Проблемы внедрения топлива E20 в Индии: эксперты призывают к пересмотру политики

In The Decision Process (1956), political scientist Harold Lasswell described policymaking as a set of distinct functions, from gathering intelligence and framing choices to implementation and appraisal. His core point was that success in one function cannot make up for failure in another. Charles Lindblom’s The Science of Muddling Through (1959) added a related lesson: since policymakers cannot foresee every consequence, implementation must leave room for learning and revision. India’s E20 rollout, and the controversy surrounding it, show why both insights matter. The case for blending The strategic case for ethanol blending is easy to see. PPAC data put India’s crude-import dependence at 88.6 per cent in April 2025-January 2026. Reducing that dependence lowers exposure to oil shocks and creates demand for domestic feedstocks. The government reports that blending has risen from 1.53 per cent in 2013-14 to 20 per cent in 2025-26, alongside more than ₹1.66 lakh crore in farmer payments, ₹1.97 lakh crore in forex savings, and nearly 316 lakh tonnes of crude substitution. While the gains are real, they do not capture the full incidence of the transition. Reportedly, the mandated change to the petrol blend affected vehicles designed for an earlier fuel specification, leaving existing owners to bear the adjustment cost. With E0 barely available at pumps, owners with older vehicles had little option but to accept the mileage penalty or component-related costs associated with E20. Those costs were not part of the calculation when the vehicles were purchased. Effectively, the policy changed the return on an asset after the investment had already been made. The government, it turns out, had not a priori established how large that cost was. On July 27 in the Rajya Sabha, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas acknowledged that the Ministry of Heavy Industries had not assessed what share of the existing fleet was fully E20-compatible. It also accepted that non-compatible vehicles could face a 3-5 per cent drop in fuel economy. This implies that the transition rolled ahead without any clear estimate of how widely those costs might fall. That blind spot partly reflects the way the blending target came to define success. A 20 per cent blending goal gave distilleries, oil companies and vehicle manufacturers the confidence to invest. But as those investments were made and supply chains adjusted, changing course appears to have become harder. As progress is judged mainly by whether blending targets are met, questions such as fleet readiness and consumer costs have received less attention. The target appears to have driven the policy instead of serving it. Lasswell’s emphasis on appraisal and Lindblom’s emphasis on learning become relevant here. Policymakers cannot be expected to foresee every consequence before a policy is introduced, but evidence that emerges during implementation should shape what happens next. Questions about mileage, vehicle compatibility, and warranties are part of that evidence. Dismissing them as “myths” or “fear mongering” risks ignoring information on how the transition has affected users. International evidence suggests that policy credibility does not require policy irreversibility. When Britain introduced E10, it retained E5 as a protection grade, provided a vehicle-compatibility checker and built in a review. India need not copy that model, but the principle is useful. Environmental performance should also be assessed through lifecycle emissions, water use, and feedstock choice, rather than blending volumes alone. Policy scholarship has long reminded us that a policy is not complete once adopted. Revising an instrument in the light of experience is part of governing, not an admission of retreat. The concerns raised by E20 should therefore be treated as feedback that the original design did not adequately incorporate. The writer is Associate Professor in the Economics & Public Policy Area at IIM Ranchi. Views are personal Published on August 25, 2026