Эксперт ставит под сомнение реалистичность роста экспорта Ямайки на фоне падения объемов торговли

Elizabeth Morgan | Is increasing exports of goods a realistic prospect for Jamaica? Loading article... With visitors from Ghana and South Africa, there has been some attention to trade, with talk of increasing exports to Africa. The president of Ghana mentioned the possibility of integrating CARICOM into the Africa Continental Free Trade Area. Minister of Industry, Investment and Commerce, Senator Aubyn Hill, proposed the creation of a Jamaica-South Africa Investment Delivery Group to drive and strengthen trade and investment opportunities between the two countries. Over the last eight years, this column has addressed Jamaica’s trade in goods and services with its trading partners. The situation revealed has not been encouraging overall. State of Global Trade According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, trade in goods and services has been expanding. However, a significant share of the increase is not due to volume, but to higher prices for energy, transport, logistics, and production resulting from the various geopolitical issues. East Asia was the main engine of growth in trade in goods, including in South-South trade. For Africa and the Americas, there was a stronger growth in imports. Excluding Asia, trade among developing countries was actually declining. The trade measures in use now are unilateral protectionism and diversifying trade to shift supply chains. So, the global environment for trade is challenging. Jamaica’s goods trade under Agreements Jamaica exports goods duty-free under trade agreements into the markets of Canada, the United Kingdom (UK), the European Union (EU), and the countries of CARICOM. In addition, there are trade agreements with the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Cuba. Officially, there is a CARICOM-Venezuela trade agreement. Jamaica also exported with the USA duty-free under the Caribbean Basin Initiative until the advent of President Donald Trump in his second term. Looking at the statistics for Jamaica’s trade with these countries, they are not encouraging. Jamaica’s imports from, and exports to, Canada in 2024 and 2025 averaged about US$105 million. Total trade between Jamaica and Canada in 2025 was US$221 million. In 2000, Jamaica exported approximately US$134 million in goods to Canada and imported US$98.3 million and had a trade surplus with Canada. The total trade was US$232.3 million. Jamaica’s trade with Canada does not seem to be making much progress. Jamaica, under the UK-CARIFORUM Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA), is now importing more goods from the UK than it is exporting. In 2025, Jamaica imported goods valued at US$84 million from the UK and exported goods valued at US$78 million, giving the UK a surplus. In 2000, Jamaica exported goods valued at US$150 million to the UK and imported US$98 million. This looks like exports have contracted. Jamaica trades with the EU under the EU-CARIFORUM EPA, but what seems to have happened is that imports from the EU are increasing. In 2025, Jamaica exported approximately US$182 million in goods and imported US$492 million, and thus the EU now has a surplus with Jamaica. Jamaica has had a consistent trade deficit with the USA, with imports increasing. In 2025, Jamaica imported goods valued at US$2.6 billion from the USA and exported goods valued at US$379.2 million, with the deficit being US$2.3 billion. Nevertheless, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on goods imported from Jamaica. In 2000, Jamaica imported US$1.51 billion in goods from the USA and exported US$512 million. It seems that Jamaica’s exports to CARICOM countries increased in 2025. There was not much activity under the other trade agreements with other Caribbean and Central and South American countries. Overall for 2025, Jamaica’s imports from the world increased and its exports declined. Imports from the world were US$7.5 billion, an increase of 3.2 per cent, and exports were US$1.7 billion, a decline of 13.4 per cent. So, it seems the reality is that Jamaica has been back-pedalling in trade in goods, with the volume of exports declining, and the volume and value of imports increasing. Trade in Services To get a clear indication of Jamaica’s position in international trade, one has to look also at the data for earnings from trade in services. In Jamaica, this is mainly exports in tourism and business process outsourcing and digital services. It seems that Jamaica earned US$4 billion from tourism in 2025, in spite of disruptions caused by Hurricane Melissa. On business process outsourcing and digital services, in a report of August 10, Yoni Epstein, the newly elected president of the Global Services Association of Jamaica, is reported as saying that Jamaica has lost its competitiveness in this services sector. Job numbers have declined - not increased as was expected. So, it seems that there could be challenges in growing trade in services exports as well. The EU-CARIFORUM EPA covers trade in services, but this section has not been used as far as is known. Is increasing exports realistic? So, as there is talk about increasing exports to Africa, the question does have to be posed: whether this is realistic, if Jamaica cannot increase exports to Canada. If Jamaica’s production is low and its goods are not competitive, can it seek to enter new markets? Jamaica’s trade in both goods and services needs to be further examined. As a small economy, without increasing investments and exports of goods and services, Jamaica cannot achieve sustained positive economic growth of about three per cent, at least, to expand the economy and provide more lucrative jobs. Jamaica’s growth rate is now reassessed at about 1%-1.6%. Jamaica is seeking to achieve growth in an increasingly difficult global environment. Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to [email protected].