Тасмания теряет привлекательность: падение зарплат и рост цен на жилье тормозят рост населения

Is the 'Tassie trade-off' of lower pay still a good deal as cost-of-living bites? In short: Tasmania's labour market has been described as the least financially attractive in the country, with full-time average weekly earnings about $12,000 a year less than the average of other states. In the past, lower house prices and the Tasmanian lifestyle balanced out the state's fewer job opportunities and poorer pay, but that is changing. What's next? The state's aging workforce can free up job opportunities, allowing for faster career progression. The impact of artificial intelligence may also be less of a disruptor than in other states. Tasmania's lifestyle is generally slower and quieter compared with other Australian states. For most people, there are no long commutes to work or expensive tollways. And for many Tasmanians, nature is right on their doorstep. But on the flip side, job opportunities are limited, career progression can be slower, and the pay is often lower than in other states. It's known as the 'Tassie trade-off'. "It is the least financially attractive labour market in the country," Ryan Felsman, a senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank, said. Tasmania's full-time average weekly earnings are $1,821, about $12,000 a year below the average of other states. Smaller pay and fewer job opportunities, along with rising house prices, could be behind a recent slowdown in Tasmania's population growth, Mr Felsman said. Annual growth was 0.5 per cent in the year to December 2025, the lowest in the country. "The relationship between the labour market and population growth is strong," Mr Felsman said. "People are more likely to stay or relocate to Tasmania if they can see long-term career prospects." Choosing a tree change over career progression Kate Smyth, her husband and child moved to Tasmania from Queensland earlier this year. The family were seeking a lifestyle change rather than career opportunities. "We were right next to the fastest-growing suburb on the Gold Coast, so there were a lot of people, a lot of traffic, a lot of crime," Ms Smyth said. The family could not be happier with their decision to move to the Huon Valley. They are enjoying the local produce, cooking, gardening and spending time outside. "I am not used to seeing all these beautiful mountains," Ms Smyth's partner works as a labourer while she works remotely in a part-time marketing role based interstate. She said a similar position would be hard to find in Tasmania and career progression was no longer a priority for her. "It doesn't feel like a trade-off to me at all," she said "I don't want to spend my time in a cubicle on my computer." But Ms Smyth knows not everyone has the financial freedom to make the same choices. The family sold their Gold Coast home when prices were high, and by buying a more remote Tasmanian property, they are now mortgage-free. "Yes, we know that it's a privilege to be in that position, but we wanted to make the most of it," Deal gets worse since the pandemic Taking a lower-paid job in Tasmania was less of a trade-off before the pandemic, when Tasmanian house prices were significantly below those in most other states. Since then, house prices have risen, and the rental market is tight. "I believe that may have been why in our last spurt of economic growth we didn't get the interstate migration that we normally do, because our house prices and, in many cases, our rents were higher than many other places on the mainland," Paul Blacklow, a senior lecturer in economics at the University of Tasmania, said. Many Tasmanians and prospective Tasmanians have shared their thoughts about the trade-off on social media. Kelly: "We have actually been blown away at the difference in wages here, not $5 an hour, it's literally $20+/hour difference, which seems so crazy!! But it is such a nice place, and so refreshing after being on the mainland." Mel: "My equivalent role in Tasmania is $70-80k less. The average mainland role are frequently $30k different to Tasmanian roles." Jason: "At least half of my 25 cousins are on the mainland because of the job situation." Raven: "I do an equivalent job [in NSW] to one that paid me $45k in Tasmania and I make over $100k p/a and I'm no longer freezing all the time too." Deborah: "I took a $20,000 a year pay cut. Moving to Tassie was the best thing I ever did. You know, money isn't everything. I have a superb quality of life." Not the right jobs available in Tasmania Tasmania does not have a job shortage but rather a job mix problem, Mr Felsman said. Job vacancies in Tasmania have grown faster than those in any other state since the pandemic. "Job vacancies are actually up by 146 per cent [in Tasmania] in that period through to the middle of 2026," Mr Felsman said. The state had about 5,800 vacancies in May this year. But the demand for workers in Tasmania is concentrated in lower-paid frontline jobs in health, care, hospitality, education and farming. "The hardest jobs to find are the corporate, tech and engineering roles that anchor a career ladder, a big part of why some workers leave," Mr Felsman said. Alongside Tasmania's job vacancy rate sits an unemployment rate of 4.9 per cent (June 2026), the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows. It reflects that the jobs on offer do not match the skills or location of those looking for work. Tasmania also has a sicker, older population, which means participation in the labour market is the lowest in the country at 60.6 per cent (June 2026) compared with the national figure of 67 per cent. Bright spots on the horizon There are some upsides to Tasmania's job market. Loading... Paul Blacklow said there might be opportunities for Tasmanians to move up in their careers. It can be difficult for employers to fill higher-grade specialist positions, he said, and an aging and retiring workforce could accelerate that. "It does allow some people with less experience a chance at a higher role to prove themselves, so there are potentially great opportunities in Tasmania's job market," Mr Blacklow said. He also believes artificial intelligence could be less of a disruptor to the Tasmanian jobs market compared with other states. "Primarily because we do have a large proportion of our economy in making things, so the larger agricultural sector, mining and manufacturing," Mr Blacklow said. However, it has been a difficult year for manufacturing in Tasmania, with the closure of Liberty Bell Bay manganese smelter leaving 200 workers without jobs. Boag's Brewery in Launceston is closing its doors in November, affecting 42 jobs. There have also been concerns about the future of Nystar and Bell Bay Aluminium. Both industrials are among the state's biggest employers.