Глобальная торговля свининой уходит от Китая: Мексика и Азия становятся ключевыми рынками

Global pork trade shifts away from China amid cooling demand - Rabobank Mexico, Southeast Asia emerge as key growth markets Global pork trade has shifted away from a China-driven model toward a more fragmented and regionally distributed market, according to a recent Rabobank report. As China's share of global imports declines, competition among exporters is intensifying across a broader range of destinations, while animal health challenges, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions add further volatility. Global trade volumes peaked around 12 million metric tons in 2020 and 2021, driven largely by China's African swine fever outbreak, which sharply reduced domestic supply and pushed import demand to unprecedented levels. A correction followed in 2022 and 2023 as China's production recovered, with volumes falling to just below 10 million metric tons. The market has since stabilized, though levels remain below the earlier peak. China's pork imports have declined significantly since their 2020–2021 peak, as domestic production rebounded and consumer demand growth moderated amid weaker macroeconomic conditions and a gradual shift toward poultry and beef. China's share of global pork imports fell from 43% in 2021 to 23% in 2025, with the decline most pronounced in pork meat. Mexico has emerged as the world's largest importer of pork meat (excluding offal), driven by domestic supply constraints, while Southeast Asian countries including the Philippines and Vietnam have increased imports to offset disease challenges and insufficient local production. This shift has primarily benefited exporters including the US, Canada, and Brazil.