Габон сократил прогноз доходов на 22%, сохранив расходы и ставя под угрозу программу МВФ

Gabon Cut Its Revenue Forecast by a Fifth and Kept Spending GABON · ECONOMY Key Facts - —The revision Gabon cut revenue forecasts by 22% to 3.24 trillion CFA francs (US$5.74 billion), but kept spending. - —The reaction Investors say the revision endangers a new IMF (International Monetary Fund) programme, requested in March. - —The oil dependency Oil provides about 50% of tax revenue, and falling prices forced the revision. - —The other mineral Gabon is a top manganese producer, and announced in 2025 a ban on raw exports starting in 2029. - —The politics General Brice Oligui Nguema, now Gabon’s president, won April’s election with 94.9%; his party holds 101 of 145 seats. - —The catch Despite the revenue shortfall, spending remains high, widening the deficit. - —The social picture About 858,000 people, roughly a third of Gabon’s population, live below the poverty line. Gabon’s revised budget cuts expected revenue by 22 percent to 3.24 trillion CFA francs (US$5.74 billion). It keeps most of its spending plan unchanged. Investors say this puts at risk the IMF programme Libreville asked for in March. Oil still gives about half of tax revenue, and oil is what changed. What the Gabon revised budget actually does The headline change is a 22 percent reduction in projected revenue, bringing the total to 3.24 trillion CFA francs (US$5.74 billion). That is a very large in-year revision by any standard. The expenditure side has not moved proportionately. The government has signalled it intends to keep spending at close to its original level despite the shortfall. The gap has to be financed, and Gabon’s options are borrowing at high yields or accumulating arrears. Neither is compatible with the fiscal consolidation an IMF programme would require. Investors reacted accordingly, with market participants saying in July that the revision puts a new Fund arrangement at risk. Gabon formally requested a programme in March. Why oil did the damage Oil accounts for roughly 50 percent of tax revenue. When the price falls, the fiscal position moves immediately and there is no domestic tax base large enough to absorb it. Production has also been in long-term decline, with mature fields and limited new investment. The revenue problem is therefore both cyclical and deep-seated. Manganese is the second pillar and a genuinely strategic one. Gabon is among the world’s largest producers, which matters for steel alloys and increasingly for battery chemistries. The government announced in 2025 that it will ban raw manganese exports from January 2029, to force domestic processing. Value addition takes years, and the budget gap is now. A government with a large mandate and a small margin General Brice Oligui Nguema led Gabon’s 2023 coup. He was elected president in April with 94.9 percent of the vote. His party, the UDB (Democratic Union of Builders), took 101 of 145 seats in October’s legislative elections. That is about as much political authority as an African executive can hold. It has not translated into fiscal room. He has spent considerable effort reassuring lenders and renegotiating debt built up under the previous administration. Markets have given him more credit than the numbers strictly justify. Gabon raised a US$920 million eurobond in August despite a junk rating. Its dollar bonds outperformed on an audit that has not been published. Both were covered in our earlier reporting. The audit nobody has seen Part of Gabon’s debt rally this year relied on a public accounts audit. Investors talked about it but did not read it. That is an unusual reason for a change in bond prices. The logic offered is that a full accounting of arrears and hidden liabilities would clear the way for a Fund programme. The logic against is that audits usually reveal more debt, not less. This is a familiar pattern from Mozambique and Zambia. Undisclosed liabilities have a way of surfacing precisely when a country needs a programme most. Until the document is public, the market is pricing a promise. That is a thin foundation for a sovereign trading at these levels. Publication would also settle a domestic argument. Gabonese creditors and contractors have their own claims about what the state owes them. Why Central Africa’s numbers matter to outside investors Gabon sits inside CEMAC, the Central African monetary union, whose members share a currency pegged to the euro and pooled reserves. One member’s fiscal slippage draws on everyone’s reserves. That is why the IMF treats Gabon as a regional question rather than a national one. Congo-Brazzaville is running its own debt problem inside the same union. For frontier bond investors, the union structure is both protection and contagion. The peg holds until the pooled reserves do not. Poverty is rising in an upper-middle-income country. About 858,000 people, roughly a third of the population, live below the poverty line. The World Bank expects that share to fall only slightly by 2028. That combination is politically volatile. An upper-middle-income label removes access to concessional finance while doing nothing for the household in Port-Gentil. What to watch next The first thing is whether a staff-level agreement with the IMF is reached at all, and on what fiscal path. The second is publication of the audit, which would either justify the bond rally or end it. The third issue is manganese policy. A processing rule enforced during a revenue crisis is very different from one announced in a good year. Frequently Asked Questions What did Gabon change in its revised budget? It cut overall revenue projections by 22 percent to 3.24 trillion CFA francs (US$5.74 billion), without an equivalent reduction in spending. Why does this affect the IMF programme? Gabon asked for an IMF programme in March. Investors say the revised budget puts that request at risk. How dependent is Gabon on oil? Oil provides about 50 percent of tax revenue, so a price fall moves the fiscal position immediately. What is Gabon’s position in manganese? It is among the world’s largest producers, giving it a role in steel alloys and battery chemistries. In 2025 it announced a ban on raw manganese exports starting in 2029. Who governs Gabon? General Brice Oligui Nguema, who led the 2023 coup, is now president. He won April’s election with 94.9 percent for a seven-year term. His party, the UDB, holds 101 of 145 legislative seats. Connected Coverage - The market side of this story is in the US$920 million eurobond and the audit nobody has seen. The resource policy behind it is covered in the manganese export ban. This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America. 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