Аналитики предсказывают восстановление акций Carnival Cruise в октябре

Cruise ship giant Carnival (CCL) hasn't enjoyed a strong performance recently and for good reason. With global economic headwinds and rising fuel cost concerns representing key barriers, investors took the safe road out and trimmed their exposure to CCL stock. That's fine but there's both a fundamental and quantitative signal that suggests a turnaround could be possible in October. According to Google Finance's summary sheet, while Carnival delivered a solid second-quarter earnings print, escalating geopolitical crises have caused significant investor jitters. Over the trailing month, CCL stock has slipped more than 5%, contributing to a year-to-date loss of nearly 16%. Subsequently, the Barchart Technical Opinion indicator rates the ticker as a 56% Sell. More News from Barchart - QQQ is Still in a Negative Gamma Regime. Here's How a 'Put Wall' and Fibonacci Support Could Come Into Play. - Huge, Unusual Put and Call Option Volume in Intel - Investors Bullish as INTC Drops - Why the China-Led Weakness in NXP Semiconductors Stock Could Open Doors for Speculators - Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! However, investors may be determined to end Carnival stock on a high note this year. Fundamentally, Google Finance notes that for the next quarter, "market consensus suggests a strong seasonal performance supported by robust booking demand and solid EBITDA guidance." That might not just be empty words. Barchart's volatility skew for the Oct. 2 options chain reveals a protective "smile" posture, but one that leans toward out-the-money (OTM) put-side protection, suggesting concerns about sharp volatility in Carnival stock. However, the Oct. 16 skew — while also demonstrating a smile — leans slightly more to OTM calls. In other words, while traders are still concerned about downside risks in CCL stock, they also recognize that the ticker could swing dramatically higher. And that's possibly evidenced by the market consensus for strong seasonal demand. It's also interesting that the next earnings date is scheduled for Oct. 5. One possible interpretation is that the market is waiting for the weak hands to fully exit themselves from Carnival stock. If that happens — and if Carnival can deliver the goods in Q3 — CCL could be on its way to posting a recovery in October. Challenging the Assumptions Baked into CCL Stock Option Pricing Given the possible recovery of CCL stock, I'm looking at the 27/28 bull call spread expiring Oct. 16. It's intriguing because of the low net debit per spread, which comes in at $46. Should CCL rise through the $28 second-leg strike at expiration, the maximum profit would be $54, a payout of 117.39% at time of writing.