Технический анализ: биткоин теряет импульс роста и возвращается к снижению

Bitcoin’s technical picture is starting to shift back to the downside after buyers failed to extend the recent rally through an important area of resistance on the daily chart. Daily chart: The recovery runs into resistance Starting with the broader daily chart, as a review Bitcoin’s rebound higher accelerated after the price moved back above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages back on August 19. That breakout gave buyers the technical go-ahead to push higher. However, the rally stalled within a key swing area between $80,560 and $82,833 toward the end of August and into September too. That zone has repeatedly attracted sellers since that time. The swing area was defined by swing lows and highs going back to November 2025. Just above that swing area is another important target: the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the October 2025 high, which comes in at $83,916. Why is that retracement important? When a market suffers a significant decline, the 38.2% retracement is often the first major test of whether a rebound is developing into something more substantial. If buyers cannot push through that level, the recovery can remain nothing more than a correction within the broader decline. In this case, Bitcoin could not get through either the $80,560–$82,833 swing area or the 38.2% retracement at $83,916. That failure is a modest technical negative and has helped shift the focus back toward the downside. For buyers to regain greater control on the daily chart, they would need to move above $82,833 and then extend through $83,916. Until that happens, the sellers remain in play. Hourly chart: The short-term bias turns lower Drilling down to the hourly chart, today’s price action has taken Bitcoin below its 200-hour moving average at $79,007. The break by itself was bearish, but what happened afterward provided additional confirmation. Bitcoin staged a corrective move higher a few hours ago and retested the 200-hour moving average from below. Instead of moving back above it, the price found willing sellers and subsequently extended to new session lows. That is a classic example of former support becoming resistance. The 100-hour moving average at $79,538 is also positioned just above the 200-hour moving average. Together, those two moving averages now form an important resistance cluster between approximately $79,007 and $79,538. Staying below gives the sellers the advantage and opens the door toward the recent lows in the consolidation area at $76,229 and below that at $75,568 (lows from September 2 and August 23 respectively). What would change the bearish bias? As long as Bitcoin remains below both hourly moving averages, sellers have more control over the short-term direction. The technical roadmap is straightforward: Staying below $79,007–$79,538 keeps the short-term bias tilted to the downside. Moving back above both moving averages would weaken the bearish bias and give buyers another opportunity. A sustained move above $80,560 would improve the picture further. Breaking above $82,833, followed by the 38.2% retracement at $83,916, would be required to give buyers firmer control on the daily chart. The lesson for traders is that moving averages are not merely lines on a chart. What matters is how the price behaves around them. Bitcoin broke below the 200-hour moving average, retested it, and found sellers. That price action gives traders a clearly defined bearish bias and, equally important, a clearly defined level where that bias would begin to change.