important in battery and electric vehicle value chains. Mozambique is home to the Mozal Aluminium Smelter, housed in Beluluane Industrial Park, one of Mozambique’s largest special economic zones. Trade access further strengthens the regional case. Mozambique’s commercial relationship with South Africa is already cemented. While the countries do not share any standalone preferential trade agreements, they share various memorandums of understanding. More importantly, Mozambique’s trade with South Africa is anchored in wider regional frameworks including AfCFTA and SADC. Under SADC, qualifying goods can benefit from preferential access to a regional market of more than 250 million people, provided they meet the relevant rules of origin. AfCFTA further strengthens the long-term argument for Mozambique as part of a continental manufacturing value chain. However, trade access is not automatic and depends on how production is structured at the outset to access rules of origin. Investors should also be aware that the bilateral investment treaty between South Africa and Mozambique, signed in 1997, has not yet entered into force. By contrast, the China–Mozambique BIT, signed in 2001, is in force. Geography and market access are not sufficient on their own. Investors will also assess the predictability of licensing and approvals, access to foreign exchange, land-use rights, the enforceability of contracts and the consistency of regulatory decision-making. Continued improvement in investment administration and regulatory certainty will therefore be important in converting Mozambique’s structural advantages into sustained industrial investment. While a Mozambican operation designed for local sales may struggle, a Mozambican operation structured to meet rules of origin, serve corridor markets and plug into South Africa’s existing manufacturing scale offers a more compelling proposition. Two further agreements extend that access beyond the African continent. The EU–SADC Economic Partnership Agreement, applied by Mozambique since 2018, gives Mozambican goods duty-free, quota-free access to the EU market. The UK–SACUM EPA replicates that access for the UK following Brexit. Taken together with SADC and AfCFTA, Mozambique has preferential or duty-free access to the EU, the UK and an African market of 1.4 billion people. For export-oriented manufacturers producing processed minerals, components or intermediate goods, that combination of market access agreements is genuinely distinctive. Aluminium produced at Mozal is already being exported to the EU under the SADC EPA. Most countries of Mozambique’s size and income level do not have simultaneous preferential access to the EU, the UK and a continental African market of 1.4 billion people. Mozambique does. Policy signals Recent government initiatives suggest that this conversation is already underway. Alongside continuing investment in the energy sector, there is growing policy emphasis on industrialisation, manufacturing and the development of special economic zones as vehicles for economic diversification. The recent launch of a public-private partnership process to attract investment into vehicle assembly is one example of a broader effort to identify Mozambique’s role in regional value chains. Whether vehicle assembly itself becomes a dominant opportunity remains to be seen. Its significance lies in the policy signal: industrialisation will require new sectors alongside energy and mining. The scale reality The honest constraint is worth stating clearly. Mozambique’s domestic market is relatively small across most manufacturing sectors and the economics of large-scale production rarely work when aimed at domestic consumers alone. Any successful industrial strategy must therefore be regional in scope. This means using Mozambique’s corridors to access SADC markets, leveraging its trade agreements to reach beyond them and positioning manufacturing operations to serve the wider Southern African economy rather than only the 33 million people within Mozambique’s borders. The domestic market is the base; the region is the opportunity. The broader lesson Mozambique’s durable economic opportunity will not be defined by the Rovuma Basin alone and recent moves to attract investment into manufacturing suggest that the country is increasingly recognising this. As Southern African economies become more integrated and supply chains increasingly organised around regional production networks, countries that sit astride critical logistics corridors are likely to play an outsized role in future industrial development. Mozambique’s ports, transport links and geographic position place it at the centre of that conversation. The question is therefore no longer whether Mozambique can participate in regional industrialisation. Instead, it is what role it should play within it. For investors and manufacturers assessing Southern Africa as an industrial destination, Mozambique deserves more careful attention. The opportunity is regional. Mozambique’s future may lie less in competing as a standalone manufacturing hub than in becoming a critical node in the Southern African manufacturing ecosystem. For businesses seeking to establish regional supply chains rather than simply enter a domestic market, Mozambique offers a combination of geography, corridor infrastructure, energy resources, raw materials and market access that is increasingly difficult to ignore. That structural advantage may prove as important to the country’s long-term investment story as anything lying offshore.