Автор прогнозов оценил свою точность в 75%: SpaceX отстала от графика, а ПК-рынок застрял в стагнации

In December of last year I made some predictions for 2019. So how did I do? Those predictions spanned science and technology and followed from things which were in the works in 2018. When it comes to space flight we were all perhaps a bit too optimistic in 2018 going into 2019. When it comes to technology we haven't seen a fundamental change to how most of us compute in a very long time. - Human space flight from American soil thanks to Space X but not on the time table they say. - I was wrong about Space X launching astronauts to the space station this year. Thanks to the massive explosion of a uncrewed...crewed dragon, during testing, after an otherwise uneventful mission to the ISS. - I was right about United Lunch Alliance and Boeing in particular lagging behind SpaceX. Were it not for that incident SpaceX will have already sent at least one crew to the ISS while Boeing was still testing. - - New Particles In “Old” Data. - There were some new Pentaquarks found in the data so this is correct in the sense of composite particles. - However, there were no new fundamental particles found. - No surprising finding of evidence of primordial gravitational waves by way of deep data analysis. - - Technology PC’s stagnate while mobile and data centers dominate. - Some will dispute this since thanks to AMD Ryzen we have seen noticeable performance gains. However, what we have not seen is the kind of sea change that one got going from 486 to Pentium or Pentium III to Athlon 64. Your five year old computer can run all the same software as a new one just not so fast. In the past your 80286 or 80386 was never going to run what your Pentium could, at all. It will be a long time before we see that kind of advancement. - Meanwhile mobile devices have diversified, became foldable, and more and more people do their computing in the cloud. - - No accepted theory of everything. - There has been no breakthrough data to show that String Theory or M Theory are the theory of everything. In fact scientist have started to come back to Earth. - No fixion particle was found. Which is not surprising since that is based on a web comic. That said had LHC found a SUSY particle that was in line with predictions for a Neutralino it would’ve been about the same. Theorist would’ve had a field day using it to explain everything. - I would say I was 60 to 75% accurate this year. Check back tomorrow and I will have predictions not for 2020 but for the new 20’s we are about to enter.