Здравоохранение стало единственным сектором с ростом рабочих мест в Северном заливе Калифорнии в июле

Healthcare employment remained a bright spot across the North Bay in July, even as overall wage-and-salary jobs fell from June in all of the region’s six counties and labor forces contracted in five, according to state data released Friday. The private education and healthcare category, dominated by medical, dental and home assistance jobs, gained year over year in every North Bay county: up 1,500 jobs in Sonoma, 1,400 in Solano, 500 in Marin, 400 in Napa, 310 in Lake and 250 in Mendocino, the Employment Development Department reported. From June it was flat in Sonoma and Napa, added 100 each in Marin and Solano and 50 in Lake, and slipped 10 in Mendocino. Mendocino’s category remained up 3.6% from a year earlier, while Lake’s was up 5.5%. California lost 20,500 nonfarm jobs in July but remained up 112,700, or 0.6%, from a year earlier. Private education and health services added 2,100 jobs for the month and 134,700 over 12 months, while professional and business services lost 15,300 in July. “California’s labor market is holding up, but its foundations remain troublingly narrow,” Beacon Economics Research Manager Justin Niakamal wrote Friday, adding that healthcare is masking broader weakness and the falling unemployment rate reflects a shrinking labor force more than stronger hiring. Beacon’s seasonally adjusted figures showed Napa County leading Bay Area annual payroll growth at 2.2%, followed by Santa Clara County at 1.4%, Solano County at 0.8%, San Francisco at 0.7% and Sonoma County at 0.5%. Marin County fell 0.2%. Unemployment rose monthly across the North Bay but remained below July 2025. Marin and Napa counties, at 4.2%, were tied for fifth-lowest statewide, EDD figures show. Sonoma ranked ninth at 4.3%, Solano 22nd at 5.3%, Mendocino 29th at 5.5% and Lake 46th at 7.1%. Monthly increases were 0.1 percentage point in Sonoma and Napa, 0.2 in Marin and Mendocino, 0.3 in Solano and 0.5 in Lake. Year over year, rates fell 0.4 point in Sonoma and Marin, 0.3 in Solano, 0.2 in Napa, 0.5 in Mendocino and 0.1 in Lake. California and North Bay county labor force and unemployment California: 19,550,000, -286,300 (-1.4%) from July 2025, 5.1% unemployment (-0.4 from July 2025) Sonoma: 243,800, -5,800 (-2.3%), 4.3% unemployment (-0.4) Solano: 214,800, -5,400 (-2.5%), 5.3% unemployment (-0.3) Marin: 122,700, -3,500 (-2.8%), 4.2% unemployment (-0.4) Napa: 74,500, -800 (-1.1%), 4.2% unemployment (-0.2) Mendocino: 36,330, -160 (-0.4%), 5.5% unemployment (-0.5) Lake: 25,910, -660 (-2.5%), 7.1% unemployment (-0.1) Source: California Employment Development Department Declining unemployment is a bad thing? Local unemployment is edging down across the region, but for reasons that worry economists, Sonoma State University economist Robert Eyler said Monday. It’s “because the labor force is contracting slightly faster than the number of people who are working, the unemployment rate is going down,” Eyler said. “Unemployment should be going down because more people are being hired from the available labor force.” Eyler said another troublesome trend is core goods-producing industries are losing momentum. Local construction and manufacturing jobs are basically either flat or contracting. That matters, he said, because those sectors help power the broader economy. “They basically generate income from all over the place, bring it into the local economy, and then spread their effects positively throughout the economy. When they’re slipping a little bit, the dynamics of the local economy may also slow down,” Eyler said. Meanwhile, service sectors tied largely to local demand — healthcare, private education, and leisure and hospitality — are expanding. Leisure and hospitality jobs are up about 4% in Sonoma County and roughly 2% in Napa and Marin, he said, as the region continues to “right-size” from the pandemic’s hit to tourism. Downside of healthcare upside Yet the growth in healthcare and related fields comes with its own risks. Eyler said healthcare expansion can pull workers away from more export-oriented industries such as manufacturing and construction. The shifting labor landscape is forcing colleges and training providers to make difficult bets about which programs to build out, and how far ahead to invest. “That’s been that’s sort of the holy grail in workforce development is can you find major employers that are willing to kind of give you a six- to nine-month outlook to where you can say, ‘OK, if you’re telling me you’re going to need 25 people in this, then we’re going to find a provider, we’re going to act as the ombudsperson, we’re going to link the two worlds, and bang, in nine months, you’re going to get the people you need.’” Local examples include College of Marin’s partnership with auto repair shops to train badly needed technicians, Napa Valley College’s expanded hospitality and wine programs, and Solano Community College’s new cosmetology center and advanced manufacturing program. as proof that targeted training can work. “So you can do it, but you’re making the stretch bet from the educational institution standpoint that there will be continued demand,” he said. The financial risk for community colleges and training centers can be substantial, especially when programs require expensive facilities and equipment. “The problem is, if it takes you half a million or a million dollars to purchase the capital to serve the training of those people, then if the demand goes away, where’s the ROI on how you built up the program? And what do you do with what’s on the way?” Eyler asked. “The worst thing for me from a PR standpoint is I pump a bunch of students out, and there’s nowhere to go.” Does the job market reflect changing demographics? Eyler said the shrinking labor force likely reflects deeper demographic shifts. “It’s either net outbound migration of workers or it’s an aging population that’s leaving the labor force — or a combination of the two,” he said. “If it’s continuing to age, then this problem is going to get worse before it gets better,” Eyler said. Upcoming census and labor-market revisions will be critical to determining whether the region’s recent numbers mark a temporary blip or a more permanent shift in its economic foundation. The number of local residents available to work has been declining. Sonoma’s labor force fell 600, or 0.2%, monthly and 5,800, or 2.3%, yearly; employment fell 900, or 0.4%, and 4,500, or 1.9%. Solano’s force fell 300, or 0.1%, and 5,400, or 2.5%, while employment fell 800, or 0.4%, and 4,300, or 2.1%. Napa’s force fell 500, or 0.7%, and 800, or 1.1%; employment fell 600, or 0.8%, on both comparisons. Marin’s force rose 400, or 0.3%, monthly but fell 3,500, or 2.8%, yearly; employment rose 200, or 0.2%, but fell 2,800, or 2.3%. Mendocino’s force fell 370, or 1%, and 160, or 0.4%, while employment fell 430, or 1.2%, but rose 40, or 0.1%, yearly. Lake’s force fell 380, or 1.4%, and 660, or 2.5%; employment fell 470, or 1.9%, and 580, or 2.4%. Here’s how other major job sectors fared in the North Bay. Government fell in every county, from 590 jobs in Lake to 3,400 in Sonoma. Leisure and hospitality rose in five counties, led by gains of 300 each in Sonoma and Solano, while Napa lost 100. Manufacturing increased in Sonoma, Napa, Solano and Lake, was flat in Marin and edged lower in Mendocino. Jeff Quackenbush joined North Bay Business Journal in May 1999. Reach him at [email protected] or 707-521-4256.