Научные методы побороть привычку: как поведенческая психология поможет выдержать «Сухой июль»

In this op-ed, Ogilvy group strategy director Matt Richards unpacks why Dry July is such a tough ask, and how the science of habit-forming can help you actually make it to August. Ten million years ago, apes acquired a taste for alcohol. According to The Economist, it gave us an evolutionary edge. As rainforests receded, 90% of apes went extinct – but one clever ape survived by leaving the trees and foraging on the ground. The ancient version of the pub. There they found fallen fruit. Fallen fruit ferments. And just like that, our ancestors discovered alcohol – a calorie-rich survival hack. For context, an apple ferments to around 5 per cent alcohol. About the same as a VB. No surprise then that Dry July is a challenge – we’re fighting ten million years of biology. But it’s a challenge worth taking on, and one that raises vital funds for Australians affected by cancer. Luckily, we have a tool that can help – behavioural science. This is the study of how people actually behave, not how they say they will. At Ogilvy, we run a dedicated behavioural science practice built on a simple belief: at the heart of every effective campaign is an effective change in behaviour. For marketers, this isn’t just useful for July. Changing behaviour is the whole job. What Is a Habit? James Clear (Atomic Habits) defines a habit as a behaviour repeated until it becomes automatic. And every habit runs on a four-step loop: Cue → Craving → Response → Reward. The pub is the perfect case study. You walk in. You see the taps. Your brain wants the release. You order the pint. That first cold sip hits, and your nervous system sighs. Loop complete. Repeat till last orders. I know this loop intimately. Whilst living in London, I’d attempt dry January every year (the British version of Dry July). Week one: just about fine. Week two: I’d find myself at a pub, fully intending to order a soda water, and hear my own voice say “Three pints of Guinness, please.” My rational brain never got a look-in. Here are three principles that might just help you reach 31 days – and help your next campaign. 1. Habit Substitution It’s hard to erase a ten million year old habit – but you can swap it. If the reward you’re chasing is relaxation and connection, simply removing the drink leaves a void. And voids get filled, usually with the very thing you were avoiding. The fix is substitution: keep the cue, keep the reward, change the drink. Grab a Heaps Normal or another non-alc. Your brain accepts it as close enough. The Savlon ‘Healthy Hands Chalk Sticks’ campaign by Ogilvy Mumbai proves this. Millions of Indian schoolchildren wash their hands with just water, spreading illness. Rather than fighting the habit, the team embedded soap directly into chalk sticks. The children kept their exact routine – writing on slates, rinsing their hands – but the chalk dust lathered naturally into soap. Same habit. Different outcome. 2. Reframing Framing shows that people respond entirely differently to identical situations depending on how they’re presented. I failed dry January every year because I focused on what I was missing – the pub on Friday afternoon. The reframe for dry July is simple: shift from “I’m giving up alcohol” to “I’m getting my mornings back” or “I’m raising money for people with cancer.” Same month. Different experiences. Virgin Australia & Special’s ‘Middle Seat Lottery’ did exactly this. Their campaign turned every middle seat into a lottery ticket for major prizes. Passengers went from “I’m trapped” to “I’m in the draw.” A change of context that made sitting in the middle row something to be excited about. 3. Public Commitment A private promise is easy to quietly break. A public one raises the psychological cost of failure dramatically – because now your identity is on the line, not just your willpower. The designated driver is a masterclass in this. Originating in Scandinavia, the concept did something simple: it gave the sober person a name. You’re no longer the person not drinking. You’re the designated driver. The behavioural difference is enormous. Dry July works the same way. Every donation collected, every post shared, every colleague who asks how it’s going – is another brick in a commitment architecture that’s genuinely hard to walk away from. You’re not just giving up alcohol. You’re protecting a public identity. This July, sign up and tell your mates: dryjuly.com Behavioural Science Isn’t a Nice-to-Have David Ogilvy once said: “People don’t think what they feel, they don’t say what they think, and they don’t do what they say.” Behavioural science has spent the years since proving him right – and yet it remains one of the most underutilised tools in our industry. Australia’s advertising market is approaching $30 billion annually. Yet data from The Trade Desk shows 73 per cent of Australians admit they actively switch off to ads. We are spending billions trying to change what people do, without applying the science of how people actually change. The question worth sitting with this July is a simple one: when did you last put behavioural science at the centre of a brief?