МВФ требует от Зимбабве отложить $275 млн в резерв на случай засухи

HARARE — The International Monetary Fund has urged Zimbabwe to set aside at least US$275 million from stronger-than-expected government revenues as a fiscal safeguard against a potential El Niño-induced drought and worsening food-security pressures in 2027. The recommendation comes as the IMF welcomed a stronger fiscal performance by Zimbabwe during the first quarter of 2026 but cautioned authorities against using the additional revenue to finance higher expenditure. Under its latest review of Zimbabwe’s Staff Monitored Programme, the Fund said the Government should maintain spending within the parameters of the approved 2026 Budget and save the revenue windfall to create room for an emergency response should climatic conditions deteriorate. Revenue performance provides room for savings Zimbabwe recorded a US$371 million primary cash surplus during the first quarter, significantly outperforming the IMF programme target by approximately US$320 million. Government revenue was also about US$560 million above target, supported by stronger economic activity, improved VAT and customs collections, higher personal income tax receipts and gains in tax administration. The IMF expects Zimbabwe’s total revenue for 2026 to reach approximately US$10.3 billion, equivalent to about 16% of GDP, while projecting a cash primary surplus of roughly 1.7% of GDP. Rather than translating the stronger revenue performance into additional spending, the Fund is urging authorities to preserve part of the windfall. The proposed US$275 million buffer would give Treasury the capacity to respond to an agricultural and food-security shock without accumulating new domestic arrears or diverting funding from essential social programmes. El Niño raises food-security concerns The IMF’s warning comes amid heightened concerns over the possibility of a significant El Niño weather event towards the end of 2026 and into early 2027. A severe drought could weaken agricultural output, reduce household incomes and place additional pressure on food prices and imports. The Fund warned that a major climate shock could simultaneously reduce government revenues and increase public expenditure, particularly if authorities are forced to purchase grain and provide assistance to vulnerable households. For Zimbabwe, where agriculture remains highly exposed to rainfall variability, such a shock could place considerable pressure on both the fiscal position and foreign-currency resources. Government pushes economic resilience Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has similarly identified climate and commodity shocks as key risks to Zimbabwe’s economic outlook, arguing that resilience must be built into the country’s broader economic strategy. In the 2026 Budget Strategy Paper, Ncube said Zimbabwe needed to accelerate economic diversification, increase value addition and beneficiation and expand targeted irrigation development. The strategy reflects a growing recognition within Government that fiscal reserves alone cannot provide a long-term solution to recurring agricultural shocks. Greater irrigation capacity, agricultural productivity and economic diversification would reduce the economy’s dependence on rainfall while also strengthening domestic food production and export capacity. IMF flags social spending shortfall While praising Zimbabwe’s overall fiscal performance, the IMF raised concerns about the execution of protected social and priority spending. Government fell US$84 million short of its first-quarter target for protected social and priority expenditure, with under-spending affecting programmes including the Basic Education Assistance Module (BEAM), Pfumvudza and the Social Protection Management Information System. The IMF is therefore calling for improved execution of social-protection programmes at a time when the potential drought could increase pressure on vulnerable households. The challenge for Treasury will be to preserve fiscal discipline while ensuring that budgeted social programmes are actually implemented. Wider policy reforms remain on the agenda Beyond the proposed drought buffer, the IMF is pressing Zimbabwe to maintain a broader package of fiscal, monetary and structural reforms. These include limiting gold incentives to US$300 million in 2026, accelerating the clearance of domestic arrears and maintaining tight monetary policy. The Fund is also urging authorities to move towards a more liberalised foreign-exchange market while continuing efforts to restructure external debt and clear longstanding arrears. The recommendations highlight a central policy dilemma facing Zimbabwe: the Government has improved its fiscal position, but the stronger revenue performance needs to be converted into greater resilience rather than higher recurrent expenditure. For Treasury, the proposed US$275 million reserve could therefore become an important test of fiscal discipline. If accumulated, it would provide Zimbabwe with a financial cushion before a potential drought hits agricultural output, food supplies and public finances. The IMF’s message is consequently straightforward: use today’s revenue strength to prepare for tomorrow’s shock rather than spend the windfall before the risks materialise.