Тарифы и конфликт в Иране создают неопределенность на рынках пластика и металлов

Editor’s note: This story is part of a series highlighting takeaways from the Supply Chain Outlook event hosted by Packaging Dive, Supply Chain Dive, Manufacturing Dive and Trucking Dive. Register here to watch a replay of the event. Markets for virgin and recycled plastic and metal commodities are reflecting the effects from ongoing tariff pressures and the Iran conflict. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is up in the air, adding to uncertainty, but a renegotiation could create opportunities for stronger trade relationships. Experts from the plastics and metals industries offered their views on these major global influences during a commodity market session at the “Supply Chain Outlook: Trends and Risks to Watch in 2026” virtual event on Wednesday. Here are some key takeaways from the event. Canmakers face pressure from Section 232 tariffs a year later Section 232 aluminum and steel tariffs, which have been in place since 2018, increased from 25% to 50% in 2025. That has caused “unavoidable cost increases” for U.S. can manufacturers since then, said Scott Breen, president of the Can Manufacturers Institute. Though aluminum beverage cans are mainly made of recycled content, they still need some primary aluminum, which is mostly imported from Canada. With higher tariffs, some Canadian producers are shifting their sales to other markets like Europe, Breen said. Because of that, U.S. producers of semi-fabricated products like can sheet had to source more aluminum from elsewhere, including states in the Persian Gulf region. In 2025, countries in that Gulf region made up about 21% of primary aluminum imports, and 13% being semi-fabricated imports. “That’s up significantly from 2024, basically at or near record levels,” he said, citing data from the Aluminum Association. Tariffs are affecting steel prices for food cans as well, he said. The U.S. imports about 80% of tinplate steel used to make food cans, meaning that material faces significant tariff exposures. U.S. steel producers aren’t investing much in tinplate production — despite the 50% tariff — because only about 1% of total steel output goes into steel packaging, and tinplate is “a niche product,” Breen said. That means these higher input costs are being passed down, first to food and beverage producers and then to consumers, he said. Between June 2025 and today, beverage prices are up between 2% and 3%, he said, while canned fruits and vegetables are up about 5%, according to Consumer Price Index data. Canned food prices are rising more than frozen and fresh food prices, an indication that Section 232 tariffs are making a specific impact on the industry, Breen said. CMI is working to promote a range of trade relief actions, including advocating for lowering tariffs on tin-plated steel and primary aluminum and proposing equivalent tariffs on imported filled food cans that currently aren’t facing the same cost pressures, he said. Plastics hang in limbo due to tariff uncertainty Plastics are also facing some tariff pressures, but so far they’re not as acute as what some in the metals industry have been feeling, said Perc Pineda, chief economist at the Plastics Industry Association. “There have been upward price pressures to some extent. But they have been uneven across the board” rather than major plastics price spikes, Pineda said. Long-standing Section 301 tariffs on China continue to influence some imports, he said. For example, imports of plastic packaging from China, such as polyethylene sacks and bags, were down about 7.2% between January and May compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, plastic equipment manufacturers have temporary relief from Section 232 tariffs until December 2027, meaning companies considering equipment investments are facing planning uncertainties, he said. Another factor driving uncertainty is a proposal to add 10% to 12.5% tariffs on imports from about 60 countries that do not have forced labor prohibitions when they import products, Pineda said. “There’s still this lack of clarity of how the U.S. trade and tariff policy is actually going to evolve in the coming months,” he said. Conflict with Iran has disrupted global supply and prices for plastic, metals Ongoing conflicts in Iran are also affecting commodities for plastics and metals, speakers said. In March, Iranian missiles hit two top aluminum producers in the Gulf region, disrupting global supply chains, tightening supply and sharply raising prices, Breen said. Then, just in the past month, the market saw a “very steep decline in price,” he added, because of news indicating the U.S. and Iran might agree to a ceasefire and the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could open back up for trade, allowing commodities to be exported out of the Gulf region. At the same time, parts of Asia, including China, have been ramping up aluminum production “because they've seen an opportunity there, so supply has been less tight,” he said. In recent days, however, resolution to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has looked less optimistic. “I could see the price going back up, particularly as the Iran situation becomes more hostile again,” Breen said. For plastics, conflict in Iran has been uneven across the industry, but is showing up partly through resin prices, Pineda said. Citing Producer Price Index numbers by commodity for resins, prices went up about 6% in April and another 14% in May, he said. “If you look at the United States, one of our competitive advantages is that our resin production is based on natural gas, so we have an industry that’s well supplied,” Pineda said. At the same time, resin is priced globally, so disturbances in the global energy market — such as crude oil prices affected by conflict in Iran — offer insight into how prices will fare in the future, he said. Pineda hasn’t seen evidence that the conflict has prompted demand for more virgin resins over recycled resin, but he said U.S. exports of recyclable materials has increased, which he sees as an indication that there’s more focus on domestic recycling and conversion. Envisioning a better USMCA agreement The U.S. government announced this month that it would not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement in its current form. That creates both uncertainty for the market and optimism that a new version of the USMCA could spur better trade opportunities for plastics and metal commodities, speakers said. “There is every rhyme and reason that we should continue to have this trade agreement,” Pineda said, noting that Mexico is the biggest export market for the U.S. plastics industry, and Canada is the second largest. A new USMCA could strengthen material flows between the three countries “while we collectively focus on the real problem, which is China and the overcapacity that they have,” particularly for excess steel, Breen said. At the same time, the U.S., Mexico and Canada face “stiff competition” with the European trading bloc and a recently created Asian trading bloc that includes 15 countries such as China, Japan and Korea, Pineda added. That Asian trade bloc “is actually about 30% of global trade, and so that’s something that the United States, Canada and Mexico should consider moving forward in terms of what the next free trade agreement would look like.”