Дефицит бюджета Анголы более чем в четыре раза вырос на фоне роста цен на нефть

Angola’s Deficit More Than Quadrupled While Oil Prices Were Rising ANGOLA · PUBLIC FINANCE Key Facts —The deficit: The net lending and borrowing balance went from minus 925.8 billion kwanzas in the first half of 2025 to minus 3,943.8 billion in the first half of 2026. —The percentage: The finance ministry’s own table prints the change as 326.0%, a rise of 3,018 billion kwanzas. The deficit did not triple; it more than quadrupled. —In dollars: About US$4.32 billion, at the reference rate of 912.80 kwanzas to the dollar on 24 August 2026. —The scissors: Revenue rose 1.5% to 10,444.1 billion kwanzas while expenditure rose 28.2% to 14,387.9 billion. —Fuel: Fuel subsidies rose 56.0%, or 621.3 billion kwanzas, to 1,730.4 billion, the fastest-growing major line. —Oil did help: Brent averaged US$91.50 a barrel in the first half of 2026 against US$72.03 a year earlier, and Angolan crude averaged US$101.89 in the second quarter. —As a share of output: The deficit reached 5.5% of gross domestic product, against 1.4% a year earlier. The Angola fiscal deficit reached 3,943.8 billion kwanzas in the first half of 2026, about US$4.3 billion. The finance ministry prints the rise as 326% in its own statistical bulletin. It happened in a half-year when oil prices were 27% higher than the year before. The number, from the government’s own table The source is the Ministry of Finance’s own bulletin on government operations, the Boletim Estatístico das Operações do Governo. The second-quarter 2026 edition was published on 14 August. Its table of government operations shows the balance at minus 925.8 billion kwanzas in the first half of 2025. A year later it stood at minus 3,943.8 billion. The difference is 3,018 billion kwanzas, and the ministry prints the percentage change itself: 326.0%. That is a deficit multiplied by 4.26, not tripled. Expansão, Luanda’s business paper, reported the rise as 259% on 24 August. It used its own calculation from a base of 1.1 trillion kwanzas. That base does not appear anywhere in the current ministry table. Revenue barely moved and spending ran Revenue rose 1.5%, from 10,293.6 billion kwanzas to 10,444.1 billion. Expenditure rose 28.2%, from 11,219.5 billion to 14,387.9 billion. Those two figures reconcile exactly to the deficit, which is a useful check on the arithmetic. Subtracting one from the other gives 3,943.8 billion precisely. Underneath, the composition is worse than the headline. The primary deficit, excluding 2,688.2 billion kwanzas of debt interest, is about 1.3 trillion kwanzas. The non-oil primary deficit reached 7.7 trillion kwanzas, up 3.3 trillion from 4.4 trillion. That is the measure of how far the state is from paying for itself without crude. Where the money went Goods and services rose 54.1%, or 1,378 billion kwanzas, to 3,927.5 billion. Fuel subsidies rose 56.0%, or 621.3 billion, to 1,730.4 billion. The subsidy line deserves emphasis because it is precisely the item the International Monetary Fund has pressed Luanda to cut. Its most recent Article IV report was approved by the Board on 1 May 2026. It flagged 2025 fiscal slippage driven by capital spending and fuel subsidy costs. Debt interest added 320.9 billion kwanzas and public wages 262.6 billion, each up 13.6%. Investment in non-financial assets rose 15.0%, or 403.2 billion. One line moved the other way, sharply. Acquisition of financial assets fell 87.7%, from 1,243.4 billion kwanzas to 152.8 billion. The Angola fiscal deficit widened with the oil price rising This is what makes the half-year alarming rather than merely bad. Brent averaged US$91.50 a barrel in the first half of 2026. That is 27.0% above the US$72.03 of the same period in 2025. Angolan crude did even better in the second quarter. It averaged US$101.89 a barrel, up 21.9% year on year. Production rose 3.49%, and exported barrels climbed 2.3%. Total tax receipts rose 782.6 billion kwanzas to 5,282.7 billion, of which oil taxes specifically contributed 295.6 billion, rising to 1,896.2 billion. The ministry attributes the price move to supply constraints and heightened geopolitical risk, with particular emphasis on disturbances in the Middle East. Its own summary is blunt: the result reflects public revenue growing more slowly than total expenditure. What this does to Angolan credit Angola is a repeat hard-currency borrower, and the half-year runs against what its own rating agency expected. Fitch affirmed Angola at B- with a stable outlook on 8 May 2026. It forecast the deficit would narrow, with the primary balance returning to surplus. The deficit reached 5.5% of GDP in the half, versus 1.4% a year earlier. The primary balance is 1.3 trillion kwanzas in the red. The financing side is running hot. Amortisations in the half reached 6.9 trillion kwanzas, up 58.2%. Disbursements hit 12.5 trillion, up 94.7%, the ministry says. The ministry records a US$4 billion Eurobond programme, including a dual-tranche issue in March. It also notes a partial buyback of the 2028s. Chinese exposure remains material and only partly visible. The ministry states that 28.7% of external amortisations, some 409.3 billion kwanzas, went on oil-collateralised debt, mainly to China Development Bank. There is no fund programme sitting behind any of this. Angola has been outside an International Monetary Fund arrangement since its facility ended in 2021, and none has been announced since. More: Angola news in English, every day from The Rio Times. Frequently Asked Questions How big is the Angola fiscal deficit? It reached 3,943.8 billion kwanzas in the first half of 2026, about US$4.3 billion. That compares with 925.8 billion in the same period of 2025. Did the deficit really triple? It more than quadrupled, and the finance ministry’s own table prints the change as 326.0%, a factor of 4.26. A figure of 259% reported locally rests on a base that does not appear in the current table. Why did it widen when oil prices rose? Because spending rose far faster than revenue. Revenue grew 1.5% while expenditure grew 28.2%, led by goods and services up 54.1% and fuel subsidies up 56.0%. What were oil prices in the period? Brent averaged US$91.50 a barrel in the first half of 2026 against US$72.03 a year earlier. Angolan crude averaged US$101.89 in the second quarter, up 21.9%. What does it mean for Angolan bonds? The half-year runs against Fitch’s May 2026 forecast of a narrowing deficit and a return to primary surplus. Fitch rates Angola B- with a stable outlook. Connected Coverage For more on Angola’s economy, read our report on the 23-day outage at the country’s biggest phone network. Angola’s oil-collateralised borrowing is part of our continuing coverage of Africa: The New Scramble. This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error LatAm Markets: Live Signals → — real-time movers, turnover leaders and FX across Latin America. Read More from The Rio Times