АМРО повысил прогноз роста экономики Таиланда до 2,4% благодаря инвестициям и экспорту технологий

Thailand & Asia | 8 September 2026 AMRO raises Thailand’s outlook as investment and technology exports drive growth NEW The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) says Thailand’s economy has performed better than expected despite the Middle East energy shock, supported by private investment, fiscal spending and technology-related exports. AMRO projects 2.4% growth in both 2026 and 2027, but warns that the recovery remains uneven, with traditional industries and SMEs lagging the technology-led sectors. ( Amro Asia ) Key figures / indicators: GDP growth 2.4% in 2026 and 2027; inflation projected at 1.6% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027; FDI-backed digital infrastructure and electronics investment strengthened in H1. Why it matters: AMRO’s assessment reinforces the view that Thailand’s next growth phase will depend heavily on converting the current investment and AI-export cycle into broader productivity, employment and income gains. The main downside risks are a slowdown in global AI demand, weak household incomes, trade shocks and renewed energy or weather disruptions. Thai stocks surge as foreign investors return to the market NEW Thailand’s SET Index jumped 23.24 points, or 1.46%, to 1,618.82 on Monday, supported by renewed foreign buying and strong demand for technology-linked shares. Foreign investors were net buyers of THB2.77 billion, while trading value reached THB60.08 billion, with DELTA and large energy and telecommunications stocks among the main contributors. Key figures / indicators: SET 1,618.82, + 1.46%; trading value THB60.08bn; foreign net buying THB2.77bn. Why it matters: The rally suggests international investors are becoming more constructive on Thai assets as the global AI and technology cycle supports regional equities. The strength of foreign flows will be an important test of whether Thailand can sustain its recent market recovery despite domestic political and macroeconomic risks. Money & Banking — Thai stocks rise on AI and data-centre optimism Thailand strengthens data-centre oversight as AI infrastructure boom accelerates NEW Thailand is tightening its framework for data-centre investment, with the government strengthening the Data Center Business Policy Committee and working toward clearer rules covering electricity, water, land use, cybersecurity, green power and economic benefits. Authorities are reviewing a pipeline of 166 projects, including 49 under construction and 117 awaiting approval, as the country seeks to balance rapid investment with infrastructure constraints. ( Money & Banking Magazine ) Key figures / indicators: 166 projects affected; 49 under construction; 117 awaiting approval; government targeting a clearer national framework within about one month. Why it matters: The policy review is becoming a major test of Thailand’s ability to remain competitive against Malaysia, Indonesia and other regional digital hubs. Clearer rules could improve long-term investment quality, but delays or uncertainty could redirect hyperscale and AI infrastructure capital elsewhere in ASEAN. Thailand data-centre policy update China’s foreign-exchange reserves rise to $3.44 trillion NEW China’s foreign-exchange reserves increased to US$3.438 trillion in August, from US$3.419 trillion in July, beating the US$3.425 trillion consensus forecast in a Reuters poll. The increase came as the US dollar weakened and the yuan strengthened, with the yuan gaining 0.49% against the dollar during the month. ( Reuters ) Key figures / indicators: FX reserves US$3.438tn; July US$3.419tn; market forecast US$3.425tn; yuan + 0.49% in August. Why it matters: The larger reserve buffer gives Beijing substantial capacity to manage currency volatility and external financial shocks. For Thailand and other Asian economies, the combination of a firmer yuan and weaker dollar can influence regional exchange rates, capital flows and the competitiveness of exports. Reuters — China’s August foreign-exchange reserves Asian chip rally pushes Seoul and Tokyo sharply higher NEW Asian technology shares surged on Monday as investors continued to price strong demand for AI-related chips and memory products. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 4.6%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.1% and China’s CSI 300 added 0.6%; Samsung Electronics climbed 5.7% and SK Hynix 8.3%. ( Barron’s ) Key figures / indicators: KOSPI +4.6%; Nikkei +2.1%; CSI 300 +0.6%; Samsung +5.7%; SK Hynix +8.3%. Why it matters: The rally reinforces the strength of the AI hardware cycle that is already supporting Thailand’s electronics exports and data-centre investment. At the same time, Thailand risks missing part of the upside unless it attracts more semiconductor, advanced-electronics and AI supply-chain activity beyond traditional assembly. AP — Asian markets rally on chip demand Thailand–Asia market signal Thailand is entering the week with a stronger investment and market backdrop but a widening structural challenge. AMRO’s 2.4% growth outlook and Monday’s foreign-led SET rally show improving investor confidence, while the data-centre regulatory overhaul highlights the need to turn large-scale FDI into reliable infrastructure, skilled employment and domestic value creation. Across Asia, the AI investment cycle remains the dominant market driver. Seoul’s semiconductor surge and China’s stronger reserve position provide a supportive external backdrop, but currency and energy risks remain important variables for Thailand as policymakers balance competitiveness, inflation and the cost of imported inputs.