Численность стада эллов в Джексон-Хоул сократится вдвое за 20 лет из-за болезни и нехватки кормов

Jackson Elk Herd numbers are projected to halve in the next 20 years, regardless of how wildlife managers wrangle the wapiti. That’s according to U.S. Geological Survey research released as part of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s draft updated management plan for the National Elk Refuge released on Friday. The Jackson Elk Herd is expected to decline whether the refuge continues to feed elk or not, according to the plan. Feeding elk supports a larger population than could be sustained on naturally available food alone, so pulling the alfalfa plug would lead the population to contract. But at the same time, feeding — which keeps elk in close quarters — increases the spread of chronic wasting disease, an always-fatal, highly transmissible neurological disease that causes ungulates to become thin, disoriented, drooly and socially isolated. The disease was first detected in the herd in 2020, in a hunter-harvested cow elk in Grand Teton National Park, and then found in two elk on the refuge last winter. Researchers predict that CWD will result in a “high mortality” of elk, with the decline beginning once prevalence of the illness hits 7%. A spokesperson for the Fish and Wildlife Service did not respond to a request for comment by press time. A spokesperson for the National Elk Refuge did not respond to multiple requests for comment by press time. The Wyoming Game and Fish Department manages the herd for an 11,000-animal objective, set by the Wyoming Game and Fish Commission. According to the Geological Survey’s modeling, the population will decline to about 5,000 animals over 20 years with continued feeding. The models indicate that the population will decline to just under 7,000 animals with no feeding and 6,000 animals with reduced feeding, which is what the Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed for management of the refuge going forward. In the shorter term, with continued feeding, the population will remain higher than all other alternatives for the next decade, according to data included in an appendix to the plan. Feeding is the “crux” of the updated plan, according to the draft. As part of the environmental analysis, the Fish and Wildlife Service explored two alternatives that would end feeding within five to seven years, but went with an alternative to reduce reliance on feed and reduce the number of elk wintering on the refuge to 5,000 animals. That is the same objective as the 2007 plan, which the new document will replace. “A lower elk population is more in balance with available habitat and will be more sustainable in the future.” — U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Refuge managers will reduce the number of elk, in coordination with Game and Fish, by increasing hunter pressure on “short-distance migrant” elk that summer on the West Bank and in the southern reaches of Teton park. That effort is underway. If hunting pressure is not able to decrease the short-distance migrant population, wildlife managers could use fertility control, culling and other means to decrease the population, according to the draft plan. Wildlife managers also will stop feeding elk two weeks earlier, to decrease disease transmission on the feedground. With supplemental feeding, elk grow in numbers and densities “well in excess of carrying capacity,” according to the draft. “It’s important to understand that a decline in the current elk herd may not be a negative long-term outcome,” wildlife managers wrote in the plan. “A lower elk population is more in balance with available habitat and will be more sustainable in the future.” Wildlife managers have struggled to reduce the spread of brucellosis on feedgrounds, according to the document. “High animal concentrations have created an unnatural situation that has contributed to an increased risk for potentially major outbreaks of exotic diseases, which is demonstrated in the high level of brucellosis in the elk and bison herds,” managers wrote. To some environmental advocates, the plan to continue feeding appears at odds with the science included in the document. “It’s really unfortunate to see the very good and real science that is being included in these drafts and being studied within the federal government,” said Kelsey Yarzab, acting director of the Sierra Club’s Wyoming chapter. “It seems hypocritical to me to lay out the very real consequences and then turn around and say actually, hold up, screw the science.” Outfitters, one of the primary constituencies in favor of feedgrounds, are less convinced by the grim forecast. Elk are “going to congregate somewhere because they’re a gregarious animal, whether that’s on the refuge, up the Gros Ventres or somewhere else,” said Dustin Stetter, president of the Wyoming Outfitters and Guides Association. “Without feeding you’re going to see that herd of elk dissipate and disappear,” he added. “It’s critical that we feed those elk.”