Сингапур рассматривает термоядерный синтез как стратегический резерв для энергетики будущего

Sam Bernardo , Singapore From left to right: Thomas Forner, CEO and co-founder of Focused Energy; Xavier Garbet, professor at the School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences at Nanyang Technological University; and Prakash Sharma, vice president and head of scenarios and technologies at Wood Mackenzie. Several challenges around engineering and materials remain. Singapore's push to support artificial intelligence ( AI )-driven growth is putting fusion power in the spotlight, but experts disagree by decades on when the technology could contribute to the city-state's electricity supply. The Ministry of Trade and Industry raised Singapore’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5% on Aug. 11, citing stronger global spending on AI. The stronger economy is expected to lift electricity demand as Singapore relies almost entirely on imported fuel, has limited land for renewable energy, and faces growing power needs from data centres. Fusion has gained momentum since the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved ignition in December 2022, drawing billions of dollars in private investment into companies seeking to commercialise the technology. Singapore is also positioning itself in the sector. Commonwealth Fusion Systems LLC ( CFS ) signed a research agreement with the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR) in May, whilst its CEO identified Singapore as a potential hub for fusion energy. But the technology’s potential contribution to Singapore’s power mix remains uncertain. Industry projections point to possible commercial deployment in the mid-2030s, whilst independent analysis puts a meaningful role much further out, potentially beyond 2050. Asian Power spoke with a fusion developer, an academic researcher, and an industry analyst to assess the technology’s prospects and its potential role in Singapore’s electricity system. Thomas Forner, CEO and co-founder of Focused Energy GmbH Singapore sits at the intersection of two forces defining this decade: electricity demand driven by AI and near-total dependence on imported fuel. It's a position comparable to Germany's, though with less AI-driven growth. Fusion addresses both sides of that equation—it delivers firm, carbon-free power from a fuel that is effectively domestic since it's made from water, allowing Singapore to move toward energy independence. Singapore also has a compelling ecosystem. It has always been a bridge to Asia, with substantial capital available and strong universities for research. That's why we've been building relationships in Singapore for more than four years now. We see Singapore as a partner, a potential off-taker, and a hub for the broader Asian market. We have one investor from Singapore, (Singapore Innovate Pte. Ltd.), which has been invested in us for two years now, and I've visited Singapore many times over the past four years, largely through conferences. We've been in touch with several companies where we have letters of intent and are working on ideas for different projects—for example, A*STAR and [Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd.], both of which are part of Singapore's supply chain or research ecosystem. We're actively identifying further projects where we can collaborate. We've also had contact with power companies, particularly Singapore Power Ltd., though at a very early stage. Since our prototype power plant is still being built, it's been too early to have substantive discussions with a power provider. Our interest isn't only in supplying energy; it's about starting conversations now on how Singapore could build up an ecosystem early, ahead of constructing a fusion power plant perhaps 10 to 15 years from now. Moving fusion from pilot stage to commercial viability in Singapore starts with our reference plant, which we're designing and building in Germany with RWE AG. Singapore would then need a regulatory pathway—fusion requires its own licensing track, separate from fission. Off-take certainty is another piece: if you build, you need buyers. Local supply chain participation matters too, whether that's companies directly in Singapore or Singapore serving as a hub for the wider Asian supply chain. Capital and talent are essential as well—talent needs to be trained early, in partnership with universities, and Singapore already has fusion-adjacent capital in play, with Temasek invested in CFS. Finally, it comes down to timing—realistically, we're looking at the mid-to-late 2030s. The company is built on first principles. We've seen net energy gain in laser fusion, building on the success of NIF, and we've hired part of the team responsible for ignition at Livermore. We've defined all the subsystems of our fusion system and are executing at the subsystem level, raising their technology readiness levels and integrating them toward key milestones. Laser fusion is modular by nature, so we can design a larger machine and build it out step by step, which allows for de-risking and efficient use of capital. Our plan is to have our prototype fusion power plant up and running by 2035, with a demonstrator—not yet delivering energy, but demonstrating the full system—ready by 2030. We're also on a commercial path already, discussing Gen 1 versions of our power plant and looking for anchor customers, mainly countries interested in engaging on that Gen 1 system. On local partnerships and policy support: Capital is key, and SGInnovate is already invested, alongside other interesting vehicles in Singapore. Relationships with companies like ST Engineering and A*STAR are just as important—we can develop materials and coating mechanisms together, building out a local ecosystem. Joint academic partnerships matter too, and Singapore could be a strong addition. On a policy level, early discussions on purchase price agreements—where a government commits to buying fusion-generated electricity from a certain year—would help, as would progress on regulation and approval pathways for building a power plant. The biggest remaining technical barriers come down to two things: building out the supply chain for our lasers and mass-producing them at decreasing cost, since the laser is the most expensive piece of a power plant, and creating the perfect fusion target—the tiny pellets used to trigger each reaction—at the volume and consistency a commercial plant would need. There are also some remaining physics risks around mitigating laser-plasma instabilities, but all of this is on our roadmap. Southeast Asia's energy import dependence and land constraints do create a particular opportunity, but Singapore isn't the only market we're exploring. We're also looking at parts of the Middle East and the US. Still, Singapore stands out specifically as a potential hub for Asia, a place to establish an early generation of fusion power plants and then roll the technology out across the region. If fusion becomes commercially viable, its impact could be transformative—increasing the amount of available energy per capita by orders of magnitude, and opening the door to abundant, cheap power for new technology, desalination, and even large-scale carbon capture. Xavier Garbet, professor at the School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences at Nanyang Technological University and Temasek professor in clean energy at the Fusion Research Centre [Fusion could become part of Singapore's power mix], but not in the near future. It remains an emerging technology, and no fusion power plant has yet demonstrated commercial electricity production. Before fusion can contribute to Singapore's power mix, scientists and engineers must prove that fusion systems can operate reliably, generate electricity economically, and meet stringent safety and regulatory requirements. Most fusion companies are aiming for their first commercial plants in the 2030s, but these timelines remain ambitious and uncertain. The largest fusion experiment under construction, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), is expected to begin operating in the mid-2030s—though ITER is a scientific and engineering demonstration facility rather than a commercial power plant, and significant development will still be required before fusion can be deployed at scale. Singapore is taking a pragmatic approach by building expertise today, particularly through programs at Nanyang Technological University and A*STAR, so that it is well positioned when the technology matures. Singapore has several characteristics that could make it an attractive future market for fusion energy. It has limited domestic energy resources and relies heavily on imported natural gas, whilst expanding electricity imports from neighbouring countries. Fusion promises high energy density, meaning large amounts of electricity could be produced from a relatively compact facility, and Singapore has a strong track record of adopting advanced energy technologies that improve energy security and decarbonisation. The country may not be amongst the earliest deployment sites, but it is a natural candidate to evaluate fusion once the technology has been demonstrated elsewhere. Land constraints, often cited as a challenge for Singapore, may actually be less restrictive for fusion than for many other low-carbon energy options, as advances in high-temperature superconducting magnets are enabling more compact reactor designs. Fusion also offers advantages in waste management. Unlike conventional nuclear fission, it does not produce long-lived high-level radioactive waste, a meaningful benefit for a land-constrained country like Singapore. There has been genuine progress in fusion over the past decade, particularly in superconducting magnets, plasma control, and advanced materials, along with major advances in modelling and control of burning plasmas—an area we're actively contributing to at NTU. These developments have substantially increased confidence that fusion can eventually become a practical energy source, and are a major reason private investment has accelerated in recent years. However, scientific progress should not be confused with commercial readiness. Fusion has evolved from being primarily a scientific challenge into a large-scale engineering and industrial one. The physics is increasingly well understood, but building power plants that operate reliably and produce electricity at a competitive cost remains a formidable task. In short, fusion is no longer a distant scientific dream, but it is not yet a mature energy technology. Technology remains the primary obstacle to commercial viability. Key bottlenecks include developing superconducting magnets capable of producing sufficiently intense magnetic fields, materials able to withstand the plasma's high particle and energy fluxes, and designing breeding blankets that can produce tritium in situ. In Southeast Asia specifically, regulatory readiness and public acceptance will matter a great deal too, particularly since nuclear technologies require robust oversight frameworks. Ultimately, commercial viability will depend not just on whether fusion works, but on whether it can deliver electricity at competitive prices with high reliability. Singapore is well positioned to play several roles in the emerging fusion ecosystem, with its strongest opportunities likely as an R&D hub, advanced manufacturing partner, investor, and eventually an early customer of fusion-generated electricity. The collaboration between A*STAR and CFS reflects a broader strategy of participating in the global fusion supply chain and knowledge ecosystem, rather than simply waiting for the technology to mature. Local research institutions are contributing too—at NTU, for example, we're developing plasma diagnostics and measurement systems that could ultimately find applications in future fusion power plants. Whether Singapore ultimately hosts a fusion power plant remains an open question. My expectation is that Singapore's earliest and most significant contribution will be through research, advanced manufacturing, talent development, and strategic investment. If fusion succeeds commercially, its impact could be transformative. It would provide low-carbon power that isn't dependent on weather conditions and could reduce exposure to imported fossil fuel markets. For a country with limited land and rising electricity demand, fusion could complement solar energy and regional power imports by providing a reliable source of baseload electricity—though even under optimistic scenarios, it would likely enter Singapore's energy mix gradually rather than replacing existing sources all at once. Prakash Sharma, vice president and head of scenarios and technologies at Wood Mackenzie Ltd. Singapore is a potential market for next-generation nuclear, including SMR (small modular reactor) nuclear and fusion, given its ambition to decarbonise the energy systems and achieve 24/7 clean firm power supply. The government is exploring all technology options to improve energy security and has not committed to a timeline for nuclear. We think it’s a post-2050 opportunity for a meaningful contribution to the power mix. Singapore is an energy-disadvantaged country due to its limited land, high population density, and reliance on energy imports. But the same constraints that make Singapore energy-poor make it a strong candidate for nuclear [power]. Solar is the only viable domestic renewable, but land scarcity caps developments. The alternative sources for firm power supply, hydrogen-fired turbines, enhanced geothermal, and regional grid imports, are either not available at scale or will come at a levelised cost of north of $250 per megawatt-hour. Several challenges around engineering and materials remain. Plasma-facing materials, tritium breeding, and standardised reactor designs are unsolved at commercial scale. Of the 179 fusion projects announced, 103 are operating, 18 under construction and 58 planned. Most of them are experimental research devices, testing either magnetic confinement or inertial confinement configurations in laboratory conditions. Total planned capacity is over 1 gigawatt, mostly from prototypes and first-of-a-kind reactors located in the US, Japan, China, Europe, and the UK. Technology readiness is still a binding constraint globally. Until a device demonstrates sustained net energy and runs reliably enough for a power plant and supply chains are developed, everything else becomes secondary. In Singapore’s context, regulation and public acceptance are equally important. There is no regulatory framework in place, and it takes years to build one and requires government commitment. The population is dense and risk-averse. Whilst fusion avoids the risks of meltdown and long-lived waste, the word ‘nuclear’ carries political weight. There is a strategic opportunity for Singapore. It has the financial depth, engineering talent, and institutional credibility to be a first-mover in Southeast Asia.