Бюджетное управление Конгресса прогнозирует дефицит США в 1,4 трлн долларов к 2026 году

Introduction: The CBO’s Role in Shaping Fiscal Policy The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stands at the heart of U.S. fiscal policy, providing nonpartisan budget scoring and economic forecasts that deeply influence legislative decisions. Its projections affect debates on spending, taxation, and deficit management, framing policymakers’ understanding of the federal government’s fiscal trajectory. In 2026, the CBO projects the federal deficit to reach $1.4 trillion, a critical figure lawmakers weigh when considering new programs or tax reforms. This article delves into the methods behind the CBO’s forecasts and explains their tangible impact on congressional decision-making. Budget Scoring Methodologies: How Dollars Are Counted At its core, budget scoring is the CBO’s estimate of the budgetary impact of proposed legislation over a 10-year window, as mandated by the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974. The office analyzes revenue changes, mandatory spending, and discretionary spending. Key Elements of Budget Scoring - Baseline Projections: The CBO’s current-law baseline projects revenues and spending assuming no policy changes, giving a control scenario. - Policy Analysis: Proposed bills are scored relative to the baseline, estimating incremental effects on deficits or surpluses. - Dynamic Scoring: For major tax legislation, the CBO incorporates macroeconomic feedback effects, though this remains limited compared to the Treasury Department’s approach. For example, the CBO’s March 2026 estimate for the Build Back Better Act revision showed an increase in deficits by $320 billion over ten years, primarily driven by expanded health care subsidies and infrastructure investments. Economic Forecasting Models: Predicting Growth and Revenue The CBO relies on a suite of economic models to forecast GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and labor force participation, which in turn inform revenue and spending projections. Major Forecasting Components - Macroeconomic Models: The CBO uses a structural macroeconomic model incorporating variables such as productivity growth (estimated at 1.4% annually for 2026-2036) and labor supply. - Revenue Elasticities: These determine how tax revenues respond to changes in GDP and incomes. - Health Care Cost Projections: The CBO factors in per capita health spending growth of about 5.2% annually, influencing Medicare and Medicaid outlays. The CBO’s latest forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026 and an average inflation rate of 2.3%, assumptions that underlie its revenue estimates of $4.9 trillion for fiscal year 2026. Impact on Legislative Decisions: From Budget Resolutions to Final Votes Congressional committees and members closely monitor CBO analyses to assess the fiscal feasibility of legislation. Budget resolutions often reference CBO deficit projections to set spending caps. Case Study: The 2026 Infrastructure Investment Bill - Initial CBO Score: Estimated $450 billion net cost over 10 years. - Revised Scoring After Amendments: Reduced to $380 billion due to updated revenue offsets and spending adjustments. - Legislative Outcome: The revised score helped build bipartisan support, leading to passage with a 68-32 Senate vote. The CBO’s impartial scoring provides lawmakers a credible framework, deterring unrealistic promises and encouraging fiscal responsibility. Transparency and Challenges: Navigating Uncertainty in Forecasting The CBO maintains transparency by publishing detailed reports and methodology explanations, yet economic forecasting inherently involves uncertainty. Sources of Uncertainty - Macro Shocks: Unexpected events such as geopolitical tensions or financial crises can derail assumptions. - Policy Feedback: Laws may alter behavior in unpredictable ways, complicating long-term forecasts. - Data Limitations: Lagged availability of economic data can delay the reflection of real-time conditions. For instance, the CBO’s 2024 projections underestimated the inflation spike in late 2024 by 1.7 percentage points, illustrating the limits of models amid volatile conditions. Comparing CBO Forecasts to Other Institutions To appreciate the CBO’s role, it is useful to compare its economic and budget projections with those from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and private forecasters like Moody’s Analytics. The CBO’s forecasts tend to be more conservative and less optimistic than OMB’s, reflecting its statutory mandate for nonpartisanship. Moody’s Analytics incorporates market-based risks, which can produce wider variance in projections. - $1.4 trillion projected federal deficit for fiscal year 2026 by the CBO - 2.1% projected real GDP growth in 2026 - 10 years standard budget scoring window - 5.2% annual growth in per capita health care costs factored into spending forecasts - $380 billion estimated net cost of 2026 infrastructure bill after amendments Frequently asked questions What is the Congressional Budget Office’s main function? How often does the CBO update its economic forecasts? Why are the CBO’s budget scores important for Congress? Does the CBO’s economic forecasting always match actual outcomes? Key takeaways - The CBO’s budget scoring estimates the fiscal impact of legislation over a 10-year horizon, influencing Congressional policy choices. - Economic forecasts underpin revenue and spending projections, incorporating GDP growth, inflation, and health care cost trends. - The CBO’s impartial data helps legislators balance ambitions with fiscal responsibility, shaping the viability of bills like the 2026 infrastructure investment. - Forecasting uncertainties remain significant due to unpredictable macro shocks and behavioral responses to policy changes. - Comparisons show the CBO’s projections are generally conservative and nonpartisan compared to executive branch or private sector forecasts. Conclusion The Congressional Budget Office’s economic forecasts and budget scoring are fundamental tools steering U.S. fiscal policy. By combining rigorous methodologies with transparent reporting, the CBO equips lawmakers with essential insights into the financial consequences of their decisions. Despite inherent uncertainties, its nonpartisan analyses foster accountability and informed debate, making the CBO indispensable in the labyrinth of congressional budgeting. As the federal deficit and economic landscape evolve in 2026 and beyond, the precision and credibility of the CBO’s work remain critical to sustainable governance.