Эксперт: Казахстан превращается в ключевого архитектора будущего Евразии

ASTANA – Central Asia and the Western Balkans may be geographically distant, but they are not economically or strategically disconnected. Their positions between major European and Eurasian markets create opportunities that have yet to be fully developed, according to Prof. Dr. Zijad Bećirović, director of the International Institute for Middle Eastern and Balkan Studies (IFIMES) in Ljubljana. According to him, Astana is developing a more sophisticated foreign policy model, which he described as “strategic redundancy,” seeking to reduce dependence by creating multiple political, economic, diplomatic, energy and transport options. “This is a highly sophisticated approach to international relations,” Bećirović said in an interview with The Astana Times, noting that resilience increasingly depends on having alternatives while maintaining constructive relations across different geopolitical divides. He said that this approach is becoming increasingly relevant as the international environment grows more fragmented and unpredictable. Rather than simply balancing competing powers, Kazakhstan is building a portfolio of relationships and routes that can reinforce one another and provide alternatives when geopolitical conditions change. From geopolitical dialogue to economic diplomacy Bećirović’s assessment also reflects the changing role that IFIMES itself seeks to play. He is visiting Kazakhstan together with Janez Škrabec, founder and director of Slovenia-based RIKO, in what he described as part of a broader effort to connect political dialogue with practical economic cooperation. IFIMES has held Special Consultative Status with the United Nations Economic and Social Council since 2018 and publishes the international scientific journal European Perspectives. Bećirović said this institutional position allows the institute to connect political, academic and economic perspectives. “We increasingly believe that economic diplomacy should complement political and security dialogue. In the current geopolitical environment, strategic relationships become sustainable when political understanding is translated into concrete economic interests, investment, technology transfer and long-term partnerships,” he said. RIKO, which Bećirović described as one of Slovenia’s most internationally recognized engineering companies, combines engineering expertise, advanced technologies, project management and implementation. He sees this expertise as relevant to Kazakhstan’s development priorities in sectors including energy, infrastructure, industry, environmental technologies and water management. The objective, he stressed, is not simply to identify commercial opportunities, but to explore projects in which European expertise, technology and engineering capabilities can contribute to Kazakhstan’s long-term development objectives. “Our objective is to turn geopolitical understanding into economic connectivity, investment and concrete projects,” Bećirović said. Kazakhstan as a Eurasian anchor Bećirović sees Kazakhstan’s role becoming even more significant as the structure of Eurasian trade and connectivity changes. In his view, its importance extends beyond its territory and natural resources. What distinguishes the country is its ability to engage with different geopolitical centers while preserving strategic autonomy and avoiding dependence on any single power. He linked this directly to the evolution of Kazakhstan’s foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, arguing that the country’s strategic value is greatest when it remains open, connected and predictable. “What we are witnessing today is a shift from traditional geopolitical balancing towards what I would call strategic redundancy,” Bećirović said, describing it as the deliberate development of “multiple, mutually reinforcing channels of cooperation” in diplomacy, trade, transport, energy, investment and technology. For Kazakhstan, the logic is particularly relevant as transport corridors are being reconfigured, supply chains diversified and new economic centers emerge across Eurasia. Bećirović pointed specifically to the expansion of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route and other connectivity corridors linking Asia and Europe, saying Kazakhstan is exceptionally well positioned to benefit from these changes. But he also stressed that connectivity should not be viewed as a purely economic issue. “Economic connectivity and security can no longer be treated as separate concepts,” he said. Reliable transport routes, diversified energy supplies, investment opportunities and sustained political dialogue are becoming interconnected elements of strategic stability, he argued. A country that contributes to all of these dimensions strengthens not only its own resilience, but also that of the wider Eurasian space. In this sense, he believes Kazakhstan should no longer be viewed only through the traditional lens of Central Asian geopolitics. “Kazakhstan is increasingly positioning itself as a European, Asian and Eurasian partner simultaneously,” Bećirović said. He described the country as an actor capable not only of connecting different regions, interests and geopolitical perspectives, but also of shaping emerging patterns of cooperation among them. Beyond the East-West “bridge” narrative For years, Kazakhstan’s international role has often been described in terms of its ability to serve as a bridge between East and West. Bećirović believes that description is now becoming too limited. In his assessment, Kazakhstan’s real strategic advantage lies in its ability to convert geography into connectivity and political independence into resilience. “Astana is therefore no longer simply a bridge between East and West. It is increasingly becoming an actor shaping the future of Eurasia,” he said. That interpretation also expands the geography of Kazakhstan’s potential partnerships. Bećirović sees significant room for stronger economic links between Central Asia and Europe, including the Western Balkans, where he believes substantial potential remains underdeveloped. Rather than focusing only on bilateral ties, he said economic diplomacy should increasingly build broader networks linking markets, investors, institutions and regions. “Kazakhstan can serve as an important gateway between Central Asia and Europe, while the Western Balkans can provide an additional platform for connecting European markets with the wider Eurasian space,” he said. A Central Asia–Western Balkans platform The challenge for Europe and Central Asia, according to Bećirović, is no longer primarily to establish political dialogue. That foundation already exists. The next step is to give that dialogue greater economic substance. “Europe and Central Asia have established a solid political dialogue, but I believe the economic dimension now needs to become much more ambitious and tangible,” he said. The key challenge, he added, is translating political understanding into concrete projects, investment, connectivity and long-term institutional partnerships. This is also where he sees IFIMES’s role expanding further: acting as a bridge between political decision-makers, the business community and the expert community, while creating platforms where geopolitical analysis can connect to practical economic opportunities. One of IFIMES’s most concrete ideas is to organize a Central Asia–Western Balkans Summit in Belgrade. Bećirović said the initiative reflects the institute’s belief that the two regions, despite their geographical distance, have complementary economic interests and considerable untapped potential. Serbia and President Aleksandar Vučić, he noted, have developed strong relations with Kazakhstan and other Central Asian states, while Belgrade has increasingly become a meeting point between Central and Southeast Europe and the wider Eurasian space. “The purpose should not be to create another purely political conference,” Bećirović said. Instead, he envisages an economic and strategic platform bringing together governments, companies, investors, financial institutions and experts. The focus, he said, should be on trade, investment, infrastructure, energy, transport, technology and industrial cooperation. He also highlighted the role of Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Slovenia, Altay Abibullayev, describing his engagement and outreach in Slovenia as particularly visible and proactive and as a demonstration of Kazakhstan’s commitment to deepening relations with Slovenia and the European Union. Ultimately, Bećirović said, the objective should be to build “new corridors of cooperation rather than new dividing lines.” Central Asia and the Western Balkans may be geographically distant, he noted, but they are not economically or strategically disconnected. Their positions between major European and Eurasian markets create opportunities that have yet to be fully developed. For Bećirović, Kazakhstan’s experience offers a wider lesson for Europe: openness, connectivity and strategic redundancy do not have to compete with one another. They can reinforce one another and become the basis for a more resilient model of international engagement.