Исследование Университета Кейптауна: декарбонизация завода Sasol в Секунде грозит потерей 25 тыс. рабочих мест или экономическим кризисом

Story audio is generated using AI A study by University of Cape Town (UCT) researchers into Sasol’s prized Secunda plant, which converts coal, supplemented by limited natural gas, into synthetic liquid fuels and chemicals, has warned that decarbonising such a system could either entail a rapid shutdown or present a complex transition challenge. The academics Nosaibeh Nosrati-Ghods, Bryce McCall, Harro von Blottnitz, Bruno Merven, Imrah Kamedien, Joseph Masenda, and Andrew Marquard note that Sasol’s coal-to-liquids (CtL) complex in Secunda, which is responsible for about 12% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, illustrates tensions in the country’s just transition plans, where rapid or unplanned shutdown could impose substantial economic and energy security risks. “A rapid and unstructured transition away from the Secunda CtL operations could reduce South Africa’s GDP by R9.9bn, result in approximately 24,900 job losses, and increase reliance on imported liquid fuels,” the study reads. “If instead the transition is understood as a structured transformation pathway, this implies that existing assets are progressively reconfigured to align with long-term climate targets, including national net-zero emissions by mid-century.” The giant Secunda plant is Sasol’s biggest money-maker and biggest environmental headache, accounting for nearly 84% of its scope 1 and 2 carbon emissions. Sasol has over the years had several run-ins with environmentalists and authorities over its emissions, second only to Eskom. President Cyril Ramaphosa last week visited the plant alongside Sasol CEO Simon Baloyi, where the president hailed the facility and its contribution to South Africa’s industrial base. The Secunda complex’s construction commenced in 1976 and remains a jewel in South Africa’s industrial crown. It is the sole manufacturer of most of South Africa’s petrochemicals and plastic raw materials based on ethylene and propylene, as well as ammonia, for fertiliser and explosives. Economic research firm Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies (TIPS), established 30 years ago for industrial policy, has said generating the necessary green hydrogen to replace Secunda’s current production would demand 18,000MW of continuous renewable electricity, representing nearly 51% of South Africa’s entire current peak electricity demand. The capital expenditure required to construct such huge infrastructure is estimated to exceed R1-trillion. UCT examined three scenarios for Secunda’s just transition. The baseline, which pencils in no transition, reflects current operations under existing policies, including the legislated carbon tax and the phase-out of imported natural gas from Mozambique by 2034. Under this scenario, Secunda CtL operations continue under coal-based configurations, with units retired only when they fall below operational thresholds. The second scenario incorporates Sasol’s 2030 decarbonisation measures, including renewable electricity procurement, process-efficiency improvements, and product slate adjustments relative to 2017. The third scenario introduces a binding long-term emissions constraint, consistent with South Africa’s long-term emissions constraint (LTEC). Under this constraint, CtL capacity is maintained independently of age-based retirement, subject to system-wide optimisation. “Across all scenarios, technology adoption is determined endogenously through least-cost optimisation, without predefined commissioning schedules. Assets are retired when uneconomic or displaced by cost-competitive alternatives. “The three scenarios are designed to reflect increasing levels of policy stringency, defined as the degree of binding constraints imposed on the facility’s emissions and technology choices. “The baseline scenario represents the least stringent case, incorporating only the existing carbon tax trajectory and the confirmed phase-out of Mozambican gas imports, with no binding emissions ceiling.” Sasol has been subject to intense research by domestic and international researchers. A working paper by the School of Oriental and African Studies, a public research university in London, says decarbonisation is an existential challenge for Sasol but argues the group is well positioned to drive South Africa’s green hydrogen economy. Sasol has been in the hydrogen game for more than 70 years, but the hydrogen of the future — clean, green hydrogen — is still not mainstream and far from cheap to produce. Sasol has 3.5-million tonnes of grey hydrogen, used primarily in making ammonia, fertiliser and refining oil. Business Day