Новое исследование доказало, что уверенность не гарантирует эффективность менеджера

Most companies pick managers the same way. They either promote whoever excelled at the individual work, self-selected for the promotion, seemed confident they could do the job or a combination of the above. It's how most organizations have always done things, but new research on managerial leadership traits shows how wrong that approach often is—as well as how much rides on getting it right. Why Selecting For The Right Leadership Traits Matters More Than Most Companies Realize A 2026 Quarterly Journal of Economics study by an international team of economists tracked managers across randomly assigned teams to identify which leadership traits actually predict good management. Based on real-world data, they found that putting in place a stronger manager improves team performance by 40% more than putting in place a stronger team (based on the team's average productivity levels). Manager quality is one of the biggest levers companies can pull to improve organizational performance and productivity. Confidence Is Not A Reliable Signal Of Management Skill Notably, the researchers also found that managers who volunteered for the role underperformed those who were randomly assigned. Researchers attributed the finding to the fact that companies tend to promote managers who are overconfident (especially about their own social skills). Meanwhile, people who performed just as well, or better, in the managerial role were less likely to put themselves forward for the promotion in the first place. In other words, those most willing to vie for the role were often not best suited to it, and the people best suited to leadership were often the least likely to raise their hand for it. What Leadership Traits Actually Predict A Good Manager Given that paradox, the researchers looked at what did predict strong management performance and found two traits were predictive. The first is economic decision-making skills (defined as the ability to make sound decisions about resource allocation, per a 2024 economic study on the impact of these skills in the U.S. and Denmark). The second is fluid intelligence (defined as the ability to think logically and solve problems in novel situations, independent of acquired knowledge, according to a 2011 study on fluid intelligence and psychosocial outcomes). Meanwhile, demographics had no predictive power, and self-reported social skills and personality traits were also counterproductive. The good news for organizations is that they can measure both economic decision-making and fluid intelligence. This is also good news for leaders and aspiring leaders who are introverts, or otherwise disinclined to perform overconfidence or be the center of attention. What Leadership Traits Organizations Should Actually Select For So how should organizations measure and select for these leadership traits? Four changes could go a long way here. First, use structured, work-sample exercises (tests that have candidates actually do a piece of the job rather than describe how they'd do it) since they reveal a candidate's real decision-making instead of their account of it. This could mean running candidates through a live resource-allocation exercise, having them manage a project sprint under observation or asking them to walk through a specific team-conflict scenario in real time. Second, apply the same predetermined criteria to every candidate, which limits the extent to which personal bias can shape outcomes. Third, score competence and likability separately, then weigh competence more heavily, since the study found that organizations promote more likable candidates, who then perform worse. Fourth, build a promotion process that actively invites people who would not otherwise raise their hand for promotions, since some of the strongest candidates simply will not nominate themselves. Leadership Traits Should Beat Gut Instinct Every Time The traits that predict a good manager—sound decision-making and fluid intelligence—are easier to miss than confidence and bluster, and harder to detect in a traditional interview process. That is precisely why so many organizations continue to rely on the wrong criteria when promoting managers. But manager quality moves output more than almost any other single variable within an organization's control. So start looking for these leadership traits this week, not just when you make your next manager hire. This article was originally published on Forbes.com