Рост серьезных просрочек по ипотеке в США: проблема смещается в глубокую стадию долгов

Residential News » Irvine Edition | By WPJ Staff | September 2, 2026 8:51 AM ET U.S. mortgage performance remained broadly stable in June 2026, with the national delinquency rate still near historically low levels. Stress is showing up further down the pipeline. Early-stage missed payments declined, while serious delinquencies rose and, as of March, were increasing in more than 70% of metropolitan areas. Cotality's latest Loan Performance Indicators put the share of U.S. mortgages at least 30 days past due, including loans in foreclosure, at 3.0% in June, up 0.1 percentage point from June 2025. The foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, unchanged from a year earlier. Cotality said that rate has moved between 0.2% and 0.3% since 2019 and that the June reading was 0.1 percentage point above the series low. The company also said the June foreclosure rate had held steady over the prior three months. That is below the 0.4% six-year high Cotality reported for March, indicating foreclosure inventory rose in the first quarter and eased by midyear. Later-stage loans are the weak point Cotality's June breakdown: Cotality defines serious delinquency as loans 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure. The front of the pipeline improved. The stock of seriously delinquent loans did not. That distinction matters. A modest rise in newly delinquent borrowers can coexist with a rising number of loans that stay delinquent. The June figures point less to a wave of first missed payments and more to borrowers already behind having a harder time catching up. National calm, local variation In June, 24 states posted year-over-year increases in overall delinquency. Indiana, Mississippi and Nebraska each rose 0.3 percentage point, the largest state gains. Other states ranged from a decline of 0.5 percentage point to an increase of 0.2 percentage point. Among metropolitan areas, 209 of 384 markets recorded annual increases in overall delinquency. The largest were Terre Haute, Indiana, up 0.9 percentage point; Carbondale-Marion, Illinois, up 0.8 percentage point; and Manhattan, Kansas, up 0.7 percentage point. Other metros ranged from a decline of 1.6 percentage points to an increase of 0.6 percentage point. The serious-delinquency map is wider, and that reading is from March, not June. In March, 282 of 384 metros posted year-over-year increases in serious delinquency. Terre Haute; Anniston-Oxford, Alabama; Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida; and Vineland-Bridgeton, New Jersey, each rose 0.6 percentage point. Other markets ranged from a decline of 0.4 percentage point to an increase of 0.5 percentage point. The increase in later-stage delinquency is not confined to one region. The still-low June foreclosure inventory rate means it has not yet shown up as a broad national foreclosure wave. Disaster costs can change local outcomes Severe weather remains a reason two markets with the same national backdrop can perform differently. "While national mortgage performance remains stable, disaster risk continues to shape local outcomes," said Molly Boesel, senior principal economist at Cotality. "Areas recovering from wildfires, hurricanes, flooding, and other severe weather events often experience higher levels of borrower distress, even when national delinquency measures appear calm. Recent wildfire activity is a reminder that natural disasters can have lasting financial effects on homeowners, particularly when rebuilding costs and insurance challenges persist long after the event itself." A homeowner with equity and a low locked-in rate can often absorb higher ownership costs. A borrower facing elevated insurance premiums or rebuilding bills can move from current to serious delinquency much faster. Stable, not risk-free The June data do not resemble the mortgage-credit conditions that preceded the 2008 crisis. Cotality's national delinquency rate remains far below the roughly 12% peak reached around 2010, and foreclosure inventory is still low by longer historical standards. The direction of the parts is still worth watching. New delinquencies are not accelerating sharply. Serious delinquencies are rising, and in March that rise reached most of the markets Cotality tracks. Foreclosure inventory was lower in June than in March. For lenders and investors, the practical question is less whether U.S. mortgage delinquencies are breaking out nationally. They are not. It is where borrowers are failing to recover after they fall behind, and whether those local pockets begin to lift foreclosure inventory again.