Финансовый надзор Кюрасао предупреждает о скрытых рисках бюджета 2027 года

A projected surplus of XCG 66 million will undoubtedly be presented as evidence that Curaçao is moving in the right direction financially. But from Parliament’s oversight perspective, that is precisely where the real assessment should begin. The recent advice from the Board of Financial Supervision (Cft) shows that important uncertainties and structural risks remain behind this seemingly healthy result. The Cft concludes that the draft 2027 budget appears, for now, to comply with the central budgetary standard, but at the same time stresses that the projected result is surrounded by uncertainties. The question, therefore, is not simply whether the budget balances, but how solid the foundation beneath that surplus actually is. XCG 66 million surplus, but XCG 82 million in new revenue remains uncertain The government expects to collect XCG 82 million in 2027 through the planned tourist entry tax. However, the Cft notes that the necessary legislative process has not yet been completed and that there is insufficient clarity about its operational implementation. If the tax is not introduced on time, the projected surplus will come under pressure. This does not automatically mean that Curaçao would run a deficit without the tax. It does mean that a substantial part of the government's projected financial room depends on new revenue for which the legal and operational framework was not yet fully in place when the Cft issued its advice. That requires more than a budget estimate. It requires a credible fallback plan in case the revenue arrives later than expected or falls short of projections. The question is therefore not only how much the government expects to collect, but how certain those revenues are and what concrete alternatives are available if they do not materialize. CMC: A financial risk that must first be made visible Even more fundamental is the financial position of the Curaçao Medical Center (CMC). The Cft notes that the draft budget contains no new information about a structural solution to CMC's financial problems. There is also insufficient insight into the hospital's current financial situation and the financial consequences of the proposed solution. As a result, the Cft cannot determine whether those consequences have been fully and correctly incorporated into the budget or what financial risks could ultimately remain with the Country of Curaçao. That is not a minor detail. The Cft has even indicated that if the complete structural solution, including its financial consequences, is not incorporated into the budget, it may consider informing the Kingdom Council of Ministers. Parliament should therefore not accept financial uncertainty being treated as though it does not exist. A risk does not disappear simply because it has not yet been fully quantified. It should be made visible before it becomes a larger problem. XCG 190 million in borrowing: Where is the overall strategy? Curaçao is budgeting XCG 221 million in investments for 2027, of which XCG 190 million is expected to be financed through new borrowing. At the same time, the government wants to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio from approximately 61 percent to 55 percent within three to five years. Investment is necessary, and borrowing can be responsible. But that requires a coherent strategy. According to the Cft, such an approach is still lacking. There is no multi-year investment plan or comprehensive debt-management strategy showing how the government intends to balance investments, repayments, new borrowing and the use of available liquidity. That strategy must also take into account the XCG 370 million bond loan that matures in 2030. Parliament should therefore look beyond whether Curaçao technically has the ability to borrow. Which investments are essential? Which projects can demonstrate economic or social returns? Which investments could be financed from Curaçao's own resources? And how does taking on new debt fit with the government's stated objective of reducing the debt ratio? Those are political choices, and Parliament must have sufficient information to scrutinize them. The real test comes in 2030 Anyone looking exclusively at 2027 risks missing one of the most important signals in the multi-year budget. The projected ordinary-service balances are XCG 66 million in 2027, XCG 94 million in 2028, XCG 55 million in 2029 and only XCG 16 million in 2030. In other words, the government's financial room narrows considerably as 2030 approaches. At the same time, structural obligations are increasing. A deficit in the SVB stabilization fund is expected from 2029. Based on current projections, the Country would have to contribute XCG 48 million to the fund in 2029 and XCG 129 million in 2030. The Cft is therefore urging the government to move forward with reforms in healthcare and social security to reduce this structural financial pressure. On top of that comes the XCG 370 million bond loan maturing in 2030. The relevant question is therefore not simply whether the 2027 budget balances. The question is whether the financial decisions being made today will still be sustainable in 2030. Higher spending should produce better results Government expenditure also deserves close political scrutiny. Total expenses are projected to increase by XCG 154 million in 2027, or approximately 8 percent compared with the approved 2026 budget. Spending on goods and services alone is expected to increase from XCG 310 million to XCG 352 million, an increase of approximately 14 percent. The Cft considers this growth concerning, particularly because Curaçao previously indicated that it was working toward a more efficient government in which operational expenses should eventually decline. The relevant question is therefore not simply why the government is spending more. It is what measurable public value Curaçao receives in return. Increasing government expenditure should not be an objective in itself. Better public services, stronger implementation capacity and demonstrable social results should be the objective. New borrowing while interest burden standard cannot be formally tested Another issue deserves particular attention. The Cft still cannot formally assess whether Curaçao complies with the statutory interest burden standard because the necessary information about the collective sector remains incomplete. Final reports covering expenditures, revenues, deficits and debts for 2023, 2024 and 2025 are still unavailable. At the same time, Curaçao intends to borrow another XCG 190 million in 2027. That demands maximum transparency. When the Country takes on new financial obligations, the information on which supervision and political decision-making are based should be complete, current and verifiable. Sound financial governance begins with reliable information. A better budget, but not yet a complete financial policy A credible assessment should also acknowledge what the Cft views positively. According to the financial supervisor, the quality of Curaçao's budget has improved again. Estimates are well substantiated, while changes compared with the previous budget year are adequately explained. That is progress. But a technically better budget does not automatically guarantee long-term financial sustainability. The parliamentary debate on the 2027 budget should therefore not be reduced to whether the government can present a positive balance. Parliament needs to know how certain the projected revenues are, which risks have not yet been fully incorporated, how the debt will be managed, how future obligations will be financed and what results Curaçao will receive in exchange for growing government expenditure. The government does not deserve a blank check simply because the budget balances on paper. Parliament's responsibility is not to applaud a positive balance, but to determine whether the policies behind that balance actually make Curaçao financially stronger. XCG 66 million on paper is a positive result. It is not, by itself, proof of sound financial policy. Curaçao needs more than a balanced budget. It needs financial policies that are responsible today and sustainable tomorrow. Drs. Luigi Faneyte, MSc, CFE, CICA, CCS Economist, financial expert and PAR parliamentary staff member