Война в США и Иране обвалила поставки этиленхлорида в Индию на 73%

Ethylene dichloride (EDC) imports into India from the Middle East fell sharply in the first half of 2026 after the US-Iran war and the closure of the strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies from one of the country's key source regions. Middle East EDC flows into India totalled 49,144t between January and June 2026, according to Global Trade Tracker (GTT) data. India received Middle Eastern EDC only in the first quarter, with recent GTT data showing no imports since then. The figures may lag slightly because of the conflict, market participants said. The total was 73.1pc lower than in January-June 2025, when Middle Eastern EDC accounted for just over 51pc of India's total imports for the year. Lower Middle East supplies have opened the door for higher imports from northeast Asia, southeast Asia and western Europe so far in 2026, but these gains have done little to offset overall losses. EDC imports from northeast Asia into India rose from zero during the first half of 2025 to 10,498t so far this year, while volumes from southeast Asia rose by 40.4pc and those from western Europe by 48.1pc. Is Indian PVC production at risk? Lower Middle East EDC flows reflect the impact of US-Iran war, with producers in the region either continuing to operate at lower rates or idling some production lines to prevent EDC oversupply. Indian polyvinyl chloride (PVC) producers have therefore sourced EDC feedstock from alternative markets, with higher EDC requirements also exacerbated by the closure of a domestic EDC production unit in mid-July. Most EDC shipments into India are delivered on a contractual basis. Higher EDC prices across Asia-Pacific reflect rising feedstock ethylene costs and continued weakness in caustic soda prices, prompting electrochemical unit (ECU) operators to preserve ECU margins through the chlorine chain where possible. Increased EDC demand in southeast Asia and reduced US EDC export availability have also pushed prices higher in recent months. Argus assessed July EDC spot prices at $307-308/t cfr northeast Asia and $282-284/t cfr southeast Asia on 30 July, with recent indications pointing to higher prices so far in August. Argus will assess August EDC spot prices on 28 August. Concerns over lower Middle Eastern EDC flows into India have so far had a limited impact on Indian PVC production, as major importers secured alternative supplies. Indian PVC producers also reported little difficulty passing higher feedstock costs on to the local suspension PVC (s-PVC) market, especially since s-PVC import prices have remained above domestic levels because of higher freight costs. India remains a net importer of PVC, with recent data showing a substantial increase in PVC imports during the first half of 2026. But the continued closure of the strait of Hormuz could pose a short-term risk to Indian PVC producers if they are unable to secure sufficient feedstock supplies to maintain operating rates. This has led some market participants to consider potential changes in EDC trade flows, including increased offtake from western Europe and northeast Asia during the remainder of 2026.