ЮАР: доступное жилье превращается в прибыльный инвестиционный актив с устойчивым спросом

Affordable housing has become one of South Africa’s most compelling investment stories. While much of the public conversation still focuses on the country’s housing backlog and the social need for affordable homes, investors are increasingly looking at the sector through a different lens. They see resilient demand, reliable occupancy and an asset class that continues to perform even when other parts of the property market come under pressure. That shift helps explain why the market is no longer moving as one. Interest rates have eased from their peak, but not enough to materially improve affordability for many first-time buyers. As a result, ownership activity has remained steady instead of accelerating. Nedbank’s own affordable housing commercial loan book in this segment has grown around 8% since the start of 2026. While encouraging, it reflects resilience more than a broad recovery. The real story lies on the rental side, where developers are increasingly choosing to hold their stock rather than sell it when a building is complete. They are acquiring existing rental blocks and converting underused office space in city centres into homes close to where people actually work. This repeated shift across the market shows that affordable housing is no longer viewed primarily as a “for sale” only property transaction but increasingly as a long-term income-generating asset class. The move towards long-term ownership also reflects a practical reality. Purchasing a residential unit located two hours from work often costs a household more than renting a pricier one within reach of a job and reliable transport, because predictable monthly expenses — largely just rent and utilities — matter enormously to tenants who cannot absorb the additional costs of ownership. For developers holding stock over the long term, those outcomes are not simply desirable. They underpin the value of the investment itself. Institutional investors are reaching the same conclusion. South African pension funds have become considerably more active in affordable housing, reflecting growing confidence in the sector’s long-term fundamentals. That confidence is rooted partly in the sector’s return and demand fundamentals, but it was reinforced during the Covid-19 pandemic, when other property sectors came under pressure while residential proved comparatively defensive, which reinforces its reputation as a resilient asset class. South African pension funds have become considerably more active in affordable housing, reflecting growing confidence in the sector’s long-term fundamentals. Residential property has long been recognised internationally as a mature institutional asset class. South Africa is beginning to catch up. Development finance institutions have redirected portions of their capital towards food and energy security projects, creating space for local investors to play a larger role. Regulatory changes that allow pension funds to classify affordable housing as infrastructure have also strengthened the investment case. For banks and institutional lenders, this changes the conversation. The question is no longer simply whether affordable housing delivers a social outcome but whether it produces the predictable cash flows, occupancy levels and long-term resilience institutional investors expect from any other asset class. That is increasingly the lens through which transactions are evaluated and financed. Underlying that investment case is the scale of demand. South Africa’s housing shortage, put at around 2.3-million homes, remains the backdrop to all of this, and a recent 200-unit development in Somerset West attracted almost 14,000 applications in just a few months, a reminder of how deep that demand runs at every level of the market. Long-term ownership delivers lasting value only when it is matched by professional management. An owner who expects to hold a building for decades manages it differently to one planning to sell. Scale brings better procurement, faster repairs and consistent reinvestment, and that discipline shows up in how a building looks and functions years after it has opened, not just on the day it is handed over. Developers focused on long-term value creation typically invest in environmentally conscious developments, underscoring their commitment to sustainability and the efficient use of resources that will yield operating cost savings in the long run. Construction costs But none of this changes the reality that construction costs remain the biggest constraint. Material and oil price increases have pushed up development economics well beyond South Africa’s borders, with particularly sharp increases recorded in Kenya, prompting developers to rethink how projects are delivered. One practical response has been to move further along the value chain and procure materials in bulk, an approach already showing results elsewhere and now being considered here too. Solving the wider supply problem will still need policy, planning, land release and finance to move together. Affordable housing will always serve an important social purpose. Increasingly though, it is also proving itself to be a commercially compelling investment case. That matters because sustainable investment is ultimately what allows more homes to be built. The challenge now is ensuring that capital, planning and policy keep pace with demand. These questions will be part of the conversation at the International Housing Solutions Conference in September. The conference provides an opportunity for developers, investors, financiers and governments to focus on what comes next. • Mashifane is executive head of residential property finance at Nedbank Corporate & Investment Banking, and Wesselo is group MD of private equity real estate fund manager International Housing Solutions.