Новые исследования: экологические нормы снижают строительство, мобильные деньги укрепляют климатическую устойчивость, а CO2 стимулирует рост саванн

Hot Markets The costs of environmental land use regulation Maxwell Tabarrok Journal of Public Economics, October 2026 Abstract: This paper measures the effect of environmental land use regulation on housing supply using variation in the timing and location of species listings under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). In a newly constructed panel of municipal housing permits, I find that species listings reduce annual permit flows by 0.5 permits per thousand residents, about 10% of the average annual flow. The effect is robust across different species, geographies, and place characteristics. The effect is larger for critical habitat listings, zero for proposed but not-yet-enforced listings, and is reversed after de-listings. Satellite land use data show reductions in both greenfield and infill development, suggesting that the ESA constrains construction in already-developed areas where benefits to endangered habitats are limited. Dirty Commies: The Effect of the Cuban Revolution in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carlos Luis Martinez & Vincent Geloso George Mason University Working Paper, July 2026  Abstract: We estimate the effect of the Cuban Revolution on greenhouse gas emissions using the synthetic control method. The Revolution expanded state ownership, central planning, administered prices, soft budget constraints, and output targets, all of which weakened the incentive to economize on energy and natural resources. We compare post-1959 Cuba to a synthetic counterfactual built from sixteen Latin American economies, drawing on emissions data and two GDP series, one of them a Devereux-adjusted measure of Cuban output. Cuba grew markedly more emissions-intensive after the Revolution: greenhouse gas emissions per dollar of GDP rose above the counterfactual by as much as 3.9 to 4.9 kilograms of CO2-equivalent, an effect significant in nearly every post-treatment year. Total emissions and emissions per capita rose as well, though less significantly. The Revolution thus produced dirty de-growth, pairing lower output with more emissions-intensive production. Bankruptcy Claim Dischargeability and Public Externalities: Evidence from a Natural Experiment Michael Ohlrogge American Law and Economics Review, forthcoming  Abstract: In 2009, the Seventh Circuit ruled in U.S. v. Apex Oil that certain types of injunctions requiring firms to clean up previously released toxic chemicals were not dischargeable in bankruptcy. This effectively increased the priority of cleanup obligations, requiring in many situations that they be met more fully before other creditors received payments. I show using difference-in-differences and triple-difference methodologies that companies whose operations are confined to the Seventh Circuit (and thus relatively likely to file for bankruptcy there) responded by reducing the volume of toxic chemicals they release on-site by approximately 15–30%. In place of these releases, firms substituted off-site treatment and disposal by specialized facilities generally considered to be safer for the environment. I also show that many lenders to Seventh Circuit firms added stricter loan covenants governing toxic waste disposal following the decision. These results point to important ways in which bankruptcy law and other legal rules that impact recovery for firms’ creditors can work to shape the positive or negative externalities those firms generate. Technology Lock-In and Costs of Delayed Climate Policy Jonathan Hawkins-Pierot & Katherine Wagner Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, forthcoming  Abstract: This paper studies the implications of current energy prices for future energy efficiency and climate policy. Using U.S. Census microdata and quasi-experimental variation in energy prices, we first show that manufacturing plants that open when electricity prices are low consume more energy throughout their lifetime, regardless of current electricity prices. We then estimate that a persistent bias of technological change toward energy can explain the long-term effects of entry-year electricity prices on energy intensity. Overall, this “technology lock-in” implies that increasing entry-year electricity prices by 10% would decrease a plant’s energy intensity of production by 3% throughout its lifetime. Forecasting Climate Change Using a Multivariate Cointegrated System Jennifer Castle et al. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, August 2026, Pages 783-802  Abstract: A cointegrated vector equilibrium correction model of key climate variables including sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, Arctic sea-ice extent and sea-level change is built, driven by radiative forcing in which a stochastic trend arises due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. A valid and congruent statistical model requires saturation estimation to model breaks in trends, while also conditioning on natural radiative forcings and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The model is stable over 150 years, reflecting the slow adjustment of the deep oceans to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, and predicts an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.6°C. Projections out to 2100 highlight the many uncertainties over the coming decades. Breaking the world’s vulnerability to climate change: The role of mobile money Eric Xaverie Possi Tebeng et al. Economics of Governance, August 2026  Abstract: Mobile money is a major component of financial digitalization and has become a key instrument for financial inclusion in developing economies. This paper examines the impact of mobile money adoption on vulnerability to climate change within a theoretical framework grounded in adaptation and resilience. We argue that mobile money affects climate vulnerability through three main economic mechanisms: risk-sharing, liquidity and financial management, and access to information. Using a panel dataset of 77 countries over the period 1995–2020, we estimate the causal effect of mobile money adoption on climate vulnerability using the entropy balancing method, which enables us to construct a synthetic control group observationally comparable to mobile money adopters. The results indicate that mobile money significantly reduces climate change vulnerability. This finding is robust across a wide range of sensitivity analyses, including additional controls, regional heterogeneity, legal origin, instrumental variable strategies, and alternative specifications. We further show that the effect is smallest in East Asia and the Pacific and more pronounced in countries with settler colonial legal origins. Finally, using an alternative measure of mobile money intensity based on a functional depth index, we confirm the robustness of our baseline conclusions. Overall, the results suggest that mobile money plays a significant role in strengthening adaptive capacity and economic resilience to climate shocks, highlighting the importance of digital financial inclusion as a policy tool for climate adaptation. Cascading continental-scale floods across Europe in 1342–1343 Andrea Kiss et al. Nature, 20 August 2026, Pages 638-645  Abstract: Europe has experienced extreme floods in recent decades. However, even larger floods are possible and must be considered in flood risk management. Their characteristics can be clarified by analysing the largest documented historical floods. In Central Europe, the Magdalena Flood of July 1342 is usually considered the largest of the last millennium; however, knowledge of its characteristics is incomplete. Here we show that 16 major flood events occurred across much of Europe between late 1341 and 1343. Four of these events had return periods of 500–1,000 years (the Magdalena, Bartholomew, Candlemas and Jacob Floods). Although Magdalena was thought previously to be the only extreme European flood in 1342, our new documentary dataset suggests that it formed part of a broader sequence. The year with the greatest number of extreme floods during the past 700 years was 1342, and 1343 ranks among the top ten. This highly unusual sequence of floods had substantial socio-economic impacts, including a paradigm shift in flood mitigation measures in Europe. A series of volcanic eruptions along with multi-annual Arctic sea ice retreat is a plausible cause of this flood sequence. Clusters of extreme floods occurring within a few months are rarely considered in risk management. Quick and proactive risk strategies are needed that account for this eventuality. Increasing CO2 levels fertilize C4 grass production Kimberley Simpson et al. Nature, forthcoming  Abstract: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are impacting the global terrestrial biosphere through indirect climate effects and direct effects on plant performance. In tropical forests, long-term monitoring indicates a substantial CO2-driven carbon sink. C4-grass-dominated tropical and subtropical savannas contribute approximately 30% of terrestrial net primary production, and yet equivalent long-term analyses of CO2 responses are lacking. Here we show a clear and consistent result across a meta-analysis of 70 CO2-addition experiments and 32 years of in situ field observations from southern Africa: CO2 fertilization of wild C4 grasses is widespread in dry conditions. In experiments, grasses reduced stomatal conductance under higher levels of CO2, limiting water loss while increasing carbon gain. In the field, improved water use efficiency translated into increased C4 grass biomass production across three decades of observations. Finally, simulations via the Community Land Model suggest that CO2 fertilization of C4 grass aboveground productivity may continue to increase under future conditions. Together, these results challenge the view that C4 grasses are unresponsive to increasing levels of CO2, demonstrating instead that annual aboveground production of grasses in the field in southern Africa has increased by 28% over three decades (a CO2-driven increase of 75.1 g m−2 (95% confidence interval of 74.5–75.8 g m−2) or 0.37 tons C ha−1 of annual production). Although the fate of this carbon is uncertain (depending on feedbacks with fire, herbivory and woody vegetation), effects on the global carbon cycle may be profound.