Рынок европейской недвижимости замедлился в 2026 году: объемы сделок упали на 10% из-за геополитики

European retail is the stand-out asset class within the European property sector with “high yields and strong income returns and near-record-low supply intensifying competition, according to Nuveen Real Estate’s ‘Global Trends and Tactics’ report. The asset manager says that in times of macro uncertainty, grocery-anchored and convenience retail, driven by non-discretionary spending, is precisely where capital should be focused. The report notes that European real estate investment market entered 2026 on a softer footing than its late-2025 momentum suggested with €47.3bn of European transactions recorded in Q1 2026, down 10% year-over-year, with geopolitical tensions and interest-rate uncertainty leading some investors to pause deals. Germany and France posted the biggest declines among the largest markets. UK activity also fell, though the UK remained Europe’s largest and most liquid market by a wide margin. The Netherlands was the standout bright spot, lifted by a large data-centre transaction and solid residential sales, while Southern Europe held up relatively well. By sector, office was the only major property type to see transaction volumes rise year-over-year (+11%), while industrial, retail and hotel all posted declines. Financing costs have moved against investors since the Middle East war began. The five-year swap rate climbed nearly 50bps through March and a further 10bps by mid-May, even as lending margins held roughly steady, says the fund manager. Developed-Europe REITs rallied more than 10% in the first two months of 2026 before giving back all those gains once the conflict escalated, leaving them roughly 2.5% down year-to-date. The report notes that European Commercial Real Estate (CRE) has already been through a substantial correction: office values sit 25% below their Q2 2022 peak, even after posting their best annual performance in three years in 2025. Retail yields, too, have reset materially over the past decade, leaving a wider, less-squeezed spread to government bonds than most other sectors and offering more cushion against higher borrowing costs. Ultimately, Nuveen says that the speed of market recovery will depend on how quickly the conflict is resolved. It adds: “Rapid de-escalation would likely see the current pause prove transient, allowing transaction volumes to resume their gradual recovery as uncertainty lifts and financing conditions normalize — echoing how markets absorbed prior shocks once the immediate disruption passed.” On a global level the report finds that global private real estate values have ticked up for six consecutive quarters. When income is included total returns have now been positive for eight consecutive quarters. In the first quarter of 2026, 19 out of 21 countries in the MSCI Global Quarterly Property Index delivered positive total returns for investors. Values rose in 14 of 21 countries, and although values slipped in seven countries, all but two had income returns which more than offset the fall in value. Over the trailing year to Q2 2026, investment volumes for income-producing property totalled $936 billion across the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific, which was a 24% increase relative to the same period last year – up 31% in the US, 16% in Europe and 20% in Asia Pacific.