Индия становится ключевым фактором сдерживания Китая в Тайваньском вопросе

India is the world's most populous nation, having surpassed China in 2023, and the gap continues to widen. China's demographics are upside down: its birthrate has collapsed, and it is burdened with an aging population. India's population, meanwhile, averages a decade younger than China's. The Republic of India currently has a population of 1.4 billion. At 1.27 million square miles, it is the seventh-largest nation and the world's largest democracy. Its GDP of $4+ trillion is now the world's sixth-largest and growing. Its GDP per capita is much higher than China's and grew at a healthy 7.6% in 2025, the envy of the world. Competing with China, India has become a major power in information technology, pharmaceuticals, space, electronics, semiconductors, and manufacturing. It lies between the Middle East and Southeast Asia, astride the northern Indian Ocean, giving it a critical position in global trade. Much of world trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, near India's Andaman and Nicobar Island chains. The map below demonstrates the importance of the islands and trade route. China's commerce particularly depends on sea lanes through the Indian Ocean for energy and international trade. To support this, China has developed or obtained facilities in Djibouti, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and various other Indian Ocean locations. Combined with China's Belt and Road Program, which has invested heavily in various Indian Ocean projects, these realities create tension and friction between the two nations. India refuses to join China's program and rightly resents Chinese interference in its Indian Ocean sphere of influence. This is especially true since the Belt and Road scheme functions as a bait-and-switch mechanism whereby China weasels its way into key locations around the globe, often impoverishing hospitable nations. In recent decades, the complicated history of India and China has continued to be marked by rivalry and conflict. Although attempts have been made at cooperation, mistrust keeps armed forces poised on the border for the next flare-up. The two countries do not agree on most of the 2,100-mile boundary in the Himalayan mountains. Tibet has exacerbated the dispute, with China conquering it in 1959. China deplores that India granted asylum to the Dalai Lama and a large Tibetan exile community. Since 1959, there have been frequent disputes along the border, including in 1962, 1967, 1975, 1986-87, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2022. These wars prompted India to reinforce its sovereignty by stationing thousands of troops along the border. The nation has restricted Chinese investment in India, banned the use of Chinese mobile applications in Indian territory, and improved roads, bridges, tunnels, and airfields. India has also allied with the United States, Japan, and Australia. India's foreign policy emphasizes a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific and strident pushback against China's fictional nine-dash line and claim to the South China Sea. India has clarified that relations with China will not become "normal" until peace and stability are restored along the border. In 2024, India and China reached an agreement, allowing for fragile peace. However, both countries still maintain forces and surveillance along the border. It doesn't help that China allied with Pakistan, supplying weapons. The bitter hatred between India and Pakistan goes back generations. India has historically accepted the "One China" policy but avoids using that terminology in public statements. Like many countries, India maintains a diplomatic and cultural presence in Taipei through the India-Taipei Association. Taiwan maintains the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center in New Delhi, with other offices in both Chennai and Mumbai, likely hoping to enlarge economic relations between the two countries. India-Taiwan trade is substantial, reaching $12.5 billion in 2025 and growing each year. India also aims to supplant China as a manufacturing location. Taiwan is investing ~$5 billion in India's semiconductor and electronics sectors. India is offering Taiwan a potential market, low labor costs, an engineering and software workforce, and even Indian government subsidies. India-Taiwan contacts have expanded with university exchanges, language programs, science cooperation, increased tourism, and scholarship incentives. If China attacked Taiwan, it would have to worry about India increasing pressure on the border. Any adventurism by China puts its position at risk. The Indian Army is more than a million strong in active-duty troops, and, due to frequent conflict and ties with the U.S., it is competent, especially in high-altitude warfare, mountain warfare, counterinsurgency, artillery, and long deployments in austere environments. India's defense budget is the fifth largest in the world. Also, India boasts a 150-ship Navy with two aircraft carriers, nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines, attack submarines, destroyers, frigates, and corvettes. Most of its Navy is in the Indian Ocean, a threat to Chinese trade. It also has U.S.-built P-8 maritime patrol aircraft and advanced anti-ship missiles. Its Navy is more familiar with operating in the Indian Ocean. Cooperation with the U.S., Japan, and Australia — the Quad alliance — provides high-quality maritime security and awareness, humanitarian assistance and relief, cybersecurity, infrastructure, counterterrorism coordination, Coast Guard cooperation, undersea cable security, port access, and disaster response. At the very least, during a Taiwan conflict, India could protect friendly ships, put pressure on Chinese energy routes, and supply the U.S. and our allies with maritime surveillance, intelligence, and logistics. India would join the world in condemning an attack or blockade on Taiwan and embargo trade with China to hamper its forces and economy. It would likely provide logistics support to nations defending Taiwan rather than direct support to Taiwan. Still, it might quietly collaborate with Taiwan through secure channels behind the scenes. In conclusion, India's critical location, fraught history with China, military strength, democratic values demonstrated through its ties to the Quad, and growing strength on the international stage make it a key factor in any plans the People's Republic of China has regarding Taiwan. There is no doubt China covets Taiwan. India could deter it from ever acting on those malign plans.