Импорт HVO в ЕС обогнал биодизель в 2025 году, несмотря на пошлины и рост цен

MethodologyContact usSupportLogin According to Eurostat data for 2025, total imports of biodiesel in 2025 reached 1.55 million tonnes, down from 1.99 million tonnes in 2024 and following similar declines since a peak of 3.72 million tonnes in 2019. But data from the European Biodiesel Board (EBB), attributed to Eurostat, showed definitive imports of unblended HVO at 1.76 million tonnes in 2025, overtaking biodiesel imports, the EBB said in its Statistical Report covering 2025. The year was the first full year of HVO data available after the EU introduced specific 10-digit codes for the product. This included volumes from Asia (1.46 million tonnes) and North America (180,000 tonnes) despite the EU implementing strict countervailing duties on products from China and the US in a bid to protect domestic production, reflecting high prices firmly opening arbitrage opportunities for exporters. Market participants have indicated firm demand continuing into 2026, despite sluggish near-term demand resulting from uncertainty caused by conflict in the middle East and limited upside to biofuel prices as a result, unlike core fossil fuel prices, prompting some sellers to blend directly or hold off selling for now. And this is despite HVO being priced at a significant premium to biodiesel, with renewable diesel, HVO (UCO), fob ARA last assessed by Fastmarkets at $2,652.80 per tonne on July 9, versus $1,599.75 per tonne for biodiesel, UCOME outright, fob ARA on the same day. Additionally, a decline in demand for biofuels made from crop feedstocks because of legislation changes, lagging HVO and biodiesel production capacity in Europe and a lack of movement on adjusting upward the so-called “blendwall” for biodiesel is set to buoy HVO imports from outside the bloc. “People in the market are now a lot more interested in HVO than in biodiesel,” a core European biodiesel producer and trader told Fastmarkets. Biodiesel demand slowed in the EU in 2025, with prices for key grades such as UCOME and RME growing at a slower rate than relevant feedstocks, as buyers increasingly turned to hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), according to EU market participants. And following the start of conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran earlier in 2026, biodiesel prices were slow to react to the rise in underlying fossil fuel prices. Premiums for crop grades over gasoil even briefly slipped into negative territory between 2-7 April – effectively meaning certain grades of biodiesel were cheaper than fossil diesel – buoyed by a dramatic rise in gasoil and with jet fuel reaching a record high. But for HVO, despite similar levels of volatility for underlying gasoil, prices remain far ahead of biodiesel and premiums significantly above gasoil, indicating firm demand. Demand for HVO has grown in part because of the ability to meet mandate targets quicker given that there is no blendwall to contend with, unlike conventional biodiesel where the standard level is 7% of a given road going diesel fuel mix, with provisions in the EU to go as high as 10% possible under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Producers of biodiesel have long been calling for the blendwall to be lifted, with 10% widely accepted, and higher blends of 20% more than able to be handled by the engines of heavy goods vehicles and buses. But few EU member states have gone from B7 to B10, while the UK hasn’t yet moved from B7 to B10 despite issuing calls for independent studies on the topic, with a decision on the issue not yet made. But with HVO, given that mandate targets are measured as an overall percentage of the fuel delivered by an obligated party in a specific EU member state within an entire compliance year, rather than the percentage of biofuel in the road fuel mix at the pump, it allows mandates to be met sooner than by using biodiesel alone. Despite the introduction of anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel and HVO in 2024, the decline in biodiesel imports from Argentina has probably been the most dramatic change in the EU’s biofuel imports in recent years. Under the terms of a five-year agreement signed in 2019, the EU reliably imported around 1-1.2 million tonnes of biodiesel from Argentina annually with countervailing duties applied to volumes exceeding this amount, split neatly between quarters. But in 2025, despite an extension by the EU of the initial agreement, this fell to just over 300,000 tonnes, a quarter of what used to be exported annually. In 2026, the EU has reported no arrivals of biodiesel from Argentina in January to March. This has been partly drven by the increasing usage in the EU of HVO over biodiesel – but not just because of the benefit of being able to blend more HVO as mentioned earlier, but also because the vast majority of HVO, particularly outside of North America, is increasingly made from non-crop feedstocks. RED III incentivizes the use of biofuels made from certain waste-based and so-called “advanced” feedstocks. They are split into two lists attached to annex 9 of the Directive, List A (wastes) and List B (advanced). The proposed abolition of double counting by Germany and the Netherlands this year, as part of their implementation of RED III, should further increase demand for waste-based and advanced-feedstock biofuels, with HVO a key part of the mix. Double counting allowed one tonne or litre of waste- or advanced-feedstock-based biofuel to count twice toward a member state’s mandate, unlike crop-feedstock-based biofuel. Argentinian biodiesel is primarily made from soybean oil, and many EU states including France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands have already effectively banned the use of biofuels made from soybean oil. Another factor in firm HVO import demand from European blenders is the slow pace of production, with plants being delayed or mothballed in recent years. Notable among these projects was Shell’s facility at its Pernis refinery in Rotterdam, which was expected to produce more than 800,000 tonnes of SAF and HVO combined, with Shell formally cancelling the project in September 2025, following a pause in construction. And BP followed suit, cancelling its plans for a HVO/SAF production facility in Rotterdam at the end of September last year. Additionally, other projects remain behind schedule while the demands of revised national road mandates under the RED III directive mean that the EU will still need to rely on imports to meet its blending needs. Total production capacity in Europe for HVO and SAF covering plants with operation start dates up to 2026 stands at 9.8 million tonnes, according to Fastmarkets data. But this includes SAF production, does not include current run rates which are usually well below total output capacity, and does not account for plant shutdowns, with Neste recently announcing a planned shutdown between August and October this year at its Porvoo facility. But while HVO production has struggled to pick up pace recently, biodiesel production woes that have similarly been acute in the past year. In the UK, Greenergy announced plant a shutdown of its core Immingham biodiesel production facility, citing poor production margins and market conditions. This followed a shutdown of Argent’s Motherwell facility in Scotland in 2024, and led to a response from industry, with the UK’s Renewable Transport Fuel Association (RTFA) expecting further closures. Yet, despite the higher cost of HVO relative to biodiesel, the preferential qualities of HVO in not having to contend with a blendwall, and the usage of Annex 9 feedstocks utilised in most HVO production will likely see demand for it outstrip biodiesel, further bolstering imports. For those trading in the biofuels and feedstocks market, we capture pricing across the complex marketplace, including biodiesel, glycerin, renewable identification numbers (RINs), California’s Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits and related certificate markets in Europe. Find out more.