Южноафриканцы сокращают потребление фруктов из-за роста цен и переходят на дешевые овощи

© Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.comSouth Africans are eating less of the traditional fruit types, and as the economy pinches, even staples like fresh tomatoes are making way for more satiating vegetables such as cabbage and pumpkin. Hester Vermeulen tracks South Africans' consumption behaviour at the Bureau for Food Agricultural Policy (BFAP) and the intensifying pressure on food expenditure among South African households is evident. Analysing Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by Statistics South Africa, the inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages averaged 3.3% year-on-year during the first five months of 2026. "This trend was driven primarily by a surge in red meat prices linked to a shortage following the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, alongside sustained price pressure from rising fuel and electricity costs in recent months," she explains. Food and non-alcoholic beverages account for 18.23% of total household expenditure in the CPI basket. Within that, the weight attributed to fruits and nuts is only 0.62 points and to vegetables 1.74 points, compared to meat (5.10 points) and cereals and grains (4.14 points). Clear shift to starch-rich vegetables The current CPI basket weighting is based on the most recent nationally representative household income and expenditure survey in South Africa, conducted in 2022/2023 and published last year. The expenditure weights suggest that fresh produce accounts for a relatively small share of household food spending. "This is concerning," she remarks, "as fruits and vegetables provide superior nutritional value through a concentration of essential micronutrients (such as vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants) and health-promoting macronutrients like complex carbohydrates and dietary fibre." In contrast to meat price trends, Stats SA reported general deflation in fresh produce categories for the first five months of 2026: fruit and nut prices fell by 7.6% and vegetables by 2.9% YoY. Lower prices for staple vegetables like cabbage, spinach, tomatoes, carrots and potatoes drove the vegetable price decline, increasing affordability and nutritional accessibility for consumers. © Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.comCabbage consumption has risen by 45% over the past decade Within the vegetable category, retail prices did, however, increase for foods such as pumpkin (+17% YoY), bell peppers (+7.4%), cucumbers (+6%) and onions (+1.3%). A decade-long analysis of per capita consumption (based on BFAP estimates and data from the 2026 Abstract of Agricultural Statistics) reveals a clear shift in South African dietary patterns. "Consumption of starch-rich vegetables has risen significantly, with cabbage leading the growth (+45%), followed by pumpkin (+22%), sweet potatoes (+13%), carrots (+4%) and potatoes (+3%). These trends underscore a growing reliance on filling, energy-dense vegetables as consumers navigate challenging economic conditions." © Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.comThe last decade has seen a decline in beetroot consumption and a slight increase in that of carrots Drop in tomato sales a critical economic indicator Conversely, Vermeulen says, higher-value vegetables have seen a marked decline, with consumption of green peas, cauliflower, green beans and beetroot dropping between 24% and 60% in volume since 2015. Fresh tomato consumption has also fallen by 13% over the decade, with the sharpest decline occurring over the last few years. She says that this decline may have been partially offset by a shift toward canned tomatoes, which offer greater shelf stability. "Given that tomatoes typically represent the largest portion of fresh vegetable expenditure (excluding potatoes) for most South African households, this downward trend serves as a critical indicator of the intensifying pressure on consumer food budgets." © Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.com Declining purchases of apples, oranges, stonefruit For the first five months of 2026, the retail prices of apples, bananas, avocados and pears increased somewhat compared to a year ago (by +3.2% to +1.8% YoY), offset by 9.5% YoY deflation for oranges. "Despite operational issues at the Cape Town port resulting in an increase of apples to the domestic municipal markets, with a resulting price drop, these benefits have not yet reached the retail shelf and the consumer. While the citrus season is still unfolding, year-to-date export volumes are currently below those recorded in 2025, indicating that the marketable orange crop may be smaller than that of last season." Similar to vegetables, her ten-year analysis of per capita fruit consumption shows several significant shifts. While bananas saw a 4% increase in per capita consumption, probably as a result of its starch-rich, satiating nature and eating convenience, but traditionally frequently purchased fruit like apples and oranges have declined by up to 36%. Stone fruit consumption, especially of plums and apricots, likewise decreased significantly. Interesting to note is that higher value or luxury fruit options have gained consumption traction over the same period, among higher income households most likely. "This includes soft citrus (including clementines and mandarins), lemons, table grapes and blueberries. These trends were driven by factors such as increased availability, but also convenience and health." © Carolize Jansen | FreshPlaza.com Fruit costs roughly seven times more than maize (corn) meal The World Health Organisation recommends a daily intake of 400g of fruits and vegetables for adults, the equivalent to five 80g edible servings. "Between January and May 2026, the cost of an 80g serving of the dominant vegetables ranged from R1.53 to R2.66, averaging approximately five times the cost of a serving of maize meal. During the same period, dominant fruits were notably more expensive, with serving costs ranging from R2.58 to R3.31, or roughly seven times the cost of maize meal." © BFAP Average cost per 80g serving for dominant fruits and vegetables versus maize (corn) meal, January to May 2026 (Source: BFAP calculations based on Stats SA CPI retail price data) "We can see a clear divide in affordability. The most accessible vegetables include carrots, potatoes, and cabbage, while tomatoes, onions, and pumpkin occupy the higher price bracket. Among fruits, bananas emerge as the most affordable option, with a cost per serving comparable to that of tomatoes. These pricing dynamics suggest sustained downward pressure on the consumption of premium produce such as oranges and apples and a continued reliance on more affordable staples like bananas and cabbage," she concludes. For more information: Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy Email: [email protected] https://www.bfap.co.za/