Проект ESPON оценил региональное влияние соглашения ЕС с Меркосур: рост реальных зарплат в южной Европе

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network. EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms. Find the full transcript below: Mercosur, CETA, TTIP — the EU’s trade policy can sometimes feel very far away from the people who are actually affected by its decisions. In EU jargon, trade policy is an exclusive EU competence. This means that the European Union negotiates and concludes trade agreements with partner countries. Then, the rules apply across the whole of the EU. But as we know, European regions are highly diverse, and they are equally divided over the benefits of free trade agreements. How can we take into account the different regional interests in this area? The EU-Mercosur free trade deal has sparked major demonstrations by farmers across France, Belgium, Poland and, to a lesser extent, other countries. But after more than twenty years of negotiations, and several more years of debate within the EU, a majority of European countries have decided to go ahead and apply the deal, at least provisionally. One question that arises for future trade agreements is this: how can we be more inclusive without completely blocking political choices? This could start by properly mapping the benefits of trade agreements. Here, territorial research can make a difference. For instance, the STARTER project, published by ESPON in 2025, looks at the regional impact of FTAs. Researchers modelled the trade effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement across 296 European regions. This is different from what had been done before. The European Commission conducted a regional study back in 2011, but it focused on agriculture. The broader impact assessment it carried out a few years ago looked only at national or EU-wide effects. So, what are the results? The FTA should increase welfare in European regions on average, but by a small amount. By welfare, the researchers from the ESPON project mean changes in real wages. The regions expected to benefit the most include parts of Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria, southern Italy, Spain and Portugal. So, much of southern Europe. The gains expected in real wages are less than one percent, but they are spread across almost every EU region. Only a few places would experience a negative impact, such as Basilicata in southern Italy or parts of Greece. Now, many actors are worried about the potential harm Mercosur products could have on EU agrifood production. And this is a particularly local issue, given the specificities of EU regions. The trade deal does include safeguard clauses and other measures to mitigate the risks. But whether these measures are sufficient is precisely the kind of question that needs to be assessed at regional level. If a region is worried about losing part of its agricultural production, solid evidence can show whether that concern is justified — and how serious the potential impact could be. And the opposite works too. If the benefits of an agreement are real, mapping them could help explain why a trade agreement might be in a region’s interest. Because EU regions, or even EU countries, can’t just opt out of a free trade agreement. Once adopted, they have to be part of it. This is due to the free circulation of goods within the EU. Basically, once a product enters the EU, it can generally circulate freely within the single market. You could not realistically allow Mercosur products into one region duty-free and expect the neighbouring country to pay duties on the same imports. After several months of application, authorities should soon be able to provide this kind of regional data. This would inform the debate over the final approval by the European Parliament. And that could make EU trade policy not only more evidence-based — but also more politically credible.