Управляющий активами призвал инвесторов готовиться к рыночному спаду, несмотря на двузначную доходность

Money manager Ryan Bushell is happy to talk about the double-digit returns he’s earned for his clients in recent years, with one caveat. “It’s not normal,” he says. “And we should be prepared for a downturn.” The chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Toronto-based Newhaven Asset Management Inc. isn’t a pessimist, but more a realist about the market ups and downs that are part of long-term investing. “Just because people cry wolf doesn’t mean the wolf doesn’t actually come,” Mr. Bushell says, noting the last major economic downturn outside of the 2020 pandemic was the 2008-09 global financial crisis, which was one of the most prolonged recessions in history. But as it’s almost impossible to predict when the next major market drop might come, Mr. Bushell’s investment strategy is to hold defensive stocks he believes can withstand various economic cycles. His focus is on dividend-paying Canadian companies in sectors such as utilities, infrastructure, telecommunications, energy and financial services. “We’re just trying to make sure people can depend on something in a world that’s getting less dependable – and allows them to live out their lives the way they would like to,” says Mr. Bushell, whose firm oversees more than $500-million in assets. The strategy has returned 19.8 per cent so far this year and 32.3 per cent over the past 12 months. His three-year annualized return is 20.8 per cent and his five-year annualized return is 13.5 per cent. The performance is based on total returns, net of fees, as of July 31. The Globe spoke with Mr. Bushell recently about what he’s been buying and selling: Name three stocks you’ve been buying recently and why. Telus Corp. T-T, the Vancouver-based telecom company, is a stock we’ve held for several years and have been adding to recently, after the stock dropped following the larger-than-expected dividend cut. The company also lowered its guidance for the year under new CEO Victor Dodig [who joined the company on May 1 and officially took over the job on July 1]. In my career to date, I’ve seen very few people who can turn around a company the size of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce [at which Mr. Dodig was CEO from 2014 until 2025]. Of course, I’m a little frustrated that Telus cut the dividend as much as it did, but I understand why it happened. To us, Telus is a company that’s essentially in an oligopoly – it doesn’t have a ton of competition – and supplies infrastructure that’s not going to be disrupted. I’m excited about the opportunity. Given the new management team it has, how can you not buy more at these levels? We may even double our position to 5 per cent from 2.5 per cent in the near term. Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU-T, the Calgary-based natural gas producer, is a stock we started buying almost immediately after it was announced in April that one of our other holdings in the sector, Arc Resources Ltd. ARX-T, was being taken over by Shell PLC SHEL-N. Tourmaline’s stock has been a bit volatile lately, but in the longer term it has a strong, heavily invested management team, with CEO Mike Rose leading the way. We want to be invested in Canadian natural gas. There’s a compelling opportunity right now to supply LNG on a larger scale and we want to participate in that. Even before the war in the Middle East, we were becoming more positive on Canadian natural gas, given the growing demand for power as part of the AI build-out. Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM-T, the Toronto-based miner with operations in Canada, Mexico, Finland and Australia, is a stock we’ve been adding to after trimming it earlier last year. The stock has dropped from its high [close to $350 a share] in February. We’ve been buying it below $230. I’m not a big gold investor, but I like having some exposure to the sector as a defensive position to guard against currency devaluation. I prefer to own a gold company versus a bullion ETF backed by derivative contracts to maintain exposure to physical gold without paying for storage. We like Agnico because most of its operations are in safer, less politically risky jurisdictions such as Canada. It has a decent yield for a gold company, and its dividend has increased over time. It’s the only gold position we own at this time. Name a stock or sector you recently sold. We’ve been trimming Canadian bank stocks when we get a chance. Our biggest bank positions right now are in Royal Bank of Canada RY-T and Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T. We have smaller positions in CIBC CM-T and Bank of Nova Scotia BNS-T. I just don’t see the conditions that justify record-high valuations for Canadian banks and the significant premium to U.S. banks. We’re not negative on the banks – we’re not actively selling them to buy other stocks – but whenever a cash withdrawal request comes in, that’s where we take it from. This interview has been edited and condensed.