МВБ предупредило Зимбабве о рисках форсированного отказа от доллара к 2030 году

Zimbabwe plans to phase out the US dollar by 2030, but the World Bank warns that moving too quickly to a ZiG-only economy could backfire. Published Sep 8, 2026 in Zimbabwe News Zimbabwe’s plan to phase out the US dollar and make the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) the country’s sole domestic currency by 2030 has come under scrutiny, with the World Bank warning that moving too quickly could undermine recent economic gains. The international lender says the destination may be reasonable, but the timing and sequencing of the transition will be critical. Zimbabwe’s 2030 currency plan faces a major test Zimbabwe has set 2030 as the deadline for ending the domestic use of the US dollar and moving towards a mono-currency system based on the ZiG. The ZiG was introduced in April 2024 after years of instability in Zimbabwe’s local currency. The move followed repeated currency crashes and high inflation, which had pushed many businesses and consumers towards the US dollar. However, the World Bank has warned against forcing a switch before confidence in the local currency is firmly established. “The government’s goal of transitioning to a mono-currency ZiG system carries a risk of premature de-dollarisation,” the lender said, according to reporting on its latest assessment. Why the World Bank is worried about a rushed switch The biggest concern is what could happen if Zimbabweans and businesses lose confidence in the ZiG before the currency is sufficiently credible. The World Bank pointed to Zimbabwe’s own experience in 2019, when authorities reintroduced a local currency after years of dollarisation. It warned that forcing a transition before credibility is established could trigger capital flight, widen the gap between official and parallel-market exchange rates and reverse some of the stabilisation gains achieved so far. That makes the 2030 target less about simply removing the US dollar and more about whether Zimbabwe can build enough confidence in the ZiG before that deadline. Zimbabwe has made progress, but challenges remain The warning comes despite signs that Zimbabwe’s economic conditions have improved. In a report released on 4 September, the World Bank said fiscal and monetary discipline had helped bring local-currency inflation into single digits in early 2026, the first time this had happened since 1997. The economy also recorded average real GDP growth of almost 6% between 2021 and 2025. The bank, however, says Zimbabwe now needs to turn this macroeconomic stability into stronger investment, productivity and employment. It estimates that continuing on the current path would result in average growth of about 4% through 2030, while faster structural reforms could significantly improve growth and job creation. What could happen if Zimbabwe moves too fast? For ordinary Zimbabweans, the currency debate goes beyond what appears on banknotes. A loss of confidence in the ZiG could affect how businesses price goods, how workers are paid, how people save and how companies plan for imports and investment. If demand for US dollars remains high while their domestic use is restricted, the gap between official and informal exchange rates could widen. That is precisely the risk the World Bank wants policymakers to avoid. The lender’s message is therefore not necessarily that Zimbabwe should abandon its ZiG-only ambition. Instead, it is warning that credibility must come before consolidation.