Переход на новые хладагенты: индустрия HVAC готовит к дефициту R-410A после 2029 года

There’s Plenty of R-410A to Be Found – For Now Current inventories are healthy, but future service needs will require more reclamation The HVAC industry’s transition from R-410A equipment to systems using lower-GWP A2L refrigerants is well underway. Most new residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems now use R-32 or R-454B, while almost all of the remaining R-410A equipment has moved through the distribution channel. Although the equipment transition has been fairly smooth, questions remain about the long-term availability of R-410A to service the existing installed base. Those concerns are likely to intensify ahead of the next major HFC production stepdown in 2029, when allowable production and consumption will fall to 30% of the baseline level. As a result, industry groups are closely watching R-410A inventories, pricing, and regional availability, while emphasizing the need to expand the supply of reclaimed refrigerant. Smooth Transition After years of preparation, the HVAC industry’s transition to lower-GWP equipment is now almost complete. As of June, HARDI distributors reported that A2L systems accounted for 99% of ducted equipment sales, leaving only a small amount of R-410A equipment still being sold. The transition is nearly as complete in the ductless market, where approximately 3% of equipment sales are still R-410A. HARDI also reported little meaningful regional variation, suggesting that adoption has progressed at a fairly consistent pace across the country. “Overall, it has been a smooth transition over the last 24 months,” said Alex Ayers, vice president of government affairs at HARDI. A2L UPTAKE: As of June, HARDI distributors reported that A2L systems accounted for 99% of ducted equipment sales. (Courtesy of HARDI) Samantha Slater, senior vice president of government affairs at AHRI, agreed, noting, “The transition has gone quite smoothly, in large part owing to the fact that this is the third transition over the past 30 or so years.” Supplies of A2L refrigerants have also returned to optimal levels, following “a brief supply hiccup last year,” she said. Looking for quick answers on air conditioning, heating and refrigeration topics? Try Ask ACHR NEWS, our new smart AI search tool. Ask ACHR NEWS That hiccup involved the shortage of aftermarket R-454B cylinders during the first half of 2025. While manufacturers generally had enough refrigerant to charge new equipment at the factory, distributors and contractors faced limited supplies for installation and service work. By the second half of the year, supplies of the new A2L refrigerant had returned to more normal levels. AHRI’s remaining concern is maintaining the pace of the transition amid efforts to change regulatory deadlines or HFC allocations. “We are working closely with our industry partners and our friends in government to ensure this process proceeds apace,” said Slater. Adequate Supplies Contractors servicing the millions of R-410A systems already installed should rest assured that for now, there is plenty of the legacy refrigerant available. Indeed, before the cooling season started, nearly 80% of HARDI distributors reported that their R-410A inventories were at or above target. “Of the 15% that reported below target, about three-quarters of those also reported that they hadn’t ordered yet, indicating it wasn’t an issue of availability, just timing of when we asked,” said Ayers. HEALTHY SUPPLY: Nearly 80% of HARDI distributors have reported that their R-410A inventories were at or above target. (Courtesy of HARDI) AHRI is hearing a similar message from the field. “The information we have from contractors and technicians is that there is ample supply to service existing systems, perhaps even at less cost than had been anticipated,” said Slater. Although production of new R-410A equipment ended on January 1, 2025, virgin R-410A continues to enter the market, primarily through imports and domestic blending using imported components, said Ayers. At the same time, the HFC phasedown is gradually reducing available supply, while the end of new R-410A equipment production is decreasing demand. Slater said manufacturers are not currently concerned about the availability of either A2L refrigerants or R-410A for service. She cautioned, however, that prices may rise as supplies are reduced. “It is a matter of simple economics that when demand outstrips supply, the price increases, and I think we can expect to see that happen as supplies of R-410A are reduced under this transition.” More Reclaim Although there are currently ample supplies of R-410A — in fact, Ayers described the market as having “a significant glut of virgin R-410A” — recovery and reclamation will need to increase in order to meet long-term service needs. “In 2029, the U.S. will be at 30% of the baseline supply of HFCs; much of that demand will be needed to fill new equipment, meaning service will rely on the remaining glut and reclaimed refrigerant,” said Ayers. “That means every pound vented today is a pound that cannot be used in the future to service equipment, especially when the commercial refrigeration sector will be using significantly more HFCs under the reconsideration rule than originally planned.” For now, distributors do not appear to be facing any broad shortages, and contractors should be able to obtain the R-410A they need. The supply picture after 2029, however, will depend on how much refrigerant is recovered from systems being replaced and returned for reclamation. Looking for a reprint of this article? From high-res PDFs to custom plaques, order your copy today!