Экономист Дэвид Розенберг запускает новый фонд с целью сохранения капитала и получения стабильной прибыли

Despite a reputation as a permanent market bear, David Rosenberg, the economist and founder of Rosenberg Research, has never shorted a stock. In fact, the Rosie Model Portfolio, an assemblage of ETFs based on his firm’s highest-conviction ideas, has returned more than 60 per cent since its inception in February, 2023. The Corton Rosenberg Global Macro Fund, which launches Wednesday on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker ROSY and the U.S. dollar-denominated ROSY.U, is designed to bring the model portfolio to a broader market, with a 0.8 per cent annual management fee. The exchange-traded fund is actively managed and advised by Corton Capital Inc., a Toronto-based investment fund manager, using Mr. Rosenberg’s research and services through a new venture, Rosenberg Capital Advisory (RCA). The Globe and Mail spoke with Mr. Rosenberg and David Jarvis, founder and principal at Corton Capital. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Why does the world need another ETF, and why is this one different? Jarvis: I’ve been following David Rosenberg’s research for years and I’ve found myself to be a kindred spirit. I like his insights. I like how he thinks, and I’ve always found that, even though I may disagree with him on certain things, there is a significant, well-thought-out, reasoned, rational grain of truth behind his arguments. What makes this ETF unique is that we are in a position to work with him to take his research and translate it into an ETF where we can bring that to other people. Rosenberg: The Rosie Model Portfolio... is a critical ingredient into this whole process. And what makes this whole thing very unique to the Canadian marketplace is that it mirrors my existing client base. This is a multi-strategy global macro fund that invests across all four of the asset classes – fixed income, equities, commodities and currencies – and it’s global in nature. So it’s diversified across asset classes and geographies, but it’s concentrated among the top ideas and themes coming out of Rosenberg Research. This is classified as a low-to-medium-risk strategy and it means that we’re very mindful of keeping the beta, whether to the 60/40 (equity and fixed income portfolio) or the broad equity market low, and the Sharpe ratio high. The whole intent is to minimize drawdowns and minimize volatility in the portfolio. It’s interesting to hear you talk about the 60/40 portfolio given its poor performance in recent years. The prospectus also mentions a 60/40 target. Jarvis: If you take a look at the history of the 60/40, there were some systemic factors at play. Interest rates have been steadily dropping since Paul Volcker was head of the Fed, and every year we got a free bump in the capital appreciation of fixed income until interest rates went to zero. So I have argued, in conversations with investors, that in 2018, why would you want to have any form of significant exposure to fixed income when interest rates are zero? It’s not sustainable. And so a 60/40 portfolio did not make sense back then. We needed a reset, and that reset came in 2023 with interest rates getting back to more normalized levels. So right now, yes, you’ve seen some increases in the 10-year and 30-year (government bond yields), for example, down in the States, and we can argue whether or not the existing interest rates are appropriate, but right now you do have a base return, and you do have some flexibility in terms of what the Fed can actually do. So we’re in a more normalized environment. The one thing that I feel very comfortable with is, short of something unbelievably extraordinary, interest rates are not going back to zero. And when you’re in a normalized environment, I think it’s now appropriate to take a look at a 60/40 portfolio. Now, do we have an inflation problem? I think so. Ask anyone who’s gone to the store, bought groceries. We’re struggling to figure out how to deal with some of the core inflation in most OECD countries, but at the end of the day, fixed income can be and should be a relevant component of anyone’s portfolio at this point. Rosenberg: Most ETFs that are launched are there to swing for the fences. This does not swing for the fences. We’re happy to bunt for singles and hit the odd double, but it is aimed not to strike out. So, capital preservation is a critical ethos in the strategy. You go tell me other ETFs that have that as their mission statement, OK? Not too many. How will Rosenberg Research and the Rosie Model Portfolio actually feed into day-to-day fund management? Jarvis: Just as David Rosenberg’s research inspired the Rosie model, his research is going to inspire what we do in the ETF. We have regular conversations. We have a special relationship. We have unlimited access to David, for example. Because I’ve been reading his stuff for years, I actually feel quite comfortable in terms of how he thinks and how he’s approaching problems. And so what we will do is continue that: “OK, I want to hear your reason why you want to have more exposure to alternative energy sources,” for example. And I will listen to it, I will read his research, and we’ll discuss it and go, “OK, I see the validity of that argument.” And then my job will be to figure out what is the best way to express that view or agreement within the ETF itself. What’s the goal for this strategy overall? Rosenberg: The strategy is aimed at generating absolute positive returns. I think we’re very happy with high single digits annually over a market cycle. And it is – I always hate to use the term, ‘it’s a sleep at night portfolio’ because it’s not cash, you know. There’s risk involved. But it’s risk that I think we know how to manage and know how to calculate. And again, you go find other ETFs out there where capital preservation is the underlying motivation. So yes, there’s a dearth in Canada, in particular, of ETFs with the characteristics that ROSY has. It is unique and it is differentiated in the Canadian marketplace.