Электромобили в Китае сократили потребление нефти на 50% больше прогноза, а выбросы CO2 упали впервые за полгода

EVs emerge as a major factor Jacobson’s observation highlights the potential speed at which oil demand can decline when electric mobility reaches sufficient scale. In China, the impact of EVs on oil consumption was significantly larger than would be expected simply from the increase in the number of EVs on the road. According to the analysis, the effect was almost twice as large as the impact expected from the growth in the EV fleet alone. This was because existing EVs were also being used more intensively. The amount of oil consumption displaced by EVs in China during the first half of 2026 exceeded the UK's total oil consumption during six months. Public transport also contributed to the change, allowing transportation activity to increase even as fuel consumption declined sharply. However, the analysis cautions that EV adoption and public transport alone do not fully explain the scale of the decline. Behavioural changes are identified as another possible factor. China’s emissions fall despite higher coal use China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell 1% in the second quarter of 2026, marking a notable shift in the drivers of emissions. The decline occurred even as coal-fired power generation continued to rebound. According to the analysis, this was the first time that falling oil consumption was responsible for an overall reduction in China’s CO2 emissions, whereas coal consumption had driven previous declines. China’s emissions had risen 2% in the first quarter of 2026 before falling 1% in the second quarter. Across the first half of the year, emissions were marginally higher, although they remained below their peak recorded in 2023-24. Coal remains a challenge The transition is not uniform across China’s energy system. Curtailment of solar and wind generation contributed to higher coal-fired power generation despite strong hydropower output, expanding renewable capacity and slower electricity demand growth. Large additions to coal-power capacity and a power market that continues to favour coal have also limited the amount of coal generation displaced by new renewable capacity. Coal consumption growth in chemicals production slowed to 8% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 15% in 2025 and 19% in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, China is expected to add enough wind, solar, nuclear and hydropower capacity in 2026 to cover growth in electricity demand. For Jacobson, the rapid decline in oil use underscores how quickly transport-related fossil-fuel demand can change when EV adoption and utilisation accelerate.