Исторический Эль-Ниньо сохранит в Тампе жару и дожди до ноября

What a historic El Niño means for Tampa Bay fall weather TAMPA, Fla. - As fall approaches, here's what Tampa Bay can expect for temperatures, rainfall, and those first hints of cooler weather in the months ahead. Tampa Bay Fall Forecast Tampa’s rainy season doesn’t end when September arrives. In fact, September is still one of our wettest months of the year. Based on the 1991–2020 climate normals, we average about 6.09 inches of rain in September, followed by only 2.34 inches in October. Rainfall coverage then drops considerably in the fall, especially after September. September can still look and feel a lot like August, with frequent afternoon thunderstorms. The CPC’s fall outlook favors above-normal precipitation across parts of the Southeast, although the signal isn’t strong enough to say Tampa Bay is guaranteed to have a wetter-than-normal fall. Pacific Ocean Climate Drivers If you’re hoping for sweater weather anytime soon, you may have to wait a while. The Climate Prediction Center’s latest fall outlook is calling for a warmer-than-normal September, October and November across Florida, meaning Tampa Bay could have to wait a little longer for those true fall-like temperatures. Historically, the month-to-month change is pretty dramatic. September still feels like summer, with average highs around 90°. October's highs often drop into the mid-80s. November's highs fall closer to 80°. El Niño's impacts What’s influencing our fall weather? Our active El Niño is a major piece of the puzzle. El Niño is strengthening across the tropical Pacific, and the Climate Prediction Center says there’s a large chance that a very strong (potentially historic) El Niño will be in place during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter. El Niño happens when waters across the central and eastern tropical Pacific become warmer than normal, changing the jet stream and large-scale atmospheric circulation around the globe. For Florida, El Niño’s influence on temperature tends to become more noticeable as we head toward winter. During the fall, its temperature signal is relatively muted, while its precipitation influence can be more apparent. The CPC’s outlook notes a wetter signal across the Southeast associated with El Niño, although some smaller climate trends may work against that signal in some areas. This pattern also tends to favor cooler winter months in the Sunshine State. It's important to note, El Niño doesn’t mean every day will be rainy, or every cold front will be strong. It changes the odds and the overall pattern, not the weather on any individual day. The biggest El Niño impacts are typically felt during the winter months, so this fall could be something of a transition period as the pattern strengthens.  When does fall start in Florida? When does fall actually start in Florida? There are two definitions. Meteorological fall begins September 1 and runs through November 30. That’s the definition used for climate statistics and seasonal weather records. Astronomical fall begins on Sept. 22, 2026, when the autumnal equinox occurs. Neither date means Tampa suddenly becomes fall-like. The first cooler, drier air can often arrive in October, but those early cooldowns are often brief. Tampa Bay's more consistent cooldown typically doesn’t arrive until November. If you’re waiting for a spectacular display of red, orange and yellow leaves, Florida isn’t exactly New England. While we do get some changes with decreasing daylight, our warm subtropical climate limits us from getting the widespread fall foliage seen farther north. Instead, fall in Tampa is usually more about gradually losing the humidity, watching temperatures slowly come down, and enjoying increasingly comfortable days between cold fronts. The Source: The information in this story was gathered from official forecasts released by the Climate Prediction Center.